Projecting the NBA Draft

After posting the results from my similarity scores system, I discovered that my system is by no means the only one out there. I was already aware of Ed Weiland's work over at Hoops Analyst but not aware of the recent postings by Kevin Pelton at Basketball Prospectus or the work of Richard Lu at Draft Outcast.

All of these systems provide a different perspective - Weiland's system uses data from college players who didn't make it; Pelton's system compares projected rookie seasons and Lu's looks at how players will fit into the team whom they were drafted by. To add something new to the discussion, I decided to make career PER projections.

First off, I made some modifications to my similarity scores system. The categories are now weighted as follows:

5: Age
4: Height, Stls/PF, Blks/PF
3: Weight, Pure point rating, Rb/40, 3p/FGA
2: FTA/FGA, Pts/40

Honestly, adding weights didn't change the rankings very much, so even though the weights are more art than science, I'm comfortable that I'm not adding much bias to the results.

Having generated lists of comps for every draft pick, I then averaged the career NBA PER for their comp list, weighted by the strength of the comparison.

Without any further ado, here are the results:

Player	Mean PER	Comps
Blake Griffin	18.79	9
DeJuan Blair	17.51	6
Jonny Flynn	17.09	13
James Harden	16.69	10
Nick Calathes	16.07	9
Tyreke Evans	15.45	28
Stephen Curry	15.28	13
Patrick Mills	15.28	16
Austin Daye	14.67	12
DeMar DeRozan	14.54	18
Jrue Holiday	14.17	5
Ty Lawson	14.14	10
Jeff Teague	13.76	21
Lester Hudson	13.70	1
Darren Collison	13.69	28
Tyler Hansbrough	13.52	18
James Johnson	13.38	78
Ahmad Nivins	12.95	49
Jordan Hill	12.93	112
Jon Brockman	12.87	50
B.J. Mullens	12.85	2
Danny Green	12.80	58
Derrick Brown	12.76	65
Chinemelu Elonu	12.69	38
Eric Maynor	12.61	57
DeMarre Carroll	12.61	80
Earl Clark	12.60	56
Chase Budinger	12.60	103
Terrence Williams	12.56	33
Gerald Henderson	12.54	85
Jeff Pendergraph	12.50	100
Hasheem Thabeet	12.45	2
Dante Cunningham	12.40	95
Marcus Thornton	12.33	89
Taj Gibson	12.33	28
Wayne Ellington	12.28	103
A.J. Price	12.23	59
Toney Douglas	12.01	77
Sam Young	11.98	36
Jodie Meeks	11.97	77
Robert Dozier	11.83	31
DaJuan Summers	11.67	49
Jack McClinton	11.66	5
Jermaine Taylor	11.61	49
Taylor Griffin	11.47	55
Robert Vaden	11.40	15
Goran Suton	11.23	27
Calvin Brock	11.07	33
Chester Frazier	10.41	15

Interestingly, these results line up pretty well with my own subjective feelings about the draft. Blake Griffin, James Harden and Tyreke Evans are viewed here as strong top 5 picks while DeJuan Blair and Nick Calathes stand out as sleepers. Interestingly, the system is not as high on Ty Lawson as I am, as undersized points don't have a great history, and prefers Jonny Flynn and even Patrick Mills. I'm not sure Flynn or Mills are quite as good as their comps, but they both fit the mold of quality NBA guards. Also don't read anything into the low ranking of Hasheem Thabeet - with only 2 comparable players and neither being strong comps at that, he is too unique of a player for this system to really apply to him.

What I like about this system is that most later draft picks are seen as 'generic' players, meaning they have tons of valid comps and not great projected PERs. For the higher picks, this is not so much the case, suggesting they have much more of a future as stars. For high picks like Jordan Hill and Gerald Henderson who have a ton of comps, this may be a sign that they are destined to be role players. I also included Illini alums Chester Frazier and Calvin Brock, two players who were not drafted and are not expected to make a summer league roster, to test the system. Interestingly, they are the two lowest-ranked players here, which gives me more faith in the system. Now we will just have to sit back and see if the 2009-10 season confirms our predictions!

NBA Draft Grades, Western Conference

And now the West!

Dallas Mavericks

Selected: G Rodrique Beaubois, G Nick Calathes, F Ahmad Nivins
Grade: A

Calathes:

Derrick Rose (868)
Javaris Crittenton (855)
Devin Harris (840)
Mike Bibby (836)
Derek Anderson (836)

Nick Calathes should provide a very interesting test in the cliched 'stats vs. scouts' debate. His comps may seem surprising but he was very similar to this group in terms of scoring, passing, rebounding, etc... He is taller than these players, and probably not as athletic, but otherwise, comes up as surprisingly similar. He's versatile, can shoot, and can pass. I think he's a huge steal at #45, so hopefully he won't get stashed away in Greece and never see the NBA.

Nivins:

Maceo Baston (893)
Jason Lawson (882)
Walter Sharpe (860)
Etan Thomas (856)
Don Reid (853)

Nivins' best hope is to play an Etan Thomas-type role off the bench.

Denver Nuggets
Selected: G Ty Lawson
Grade: A

Similar to:

Jameer Nelson (855)
Antonio Daniels (820)
Steve Francis (815)
Jarrett Jack (812)
Marcus Banks (812)

Another player who Hugh and I loved much more than his draft position would indicate. Yeah he's short, but he had a close to perfect season offensively (3.5 ast/to ratio and shot .532 from the field and .472 from 3, offensive rating of 134) and was the key reason that North Carolina won the championship. I'd like to see him get a chance to start right away, but I think he'll immediately be able to take Anthony Carter's spot as the backup for Billups in Denver's rotation. His comps speak well to his talents, although he is a fairly unique player.

Golden State Warriors
Selected: G Stephen Curry
Grade: A-

Similar to:

Alphonso Ford (855)
Jay Williams (849)
Rashad McCants (826)
Rodney Stuckey (824)
Tony Delk (821)

Curry's list of comparable players is good, not great. Ford played in an even smaller conference than Davidson, so I wouldn't fear that comparison too much. Everyone else is solid (or at least Williams likely would have been), but the career of McCants or Delk would be disappointing for Curry. He's not all that comparable to these players, so I think he can surpass them. I don't see Curry as a superstar but I think he will be a very good player, and will thrive in the Warriors' uptempo system.

Houston Rockets
Selected: G Jermaine Taylor, G Sergio Llull, F Chase Budinger
Grade: B+

Taylor:

Rashad McCants (895)
Courtney Lee (886)
Kareem Rush (874)
Keith Bogans (873)
Shawn Respert (872)

Based on this list, Taylor looks strictly like a scorer off the bench, but that's fine with a round 2 pick.

Budinger:

Michael Finley (914)
Jim Jackson (904)
Keith Bogans (895)
Quincy Lewis (893)
Jarvis Hayes (892)

Hard to know what to make of these comps. Some best-case scenarios (Finley, Jackson) and some worst-case (Bogans, Lewis, Hayes). I suspect he'll be more like the latter 3 than the first 2 but the Rockets won't mind using a second-round pick to find out.

