All of these systems provide a different perspective - Weiland's system uses data from college players who didn't make it; Pelton's system compares projected rookie seasons and Lu's looks at how players will fit into the team whom they were drafted by. To add something new to the discussion, I decided to make career PER projections.
First off, I made some modifications to my similarity scores system. The categories are now weighted as follows:
5: Age
4: Height, Stls/PF, Blks/PF
3: Weight, Pure point rating, Rb/40, 3p/FGA
2: FTA/FGA, Pts/40
Honestly, adding weights didn't change the rankings very much, so even though the weights are more art than science, I'm comfortable that I'm not adding much bias to the results.
Having generated lists of comps for every draft pick, I then averaged the career NBA PER for their comp list, weighted by the strength of the comparison.
Without any further ado, here are the results:
| Player | Mean PER | Comps |
| Blake Griffin | 18.79 | 9 |
| DeJuan Blair | 17.51 | 6 |
| Jonny Flynn | 17.09 | 13 |
| James Harden | 16.69 | 10 |
| Nick Calathes | 16.07 | 9 |
| Tyreke Evans | 15.45 | 28 |
| Stephen Curry | 15.28 | 13 |
| Patrick Mills | 15.28 | 16 |
| Austin Daye | 14.67 | 12 |
| DeMar DeRozan | 14.54 | 18 |
| Jrue Holiday | 14.17 | 5 |
| Ty Lawson | 14.14 | 10 |
| Jeff Teague | 13.76 | 21 |
| Lester Hudson | 13.70 | 1 |
| Darren Collison | 13.69 | 28 |
| Tyler Hansbrough | 13.52 | 18 |
| James Johnson | 13.38 | 78 |
| Ahmad Nivins | 12.95 | 49 |
| Jordan Hill | 12.93 | 112 |
| Jon Brockman | 12.87 | 50 |
| B.J. Mullens | 12.85 | 2 |
| Danny Green | 12.80 | 58 |
| Derrick Brown | 12.76 | 65 |
| Chinemelu Elonu | 12.69 | 38 |
| Eric Maynor | 12.61 | 57 |
| DeMarre Carroll | 12.61 | 80 |
| Earl Clark | 12.60 | 56 |
| Chase Budinger | 12.60 | 103 |
| Terrence Williams | 12.56 | 33 |
| Gerald Henderson | 12.54 | 85 |
| Jeff Pendergraph | 12.50 | 100 |
| Hasheem Thabeet | 12.45 | 2 |
| Dante Cunningham | 12.40 | 95 |
| Marcus Thornton | 12.33 | 89 |
| Taj Gibson | 12.33 | 28 |
| Wayne Ellington | 12.28 | 103 |
| A.J. Price | 12.23 | 59 |
| Toney Douglas | 12.01 | 77 |
| Sam Young | 11.98 | 36 |
| Jodie Meeks | 11.97 | 77 |
| Robert Dozier | 11.83 | 31 |
| DaJuan Summers | 11.67 | 49 |
| Jack McClinton | 11.66 | 5 |
| Jermaine Taylor | 11.61 | 49 |
| Taylor Griffin | 11.47 | 55 |
| Robert Vaden | 11.40 | 15 |
| Goran Suton | 11.23 | 27 |
| Calvin Brock | 11.07 | 33 |
| Chester Frazier | 10.41 | 15 |
Interestingly, these results line up pretty well with my own subjective feelings about the draft. Blake Griffin, James Harden and Tyreke Evans are viewed here as strong top 5 picks while DeJuan Blair and Nick Calathes stand out as sleepers. Interestingly, the system is not as high on Ty Lawson as I am, as undersized points don't have a great history, and prefers Jonny Flynn and even Patrick Mills. I'm not sure Flynn or Mills are quite as good as their comps, but they both fit the mold of quality NBA guards. Also don't read anything into the low ranking of Hasheem Thabeet - with only 2 comparable players and neither being strong comps at that, he is too unique of a player for this system to really apply to him.
What I like about this system is that most later draft picks are seen as 'generic' players, meaning they have tons of valid comps and not great projected PERs. For the higher picks, this is not so much the case, suggesting they have much more of a future as stars. For high picks like Jordan Hill and Gerald Henderson who have a ton of comps, this may be a sign that they are destined to be role players. I also included Illini alums Chester Frazier and Calvin Brock, two players who were not drafted and are not expected to make a summer league roster, to test the system. Interestingly, they are the two lowest-ranked players here, which gives me more faith in the system. Now we will just have to sit back and see if the 2009-10 season confirms our predictions!