Los Angeles Clippers
Selected: F Blake Griffin
Grade: A

Similar to:

Zach Randolph (893)
Elton Brand (870)
Kevin Love (868)
Carlos Boozer (846)
Marreese Speights (836)

As expected, a dynamic list of comps for Blake Griffin. Ironically, his future teammate tops his list. Zach Randolph is a headcase, but does put up great scoring and rebounding numbers. Griffin will provide at least his production with better shooting percentages, defense and leadership. A slam-dunk #1 pick for the Clippers. And no, I don't believe they're cursed, only severely mismanaged.

Los Angeles Lakers
Selected: F Chinemelu Elonu
Grade: B-

Similar to:

DeAndre Jordan (880)
Hilton Armstrong (861)
James Augustine (860)
Amal McCaskill (854)
Erick Dampier (847)

Elonu probably won't ever make the league, but no one expects much from the #59 pick anyways.

Memphis Grizzlies
Selected: C Hasheem Thabeet, F DeMarre Carroll, F Sam Young
Grade: D

Thabeet:

Etan Thomas (821)
Brendan Haywood (795)
Alvin Jones (789)
Dikembe Mutombo (773)
Jim McIlvaine (771)

Thabeet isn't really all that similar to anyone, besides Etan Thomas. I'm not sure whether this is a good thing or not. It could mean that he is a player who will be uniquely talented or uniquely unfit for the NBA. My personal take is that although he is a good shotblocker, he is not a Mutombo-level defender. And he would have to be to justify the #2 pick considering his lack of scoring ability. I think the Grizzlies will regret taking Thabeet over Rubio.

Carroll:

Doug Edwards (907)
Jeff Nordgaard (903)
Bryon Russell (895)
Craig Smith (891)
Ryan Gomes (881)

The late first round may still have been early for Carroll, if Craig Smith and Ryan Gomes are his upside. I like his chances of reaching that level, though.

Young:

Chris Mills (904)
Ed O'Bannon (894)
Chris King (892)
Eric Piatkowski (882)
Josh Howard (881)

I was never very excited about Sam Young, considering he's already 24, but the Josh Howard comparison does intrigue me. A senior season comparison:

Howard: 32.3 min, 19.5 pts, 8.3 rbs, 1.9 asts, 2.1 stl, 1.6 blks, .373 3P
Young: 31.8 min, 19.2 pts, 6.3 rbs, 1.1 asts, 1.0 stl, 0.8 blks, .372 3P

It's close, but Howard is the better rebounder, and significantly, accumulated a lot more steals and blocks, suggesting superior athleticism. He was also a year younger. I'm guessing Young winds up closer to Ed O'Bannon, but I wouldn't mind being wrong.

Minnesota Timberwolves
Selected: G Ricky Rubio, G Jonny Flynn, G Wayne Ellington, F Henk Norel
Grade: C

I hate to give them such a low grade after stealing Rubio at #5, but taking another pure point guard at #6 was baffling. I can only hope that David Kahn was bluffing when he said that Rubio and Flynn can play together in the backcourt. I'm not sure Stephen Curry can guard SGs either but he would be a better backcourt mate for Rubio than Flynn. At least they traded Ty Lawson and Nick Calathes!

My take on Rubio is that at the very least he will be a great passer and ball thief, as well as a solid rebounder. He does have serious scoring and shooting issues, but he is also still only 18, and shooting is the easiest thing for a player to fix. Point guards generally have the longest development curves and the fact that he was so successful as a professional at ages 17 and 18 makes him the #2 prospect in the draft in my mind.

Players similar to Flynn:

Mike Bibby (879)
Jameer Nelson (854)
Antonio Daniels (852)
Rajon Rondo (848)
Chris Paul (846)

I think point guards are tough to predict, but this group is nothing but promising for Flynn. He is young and can pass, so the Wolves can hope the jump shot comes later.

Ellington:

Voshon Lenard (905)
Charles Smith (900)
James Collins (891)
Khalid Reeves (880)
Delonte West (877)

It's safe to say that Ellington won't be more than a role player.

New Orleans Hornets
Selected: G Darren Collison, G Marcus Thornton
Grade: B

Collison:

Erick Barkley (896)
Jason Terry (894)
Chris Duhon (860)
Jameer Nelson (855)
Adonis Jordan (854)

Collison's comps are all over the place. I see him more as a solid backup, so Chris Duhon seems like a good bet.

Thornton:

Rashad McCants (902)
Courtney Lee (900)
Bob Sura (889)
Charles Smith (883)
Voshon Lenard (878)

Nothing spectacular, but all of these players had roles in the league. A solid second round pick.

Oklahoma City Thunder
Selected: G James Harden, C B.J. Mullens, G Robert Vaden
Grade: A-

Harden:

Mike Miller (876)
Baron Davis (843)
Bob Sura (819)
Derrick Rose (818)
Jared Dudley (816)

I like Harden and don't even mind that the Thunder took him over Rubio. He's a pretty unique player (witness Derrick Rose as his fourth-best comp) but I think he can be even better than Mike Miller. I see the Thunder making a leap towards 40 wins this year, with Harden playing an immediate role.

Mullens:

DeAndre Jordan (847)
Roy Hibbert (829)
Dan McClintock (825)
Brendan Haywood (824)
Joel Przybilla (816)

It seems apt that Mullens' top comp is DeAndre Jordan, another disappointing freshman center who slid 20+ spots from where he would have gone 15 years ago. Jordan did have a promising rookie year, and the only outright bust on this list is McClintock. I like Mullens emerging as a solid rotation center, a la Przybilla, down the line, but the Thunder will have to be patient.

Vaden:

Randy Foye (869)
Cuonzo Martin (861)
James Collins (859)
Brandon Rush (847)
Cuttino Mobley (835)

Vaden has promise as a backup SG as long as he doesn't have too many games like this one.

Phoenix Suns
Selected: F Earl Clark, F Taylor Griffin
Grade: D+

Clark:

Robert Horry (926)
Terence Morris (895)
Dominic McGuire (892)
LeRon Ellis (880)
Jerome Moiso (864)

This list lends credence to my theory that Clark is not a player failing to live up to great talent, but simply a player who's not really all that talented in the first place. If he can develop a better jump shot, he could have an Horry-type career. If not, he may well wash out of the NBA.

Griffin:

Chris Owens (862)
Bryon Russell (861)
A.J. Bramlett (859)
Dickey Simpkins (858)
Matt Barnes (854)

I realize it's only a second-round pick, but there's something humiliating about how the Suns keep drafting the less-talented brother. To be honest, I don't think there's any way Taylor Griffin would have been drafted if not for Blake. 9.6 points and 5.8 rebounds a game is not going to get it done on the NBA level.

Portland Trail Blazers
Selected: F Victor Claver, F Jeff Pendergraph, F Dante Cunningham, G Patrick Mills
Grade: C

For once, I felt like Kevin Pritchard was just making deals for the sake of making deals. He got four draft picks, but how many will be on the team next year? I would say two at most.

Pendergraph:

Malcolm Mackey (917)
Bison Dele (907)
Shawnelle Scott (901)
David Lee (900)
Anthony Avent (892)

The David Lee comparison is nice, but on the whole, Pendergraph's comps don't hint at any unseen promise. Shooting 66% from the field was nice though.

Cunningham:

LeRon Ellis (906)
Matt Barnes (901)
J.R. Henderson (894)
Sean Lampley (892)
Luc Richard Mbah a Moute (889)

Well, Cunningham and Villanova were a nice story this year, but I don't see him making much of an impact on the NBA.

Mills:

Jason Terry (878)
B.J. Tyler (864)
Tyronn Lue (861)
Mike Bibby (851)
A.J. Guyton (851)

I was surprised by how far Mills fell, but to tell the truth, his statistics never seemed to match his reputation. That said, two former Arizona stars (Terry and Bibby) turn up here, so he may yet have some potential.

Sacramento Kings
Selected: G Tyreke Evans, F Omri Casspi, F Jon Brockman
Grade: B

Evans:
Michael Redd (898)
Paul Pierce (884)
Tim Thomas (863)
Andre Emmett (861)
Ricky Davis (860)

You have to like the comparisons to Redd and Pierce, not so much the comparisons to Thomas and Davis. I'm not sure the Kings should have taken Evans over Rubio, but I still think Evans will be a pretty good player. His flaws are efficiency and shot selection, which are the flaws you want a flawed freshman prospect to have, because they're the most easily correctible. The comps to Tim Thomas and Ricky Davis are a reminder of what happens to a player that never corrects those flaws.

San Antonio Spurs
Selected: F DeJuan Blair, G Jack McClinton, G Nando de Colo
Grade: A

Blair:

Zach Randolph (867)
Sean May (838)
Paul Millsap (831)
Donnell Harvey (815)
Wayne Simien (809)

Well, Blair's comps do say more bench power forward than stud, like Blake Griffin. Then again, May and Millsap have been pretty productive on a per-minute basis, and the numbers here are very low, speaking to Blair's uniqueness. In short, his plummet to 37 was a travesty, ACLs or no ACLs, and the Spurs are looking a lot stronger than they did a week ago.

McClinton:

Dan Dickau (871)
Will Solomon (862)
Salim Stoudamire (848)
Lionel Chalmers (832)
Bryce Drew (827)

McClinton is a great shooter, but so was Salim Stoudamire, and that wasn't enough for him to stick in the league. McClinton will take the same route.

Utah Jazz
Selected: G Eric Maynor, F Goran Suton
Grade: C+

Maynor:

Terrence Rencher (867)
Luke Ridnour (864)
Elmer Bennett (863)
Jeff McInnis (860)
Chris Smith (853)

It's hard not to like Maynor if you saw him hit the game winning shot against Duke in the NCAA Tournament two years ago. But his numbers don't look as good when you remember that they were put up against small college competition. I'm a little more optimistic than these comps, but the overall picture is not a great one.

Suton:

Mark Pope (875)
A.J. Bramlett (855)
Shawnelle Scott (850)
Jamie Feick (845)
Andrew DeClercq (845)

Not a whole lot to endorse about Suton, much as I admired his performance in the NCAAs.

2009 Draft Grades, Eastern Conference

In a rare burst of timely and topical coverage for this blog, here are grades for last night's draft, starting with the Eastern Conference. Grades are given not only on who was selected, but also who they passed over, and how the player selected fits in with their team. And to add something unique to this blog, I will use my similarity scores system to help evaluate prospects.

The similarity scores, are as always, a work in progress, but I'm pleased with the results. I have a database of NBA players' career college numbers from the 1991 draft to last year (I started with 1991 to only include players who had the 3 point line throughout their college career). I then make standardized comparisons across age, height, weight and the major statistical categories, similar to the method once in use at basketball-reference.com. The numbers aren't particularly scientific, so should be interpreted relative to each other. Over 900 is a very strong comparison, under 850 is a weaker one.

Atlanta Hawks
Selected: #19 - G Jeff Teague, Wake Forest
Grade: B

Similar to:
Marcus Banks (854)
Tyronn Lue (851)
Keyon Dooling (846)
Luis Flores (843)
Chauncey Billups (839)

Teague's comparables look bad at first. He is most similar to a set of undersized combo guards who could never quite play the point in the league. Teague will likely have this same issue. On the bright side, his fifth-best comp is Chauncey Billups. Let's compare their sophomore seasons.

Billups: 32.7 min, 19.1 pts, 4.9 rebs, 4.8 asts, 2.9 to, .413 FG, .401 3P
Teague: 32.0 min, 18.8 pts, 3.3 rebs, 3.5 asts, 3.4 to, .485 FG, .441 3P

Teague was actually the superior scorer if you factor in shooting percentages. But Billups trumps him in every other regard and most significantly had a far superior assist-turnover ratio. It is likely that Teague will not be able to play point like Billups and thus will be relegated to a scoring role off the bench. Still, not a bad pickup at #19. His ability to shoot and drive ought to make him better than his other comps.

Boston Celtics
Selected: #58 - G Lester Hudson, Tennessee-Martin
Draft Grade: B

Similar to:
Tony Delk (829)
Todd Day (796)
Alphonso Ford (789)
James Collins (785)
Juan Dixon (781)


Not really much to say here. I did grab Hudson as a late first-round sleeper in our mock draft, but as a 6'1" 24 year old shooting guard from a small conference (OVC represent!), I imagine he doesn't have much of a future in the league. A fine pick at #58, for whatever it's worth.

Charlotte Bobcats
Selected: #12 - G Gerald Henderson, Duke;
#40 - F Derrick Brown, Xavier
Draft Grade: C+

Henderson - similar to:

Cedric Henderson (897)
Dave Johnson (895)
Willie Green (895)
Michael Finley (890)
Marcus Williams (888)

This isn't a very promising list of similar players for Henderson. Michael Finley would be the best bet, but he was much better in the pros than in college, so I wouldn't rely on that similarity. Henderson's 9th best comp is Doug Christie, and that seems like about his high point to me - a solid defensive guard who can provide enough offense to start. I see him more as a bench stopper so #12 may have been a reach.

Brown - similar to:

Mark Hendrickson (895)
James Augustine (875)
Bobby Jones (872)
Anthony Miller (860)
Matt Steigenga (860)

Just below this list is Richard Jefferson, but clearly Brown's similarity scores don't suggest he will be a second-round gem for Charlotte.

Chicago Bulls
Selected: #16 - F James Johnson
#26 - F Taj Gibson
Grade: C-

Perhaps this grade is too harsh, but I was mad when the Bulls selected James Johnson over Blair and infuriated when they selected Gibson. Oh well, let's look at the comps.

James Johnson:

Bison Dele (876)
Brian Cook (866)
Nick Collison (864)
Kirk Haston (863)
Marcus Haislip (860)

I'm optimistic he can be a Nick Collison type player but this isn't a very inspiring group. Johnson just isn't that exciting of a prospect to me.

Taj Gibson:

Stephane Lasme (881)
Eric Mobley (877)
Kenyon Martin (874)
Anthony Miller (866)
Mark Pope (859)

The Kenyon Martin comparison is intriguing, but Gibson never had a season like Martin's senior year where he averaged 18.9 pts, 9.7 rebs, and 3.5 blks on .568 shooting. Gibson's numbers from this year look comparable but he only averaged 14.3 pts and played 4 more minutes per game. They should have taken Blair.

Cleveland Cavaliers
Selected: #30 - G Christian Eyenga
#46 - F Danny Green
#57 - F Emir Preldzic
Grade: A-
I don't know much about Eyenga or Preldzic, but at the point in the draft where they were taken, they're low risks. What about Danny Green?

Similar to:

JR Giddens (897)
Wesley Person (896)
Tayshaun Prince (892)
Brandon Rush (887)
Rodney Carney (882)

I really think Green can be as valuable in the NBA as Gerald Henderson. Maybe Henderson has more offensive potential but Green could be a defensive stopper on the wing and can hit the 3. A better version of Bruce Bowen perhaps and a great pickup in round 2.

Detroit Pistons
Selected: #15 - F Austin Daye
#35 - F DaJuan Summers
#39 - F Jonas Jerebko
Grade: B+

Austin Daye:

Charlie Villanueva (856)
Jumaine Jones (843)
Robert Horry (842)
Lamar Odom (835)
Josh Childress (830)

I have mixed feelings about Daye. On the one hand, his statistical profile has a lot of good indicators. He's 6'10", gets a lot of blocks and steals and shot above 40% from 3. His most similar players also paint a promising picture. On the other hand, he played worse on a per-minute basis as a sophomore than as a freshman, is super skinny, and failed to take over games the way his talent suggests he could. A lot of draft analysts have discussed Earl Clark by saying that he would have a frustrating career a la Lamar Odom or Tim Thomas. I don't think Clark is in Odom's league, but Daye might well be (and Odom is his 4th best comp!). Not a bad risk at #15, overall.

DaJuan Summers:

Austin Croshere (886)
Chris Crawford (882)
Walt Williams (881)
Matt Barnes (879)
Chris Jefferies (877)

I was never high on Summers, but he looks surprisingly decent here, at least for a 2nd round pick.

Indiana Pacers
Selected: #13 - F Tyler Hansbrough
#52 - G A.J. Price
Grade: B

Tyler Hansbrough:

Lee Nailon (857)
Darius Songaila (857)
Leon Powe (851)
Carl Landry (850)
Adam Keefe (844)

Despite his reputation as a player who gives 100%, Hansbrough is not a great rebounder and an awful shotblocker. These are reminders that he probably does have some serious athletic limitations. That said, his comparable players look surprisingly solid. I don't see him as more than a strong bench player, but in this draft that's not a terrible thing to get at #13.

A.J. Price

Jerome Allen (922)
Mateen Cleaves (899)
Travis Best (892)
Luke Ridnour (892)
Erick Barkley (892)

Not all that promising, although a career like Best or Ridnour's would be great this late in the draft. I doubt the Pacers are expecting much from Price anyways.

Miami Heat
Selected: #42 - G Patrick Beverley
Grade: B+

Similar to:
Daniel Gibson (896)
Jordan Farmar (895)
Kenny Satterfield (880)
Mo Williams (863)
Raymond Felton (852)

Since Beverley spent a year playing in Ukraine, these similarity scores reflect his comparables had he been drafted a year ago. I'm skeptical that he's really this good considering he's 6'1", not a good passer, and dropped off from his freshman to his sophomore year at Arkansas. That said, he is great as a second round pick because of his potential to be a top combo guard off the bench.

Milwaukee Bucks
Selected: #10 - G Brandon Jennings
#41 - G Jodie Meeks
Grade: C+

Perhaps #10 is late enough to take a risk on Jennings, but he really struggled in the Euroleague, shooting under 40% and failing to make an impact as a passer. I'm always skeptical with wait and see picks, because good players are usually good right away. If any position is an exception, though, it's point guard, so I'm willing to give the Bucks some benefit of the doubt. Hugh vehemently disagrees with my willingness to give the Bucks any credit, citing how many actual PGs ("you know... ones who actually get assists") were still on the board.

As for Jodie Meeks:

JJ Redick (917)
Allan Houston (905)
Steve Nash (890)
OJ Mayo (890)
Terry Dehere (887)

Hey, this guy looks pretty good. Redick is the best comp in my mind (and in the system) - high scoring, good shooting, few contributions anywhere else. The Nash comp doesn't hold water but Nash wasn't as great a passer in college as in the pros, I suppose. I will say that there was probably little to distinguish Meeks from Redick besides hype. But considering that Redick is no more than a bench player for the Magic, it's hard to get too upset about Meeks falling to the second round.

New Jersey Nets
Selected: #11 - F Terrence Williams
Grade: B

Mardy Collins (872)
Scott Burrell (868)
Aaron McKie (853)
Andre Iguodala (830)
Jeryl Sasser (825)

His comps are a mixed bag, but the Nets would have to be heartened by the Andre Iguodala comparison. Let's take a closer look and add Jeryl Sasser, another mid-first-round pick who was an unequivocal bust.

Iguodala (as a sophomore): 32.1 min, 12.9 pts, 8.4 rebs, 4.9 asts, .450 FG, .315 3P, .788 FT
Williams: 34.2 min, 12.5 pts, 8.6 rebs, 5.0 asts, .431 FG, .385 3P, .581 FT
Sasser: 34.9 min, 17.0 pts, 8.3 rebs, 4.2 asts, .394 FG, .287 3P, .718 FT

Right away we can see that Williams is not as much of an offensive liability that Sasser was (although he was his first two seasons). This comparison even puts him on the same ground as Iguodala. The difference is that Iguodala was only a sophomore. The 2 year difference may be a big one. Even so, I like the versatility of Williams' game enough to think that this was a nice pick at #11, even if he's not as good as Iguodala.

New York Knicks
Selected: #8 - F Jordan Hill
#29 - G Toney Douglas
Grade: D

Hill:

Bison Dele (930)
Anthony Avent (922)
Malcolm Mackey (921)
Matt Fish (907)
Channing Frye (896)

Suffice it to say that I don't think much of Hill's prospects. His numbers are wholly unremarkable (witness the high similarity scores) and his similar players never did much in the NBA. The Knicks got hit hard by not landing Stephen Curry.

Douglas:

Vonteego Cummings (904)
Cuttino Mobley (902)
Miles Simon (884)
Randy Foye (883)
Luis Flores (879)

Douglas will hope to have a career like Mobley, who was also a later pick in the draft.

Philadelphia 76ers
Selected: #17 - G Jrue Holiday
Grade: A-

Similar to:

Russell Westbrook (829)
Stephon Marbury (821)
Delonte West (817)
Derrick Rose (815)
Will Avery (807)

At #17, Holiday has great value. I'm not sure how much to read into his similarity scores, considering that the numbers are relatively low and there aren't that many young guards who have been drafted in the first round. Still, it's hard not to see his comp list as a ringing endorsement, as long as we ignore Will Avery.

Toronto Raptors
Selected: #9 - F DeMar DeRozan
Grade: C

Similar to:

Matt Steigenga (875)
Richard Jefferson (869)
Julian Wright (860)
Jeff Nordgaard (849)
Matt Barnes (846)

Hopefully it's clear why I'm skeptical DeRozan will be any good. He doesn't have 3-point range, is a poor passer, and didn't even get a whole lot of steals and blocks, despite his great athleticism. On the plus side, he did come on late in the year as a scorer, so it's possible his numbers underrate him. His best hope is Richard Jefferson, who had a similarly underwhelming college career, but blossomed in the NBA as a 20 ppg scorer.

2009 NBA Mock Draft

Well, we have decided to bring this blog out of hibernation for our favorite annual tradition... the 2009 Hugh Williams and Jeremiah Methven Mock Draft! Our mock draft is not meant to show how we think things will go, only how we think they should go. In our cases, we are more than willing to reach for our favorite players and depart from conventional wisdom.

1. LAC - Blake Griffin



H: Unlike the last two years where there's been a furious debate about who the best player is this year's crop provided a very easy choice for the #1 team. Simply but, Clippers win, Griffin loses.

2. MEM - Ricky Rubio


J: Ultimately, I couldn't pass on Rubio here. There is a valid concern that his scoring may never be up to par, but he will provide an immediate impact in nearly every other category. He can play right away and best of all, a good point guard ages like a fine wine. Memphis might be well served by trading the pick, however, because I wouldn't count out Mike Conley just yet.

3. OKC - Tyreke Evans



H: I think the debate here was purely between Evans and Harden. Yes, Thabeet would've done a nice job fortifying their frontcourt but Evans and Harden are on a tier above Thabeet in my book, thus not warranting a selection based on position. Evans is a combo guard who can score in a variety of fashions, rebounds, assists, and can provide the Thunder with a potentially deadly set of guards and wings.

4. SAC - James Harden



J: A straightforward pick for the Kings as far as I'm concerned. I don't see guys like Thabeet or Flynn as the sure thing that Harden is. Versatility is critical for a shooting guard prospect and versatility happens to be Harden's calling card.

5. MIN - Ty Lawson



J: And Hugh reaches to grab Ty Lawson at #5. I love Lawson too - the history of sub 6'0" point guards is not in his favor, but none of his predecessors could boast of his absurd efficiency numbers on the collegiate level either. Worst case, he's a solid backup. Maybe a reach at #5, but in a draft this weak, maybe not.

H: I'll be straight, I am highly skeptical of the point guards being touted as going in the lottery. Lawson's the same size as Flynn but is superior in shooting, rebounding, assists, steals, and TOs. As for comparing Lawson to Holiday...the Tar Heel far exceeds the Bruin in all categories other than size, rebounding, and being two years older. Lawson has experience leading a premier team, has all the assets, just with none of the flash.

6. MIN - Stephen Curry



J: Curry and Lawson would probably get torched defensively, so this may not be the ideal backcourt for the Timberwolves. But lest I get torched for making this pick, I should stress that we were unaware of the Washington-Minnesota deal until about midway through our mock draft. Curry's college numbers are unbelievable and if he seemed at times to be mortal this year, it was only because he had to carry a huge load of Davidson's possessions.

7. GS - Nick Calathes



J: Hugh really reached here, but statistically, Calathes surpasses every point guard in the draft besides Lawson.

H: I can go through the exact same defense for Calathes as I would for Lawson. I think Curry is a better fit for Golden State's run and gun system, but Golden State needs a running buddy for Ellis and Calathes' short-comings athletically are mitigated by his size and his ability to score both by getting to the line and shooting from range.

8. NYK - Jonny Flynn



J: Assuming Flynn isn't having nightmares about his last visit to Madison Square Garden, this would be a nice pick for the Knicks. I'm not really sure what to make of Flynn. Point guards are notoriously tough to predict. I will say that he is cast from the same clay as point guards like Chris Paul and Mike Bibby. Whether he is as good remains to be seen.

9. TOR - Hasheem Thabeet


H: Thabeet falls far in our draft for several reasons. While no one doubts his defensive capabilities, but his offensive game entirely consists of getting the ball in the low post and acting as a finisher. He's also 22 and yes he's only been playing basketball for a limited time, but his overall athleticism improved minimally over three years and at times often looks stiff and uncoordinated on the floor. Still, if he falls this far Toronto will be ecstatic to play him alongside Chris Bosh.

J: He's no Dikembe Mutombo.

H: Well put.

10. MIL - DeJuan Blair


J: I realize that the real Bucks would take a point guard like Holiday or Jennings here. But this is my draft, and here, the Bucks take a player who will immediately produce and rebound. He and Scott Skiles would be BFFs, take my word for it.

H: I hate you.

11. NJ - Terrence Williams


H: As a Nets fan I'm drooling at the opportunity to play a lineup of Harris, Carter, SF, Blair, Lopez. It's the perfect lineup to lure the ultimate SF. Anyways, I digress. Terrence Williams is a very versatile player who rebounds, defends, and passes well. His scoring is something to be desired but hopefully Lopez' emergence will compensate. The Nets need good complimentary players for especially at the forward positions where they are incredibly weak.

J: And by ultimate SF Hugh of course means Adam Morrison, last seen leading the Lakers to the NBA title.

12. CHA - Austin Daye



J: I considered taking DeMar DeRozan but instead I went with Daye, another player who has yet to reach his potential, but unlike DeRozan, Daye statistical indicators of greatness. Daye racked up a ton of steals and blocks and shot 42% on 3s. Perhaps he will never get his head in the game but as long as you're drafting for upside, I would rather take a guy like Daye who at least has shown the ability to do greater things.

13. IND - Jordan Hill



H: I'm not a huge Hill fan, but he's fallen far enough and the Pacers are need of some depth at their front line. I'm skeptical that Hill can cut it as a starter (he really lacks any prominent skills), but there's no reason to believe he can't make an impact off the bench.

J: Jordan Hill plummets in our draft, and rightfully so. I am convinced that he will be nothing more than a journeyman power forward. There are no particular indicators of his athleticism in his statistics, always a bad sign.

14. PHO - Earl Clark



J: I waffled on this pick for the Suns and wound up selecting Clark. In retrospect, I probably should have taken DeRozan here, who blew up in March. Clark has a lot of skills but is more Tim Thomas than Lamar Odom (Odom was a much better college player).

15. DET - Gerald Henderson


H: Henderson's smart, defensive style of play fit perfectly into Detroit's system. However his offensive game only began to emerge his junior year and I'm not fully sold on his actual peak. Regardless, I think Detroit could easily grab themselves a solid lock down defender who isn't a liability on offense.

J: Solid pick for Detroit, although I don't think Henderson has the offensive game to be more than a defensive stopper off the bench.

16. CHI - DeMar DeRozan


J: As a part-time Bulls fan, I hate to bring a workout wonder like DeRozan to Chicago. But at #16 he would be a great value. The risk of him being a bust is more than compensated by his upside if he were to fall this low. Furthermore, he did emerge as a scorer towards the end of the season, although he still showcased a decided lack of an all-around game.

17. PHI - Jrue Holiday


J: The bleeding stops for Holiday. Apart from his lack of scoring, he's not a bad prospect. Yet I don't think there's any way he would have gone in the lottery last year and our mock draft reflects that.

H: I'm really not sold on Holiday, but I ragged on Westbrook last year and he emerged to have a fairly impressive first year. However, Westbrook was a better scorer, particularly when it came to getting to the line, a skill that allowed Westbrook to shoot below 40% but still score at a reasonable pace. Holiday is considered a top-notch defender, but as a PG running the offense is a far more important task.

18. MIN - Danny Green


J: I reached a bit for Danny Green, but I really like him. He's a low upside pick but ought to be a better version of Bruce Bowen.

H: I concur with this pick. After loading up with offensive prospects like Lawson and Curry, Green would be a nice defensive compliment at a position where the Timberwolves are a little thin,

19. ATL - Darren Collison


J: Hugh blatantly ignores the elephant in the room (Brandon Jennings) and selects a backup point guard. This is low enough in the draft that I would have rolled the dice.

H: Maybe I need to see Jennings on the court, but even those that have given him mixed reviews. I'll save my mini-rant for later, but Collison will probably not be an all-star PG but he has supplementary assists such as his ability to shoot from range and his strong defensive skills given his size. He's probably not enough to push the Hawks over the edge he should give them some flexibility with the supposed departure of Mike Bibby.

20. UTA - Tyler Hansbrough


J: Hansbrough is a poor defender and rebounder so if his scoring doesn't translate, he won't last long in the NBA. Still, I like the fit here and he isn't a bad gamble at this point in the draft.

H: Utah's unlikely to be able to retain Boozer and Millsap so hopefully Hansborough can alleviate some of the pain felt from their loss.

21. NO - Wayne Ellington


H: I very uninspired pick because I feel that's how the Hornets always address the draft. They're always on the cusp of being able to get that SG but never put the extra effort to move up some spots or make a deal.

22. DAL - Brandon Jennings


J: The Mavericks gleefully select Brandon Jennings, suddenly a low-risk and high-upside selection at #22. There's a reason he fell so far in our mock draft and it's because he was simply awful in the Euroleague. Yes, the transition to European basketball was undoubtedly a tough one. But he also shot below 40% from the field and below 30% from the 3 point line. I think he deserves to go higher than #22 but there is a reason he is sliding in other mock drafts besides ours.

H: Frankly his statistical profile is dreadful. Nothing in it warrants a selection in the first round and personality questions have begun to arise too. I feel as though his stock his entirely based on supposed potential based on athleticism. I agree it's low risk at this stage in the draft but I see Jennings' chances of making an impact of any sort as very very slim.


23. SAC - Eric Maynor


H: His profile is eerily similar to Collison's in that his upside is somewhat limited and is undersized for the position but has other skills. He shoots well from range and penetrates with a good deal of success (though he was playing for VCU). Regardless the Kings would love to find someone to take some minutes away from Udrih.

24. POR - Jeff Teague


J: This pick would force Jerryd Bayless to get his act together or lose his spot in the rotation. Teague is another talented combo guard who can provide a scoring burst off the bench.

25. OKC - B.J. Mullens


H: He's definition of a project. But hey, it's the 25th pick, the Thunder aren't competing anytime in the next two years, why not take a little gamble and hope it pays off?

26. CHI - James Johnson


J: James Johnson is another player who slipped a bit in our mock draft. I actually don't dislike him, there's just nothing in his profile that gets me excited either. He would be an excellent selection for the Bulls at #26 seeing as how they are considering taking him at #16 in real life.

27. MEM - Omri Casspi



H: Perhaps a poor man's Rudy Fernandez, except for the 3/4 position. He's an aggressive off-the-ball offensive contributor who is a good shooter and improved his range greatly this past year.

28. MIN - Lester Hudson


J: With this pick, I was trying to replicate the foresight of Hugh last year, when he selected George Hill near the end of our mock draft. Indeed, Hill was a surprise first round pick and provided a valuable bench role for the Spurs this year. Hudson is a similarly talented small-college guard. That said, Hugh put a damper on my pick by revealing that Hudson was actually more like 6'0" or 6'1" than 6'3". This makes a difference, because one of his primary skills - rebounding - will be more difficult to translate to the NBA. I still like him though.

29. LAL - Sergio Llull


H: Sadly this pick no longer belongs to the Lakers, which makes the comedy a little less profound. Regardless, Llull is an interesting PG who doesn't score a ton but is quite efficient from the line and behind the arc. He doesn't rack up a ton of assists but committed very few turnover this year in either the EURO or ACB leagues.

30. CLE - John Bryant


J: With the final pick of the 2009 Draft, the Cavs pick up a poor man's Shaquille O'Neal. I don't know if Bryant is actually good enough to stick in the NBA but he was surprisingly dominant at Santa Clara throughout his college career.

NFL Divisional Round Preview

It's been awhile since I've posted on this blog but I want to give a preview of this weekend's NFL playoff games, with regards to the four quarterback matchups.
For this preview, I am using a statistic called Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AYPA), which is simply (Pass Yards + Pass TD*10 - Interceptions *45)/Attempts).

This doesn't factor in rushing or sacks, nor does it factor in strength of teammates, but it is a nice summary statistic that is less arbitrary than the NFL's quarterback rating. I also will look beyond regular season numbers and see which quarterbacks have historically raised or lowered their games in the playoffs.

Here is a rough guideline of how to interpret the AYPA numbers:

5 - mediocre
6 - average
6.5 - above-average
7 - Pro Bowl
7.5 - MVP

The matchups:

Baltimore at Tennessee

Joe Flacco - 2008: 6.0 AYPA (rookie)
Kerry Collins - 2008: 6.0 AYPA; Career: 5.5 AYPA; Postseason: 4.75 AYPA

This matchup is difficult to assess since Flacco is a rookie. Collins has had the worst career of any of the quarterbacks still alive in the postseason, but he still may have the advantage in this matchup due to Flacco's inexperience. It is worth noting that despite Collins' mediocre career numbers, he gets worse in the playoffs. Still, I think the Titans will prevail here.

San Diego at Pittsburgh

Ben Roethlisberger - 2008: 6.0 AYPA; Career: 6.76 AYPA; Postseason: 6.20 AYPA
Philip Rivers - 2008: 8.1 AYPA; Career: 6.90 AYPA, Postseason: 6.39 AYPA

Looking at career regular season and playoff numbers, Rivers looks slightly better overall. Both have declined in the playoffs, but both are still strong playoff performers, and some decline is to be expected due to the higher quality of defenses. Based on 2008 numbers, however, Rivers crushes Roethlisberger. Rivers led the NFL in AYPA by a wide margin, and he makes the Chargers an extremely dangerous team despite their 8-8 regular season record. I picked the Steelers to win the Super Bowl in part because of Roethlisberger's past successes. Looking at these numbers, though, I am worried that this may be a mismatch in favor of Rivers. Still, I lean towards the Steelers since they have a superior defense and home field advantage, but it may be a closer game than expected.

Arizona at Carolina

Kurt Warner - 2008: 7.1 AYPA; Career: 7.11 AYPA; Postseason: 7.22 AYPA
Jake Delhomme - 2008: 7.0 AYPA; Career: 6.41 AYPA; Postseason: 7.95 AYPA

Surprisingly, this game pits the two quarterbacks with the gaudiest playoff statistics. Although I've always thought of Warner as a system quarterback, he matched his career numbers this season, and he has actually performed quite well in the playoffs, leading the Rams to the Super Bowl twice and winning once. Delhomme, for his part, transforms into a superstar in the playoffs. Apart from a 3-interception performance against Seattle in 2006, he has been scintillating in the postseason, including 323 yards and 3 TDs against the Patriots in the Super Bowl. It's only a 7 game sample size, so perhaps Delhomme is not really as good as his numbers. But given that he had a strong regular season this year, he may well prove to be the quarterback that can lead the Panthers to a Super Bowl victory.

Philadelphia at NY Giants

Donovan McNabb - 2008: 6.4 AYPA; Career: 6.32 AYPA; Postseason: 5.60 AYPA
Eli Manning - 2008: 6.3 AYPA; Career: 5.37 AYPA; Postseason: 6.01 AYPA

This is a matchup that shows why it is important to look at playoff numbers and not just regular season numbers. McNabb has been a strong regular season performer throughout his career and his 6.32 figure is very good given the number of seasons he has played. Manning's career figures are artificially lowered due to his awful rookie season, but even his best season is an average season for McNabb. In the playoffs, however, McNabb gets worse while Manning gets better. Although Manning is not and will never be a superstar, he proved last year that he is an elite game manager who can raise his game in the playoffs. Thus, I look for Manning's cool head to win this one for the Giants, although we will see if he can match Delhomme in the NFC Championship Game.

The NBA's Top 10 Small Forwards

As in the previous posts, three-year averages of adjusted plus-minus ratings follow:

1. LeBron James, +13.70
2. Ron Artest, +7.79
3. Andrei Kirilenko, +6.36
4. Paul Pierce, +6.17
5. Luol Deng, +5.88
6. Chuck Hayes, +5.75
7. Corey Maggette, +4.72
8. Peja Stojakovic, +4.66
9. Shane Battier, +4.06
10. Gerald Wallace, +3.45

Other Notables: Hedo Turkoglu (+2.78), Josh Howard (+2.49), Rashard Lewis (+1.08), Tayshaun Prince (+0.88), Caron Butler (-0.38), Bruce Bowen (-0.64), Carmelo Anthony (-1.50), Richard Jefferson (-2.18)

LeBron is #1 with a bullet, and in fact, ranks #1 among all NBA players over the last 3 seasons, and yes, he ranks ahead of Kobe. LeBron is the main reason I have cringed every time I have heard a commentator proclaim Kobe to be the best basketball player on Earth. I suspect that this sentiment has something to do with Kobe's veteran status as well as the fact that Kobe, at this point in his career, is probably more skilled on the whole. However, the reason I think that LeBron is possibly superior and at least an equal (and why Kobe falls short compared to Jordan as well) is sheer physical skill. LeBron is an absolutely dominant inside player - something that Kobe cannot match. Kobe is a great athlete, but LeBron is a freakish athlete. Even with his questionable jumper, LeBron scores at the same rate and efficiency as Kobe due to his unquestioned ability to get to the basket.

OK - enough LeBron worshipping. From this ranking, Houston is in a great position adding Artest to their already loaded roster. They are jammed at forward and Artest is another player who can't stay healthy, but at the very least they now have 63-win kind of upside (although there are a lot of ifs to make that happen). Kirilenko ranks so high primarily due to an insane 2006 rating - in truth, he was probably one of the top 10 players in the league between 2002 and 2006, but he is past his prime today, although still a valuable asset. I do enjoy that touted role players like Chuck Hayes and Shane Battier make the top 10 - Hayes is probably overrated by this metric, but Battier's defensive contributions are strong enough that I don't think #9 is an absurd placement.

As a Bulls fan it does my heart good to see Luol Deng come in at #5 - even with an off year last year, he was still much more valuable to the team than Hinrich or Gordon. In my opinion, the Bulls should rebuild around Rose, Deng, Joakim Noah, and Tyrus Thomas - with everyone else being expendable. Ben Gordon is a nice piece to have on offense but his defensive liabilities make the kind of contract he's asking for an unwise investment.

To address the lower ranking star players - it is clear to me at this point that Carmelo Anthony and Richard Jefferson, to a lesser extent, are not contributing to wins in a manner suggested by their statistics. Both, it seems, have serious defensive issues and have consistently low ratings over a 3-year period, suggesting that these results are no fluke. The Nets were not unwise to get rid of Jefferson whereas the Nuggets should seriously consider trading Carmelo or reducing his minutes to inspire him to play better defense. As for some others, Bruce Bowen's reputation dates from a few years ago - he is old now and not as valuable as he once was. Tayshaun Prince is hurt by a questionably low 2006 rating - he probably is better than this analysis indicates. Caron Butler never really came into his own until this season - in the past, he has been another weak defensive player. Stay tuned for my ranking of power forwards!

The NBA's Top 10 Shooting Guards

More 3-year adjusted plus minus rankings here, this time for shooting guards. I should note that the best way to do this would be a regression over 3 years of data rather than averaging years. I'm just waiting for the good people at Basketball Value to provide more along these lines.

1. Kobe Bryant, +11.55
2. Manu Ginobili, +9.46
3. Dwyane Wade, +7.74
4. Vince Carter, +6.34
5. Andre Iguodala, +6.16
6. Jason Richardson, +4.79
7. Michael Redd, +4.18
8. Ray Allen, +3.79
9. Tracy McGrady, +3.73
10. Kirk Snyder, +3.59

Other notables: Joe Johnson (+2.59), Jamal Crawford (+2.22), Brandon Roy (-1.01 - only 2 years though), Ben Gordon (-2.27), Kevin Martin (-2.68), Jerry Stackhouse (-3.64), Richard Hamilton (-7.41)

On the whole, I think there are fewer surprises here than on the PG list. Based on adjusted plus-minus, Kobe lives up to the hype, although as we will see with the later positional rankings, it is hardly as obvious that he is the best player on the planet as the media likes to pretend. Noticeably, Manu Ginobili ranks as a truly great player by this metric, which I think he deserves. It does surprise me that Andre Iguodala ranks in the top 5 - I suspect he has some extra value due to his defense whereas players like Michael Redd and Ray Allen give up a lot on defense. Tracy McGrady ranks a surprising 9th, well behind his former Toronto teammate Vince Carter, but his rating has decreased every year between 2006 and 2008, suggesting that his injuries are taking a toll on his production. As for Kirk Snyder ranking 10th, I suspect that it is a fluke since he simply hasn't played much in 3 years but it seems like he is definitely worth signing to a cheap contract to prove whether or not his high ranking is real.

There aren't a whole lot of star SGs who rank poorly in this metric and the ones who do seem fairly logical. Brandon Roy is probably just a victim of his youth - young players usually don't make the kind of contributions picked up by plus-minus. Ben Gordon and Kevin Martin are talented offensive players who get toasted on defense. I'm not sure why Stackhouse ranks so low, but Rip Hamilton's rating is artificially deflated due to a 2006 season where the Pistons' starting five played a huge load of minutes together, as explained by David Lewin here. Even so, Hamilton rated as a negative player in both 2007 and 2008, a quite surprising result suggesting that the Pistons' success is due to the other members of its starting five.

The NBA's Top 10 Point Guards

Presented below are three-year averages of adjusted plus-minus for the NBA's point guards. I rank the top 10 then mention some other notable names that didn't make the Top 10.

1. Steve Nash, +8.52
2. Baron Davis, +7.32
3. Jason Kidd, +7.25
4. Allen Iverson, +5.51
5. Chris Paul, +4.89
6. Jason Terry, +4.64
7. Nate Robinson, +4.00
8. Chauncey Billups, +3.85
9. Devin Harris, +3.17
10. Tony Allen, +2.51

Other Notables: Rajon Rondo, +4.00 (not included due to only 2 years in the league), Tony Parker, +1.86, Monta Ellis, +1.83, Andre Miller, +0.58, Deron Williams, -0.67, Mo Williams, -1.36, Kirk Hinrich, -2.11, TJ Ford, -2.53, Jose Calderon, -3.49, Mike Bibby, -3.58

I believe that this list shows both the advantages and pitfalls of adjusted plus-minus. There can be no doubt that Nash, Davis and Kidd have been a cut above the rest of the NBA's point guards, posting consistently high numbers over the last 3 seasons. Yet the relatively low rating of players like Chris Paul, Tony Parker, and Deron Williams might arouse skepticism. Personally, I suspect that Paul's rating should be somewhat higher, but looking at the breakdowns into offense and defense handily provided at countthebasket, it is my guess that although Paul and Nash are probably the two best offensive point guards in the game, Paul's defense is even more of a liability than Nash's and thus keeps him from joining the top 3 (for now, at least).

As for some other ratings of note, adjusted plus-minus pinpoints the Spurs' success as being primarily dependent on Duncan and Ginobili - Parker has been a winning player, but not a great one. Deron Williams' three-year average is low because of a poor rookie season; nonetheless, his rating of +2.0 over the last 2 years is still outside of the top 10 - we will have to see if this trend continues as he matures. Pretty much every other star PG who rates as a losing player (Williams, Ford, Calderon, Bibby) are there due to their defensive liabilities. From this analysis, the offensive advantages enjoyed by the Raptors from employing both Ford and Calderon were more than offset by the two getting lit up on defense.

What have we learned from this set of ratings? Point guard is the top offensive position but also the weakest defensive position in the NBA. Thanks to countthebasket.com, we can see the splits for each player (for 2008, at least). Some point guards really get killed on defense and this makes them much less valuable than their box score statistics would indicate. In the case of Steve Nash, his defense doesn't sink his rating like it does Chris Paul's but it does lower it enough that he probably wasn't the MVP in 2005 or 2006 although he was arguably the top offensive player in the league. The greatest value of adjusted plus-minus is what it tells us about individual defense, and when it shows consistent ratings over a multi-year period. Its downside of course, it its high standard errors but I believe that presenting 3-year ratings like this offsets a lot of that bias.

Baron Davis and the Clippers

With the NBA off-season now in full swing, I thought it a good time to apply a relatively new tool to the purpose of evaluating off-season transactions. That tool is adjusted plus-minus! For those not in the know, I recommend starting here and here for the most recent adjusted plus-minus data and to explain a little about what it is. For those who don't want to click, I will give a brief summary.

The plus-minus statistic by itself measures a very simple, yet enlightening phenomenon. If the Cavs outscore the Celtics by 8 points when LeBron James is on the court but are outscored by 16 points when he is off the court, LeBron gets a plus-minus of +24, reflecting the team's vastly superior performance when he is on the court. The problem is that if LeBron's teammates are poor, his plus-minus will be higher than if he played on a stronger team. Another problem is that a player who is on the court at the same time as LeBron might take undue credit for what were LeBron's positive contributions. What adjusted plus-minus does is to incorporate a multiple regression analysis that accounts for the quality of a player's teammates in computing plus-minus. Although subject to some high standard errors, using two or more seasons' worth of data gives a fairly accurate estimate of the values of each player in the NBA.

What a tool like adjusted plus-minus can allow us to do most readily is to see exactly how a move like the Clippers' signing of Baron Davis can impact the team's win-loss total. Below is a projected lineup for next year's Clippers team. This is obviously simplified, using just nine players, but should work to give us a rough estimate. Career minutes per game were used for each player when possible to project playing time, although they had to be adjusted in some cases to reflect the distribution of talent on the team. For adjusted plus-minus, I included each player's adjusted plus-minus from the previous 3 seasons, but weighted it towards the most recent season.


Baron Davis 35.5 mpg, +7.02
Cuttino Mobley 37.0 mpg, -1.42
Al Thornton 27.3 mpg, -4.43
Elton Brand 38.3 mpg, +5.91
Chris Kaman 29.1 mpg, -2.00

Tim Thomas 21.7 mpg, -0.33
Brevin Knight 16.3 mpg, +1.18
Quinton Ross 16.1 mpg, -2.33
Eric Gordon 18.7 mpg, -2.85

Adding up each player's scores and weighting for minutes played, the Clippers' 08-09 scoring margin (per 100 possessions) projects to be 3.45, which would make them about a 50 win team. Obviously, this would be a big year for the Clippers, although it would not make them a championship contender. Still, I estimate that the addition of Davis and the return of a healthy Brand should add about 9.9 points to the team's scoring margin, turning them from one of the weaker teams in the league into a legitimate playoff team.

There is of course uncertainty in this estimate. Baron Davis may not post the same high rating for a new team. Elton Brand may not be as good as he was before his injury. The estimates for Al Thornton and Eric Gordon are pretty much a shot in the dark. I gave Gordon the average rookie rating for the 2007 draft class of -2.85. Thornton's rating as a rookie was -5.57 but I adjusted it slightly upwards to account for second-year improvement. Still, without extensive study, it is hard to know how to expect Thornton's rating to change in year two. If he were to become even a league-average player, it could propel the Clippers to 55 wins or more. And of course, the Clippers' roster may change. For one, I am assuming here that they don't resign Corey Maggette. Still, a 50 win projection seems like a decent ballpark estimate for a team led by two very strong players in Baron Davis and Elton Brand, and this is where this kind of analysis can come in handy.

As for the Warriors, I won't try to project their roster for next year, as it seems certain that they will try to retool through free agency, perhaps adding a point guard, or perhaps trading away veteran talent to begin rebuilding. That said, according to adjusted plus-minus, Baron Davis added about 5.1 points to the team's scoring margin in 2008, meaning that without him, they could expect to fall from 48 to about 37 wins. The playoff window seems to have passed for Golden State, and they will have to think hard about their moves going forward.