Projecting the NBA Draft

After posting the results from my similarity scores system, I discovered that my system is by no means the only one out there. I was already aware of Ed Weiland's work over at Hoops Analyst but not aware of the recent postings by Kevin Pelton at Basketball Prospectus or the work of Richard Lu at Draft Outcast.

All of these systems provide a different perspective - Weiland's system uses data from college players who didn't make it; Pelton's system compares projected rookie seasons and Lu's looks at how players will fit into the team whom they were drafted by. To add something new to the discussion, I decided to make career PER projections.

First off, I made some modifications to my similarity scores system. The categories are now weighted as follows:

5: Age
4: Height, Stls/PF, Blks/PF
3: Weight, Pure point rating, Rb/40, 3p/FGA
2: FTA/FGA, Pts/40

Honestly, adding weights didn't change the rankings very much, so even though the weights are more art than science, I'm comfortable that I'm not adding much bias to the results.

Having generated lists of comps for every draft pick, I then averaged the career NBA PER for their comp list, weighted by the strength of the comparison.

Without any further ado, here are the results:

Player	Mean PER	Comps
Blake Griffin	18.79	9
DeJuan Blair	17.51	6
Jonny Flynn	17.09	13
James Harden	16.69	10
Nick Calathes	16.07	9
Tyreke Evans	15.45	28
Stephen Curry	15.28	13
Patrick Mills	15.28	16
Austin Daye	14.67	12
DeMar DeRozan	14.54	18
Jrue Holiday	14.17	5
Ty Lawson	14.14	10
Jeff Teague	13.76	21
Lester Hudson	13.70	1
Darren Collison	13.69	28
Tyler Hansbrough	13.52	18
James Johnson	13.38	78
Ahmad Nivins	12.95	49
Jordan Hill	12.93	112
Jon Brockman	12.87	50
B.J. Mullens	12.85	2
Danny Green	12.80	58
Derrick Brown	12.76	65
Chinemelu Elonu	12.69	38
Eric Maynor	12.61	57
DeMarre Carroll	12.61	80
Earl Clark	12.60	56
Chase Budinger	12.60	103
Terrence Williams	12.56	33
Gerald Henderson	12.54	85
Jeff Pendergraph	12.50	100
Hasheem Thabeet	12.45	2
Dante Cunningham	12.40	95
Marcus Thornton	12.33	89
Taj Gibson	12.33	28
Wayne Ellington	12.28	103
A.J. Price	12.23	59
Toney Douglas	12.01	77
Sam Young	11.98	36
Jodie Meeks	11.97	77
Robert Dozier	11.83	31
DaJuan Summers	11.67	49
Jack McClinton	11.66	5
Jermaine Taylor	11.61	49
Taylor Griffin	11.47	55
Robert Vaden	11.40	15
Goran Suton	11.23	27
Calvin Brock	11.07	33
Chester Frazier	10.41	15

Interestingly, these results line up pretty well with my own subjective feelings about the draft. Blake Griffin, James Harden and Tyreke Evans are viewed here as strong top 5 picks while DeJuan Blair and Nick Calathes stand out as sleepers. Interestingly, the system is not as high on Ty Lawson as I am, as undersized points don't have a great history, and prefers Jonny Flynn and even Patrick Mills. I'm not sure Flynn or Mills are quite as good as their comps, but they both fit the mold of quality NBA guards. Also don't read anything into the low ranking of Hasheem Thabeet - with only 2 comparable players and neither being strong comps at that, he is too unique of a player for this system to really apply to him.

What I like about this system is that most later draft picks are seen as 'generic' players, meaning they have tons of valid comps and not great projected PERs. For the higher picks, this is not so much the case, suggesting they have much more of a future as stars. For high picks like Jordan Hill and Gerald Henderson who have a ton of comps, this may be a sign that they are destined to be role players. I also included Illini alums Chester Frazier and Calvin Brock, two players who were not drafted and are not expected to make a summer league roster, to test the system. Interestingly, they are the two lowest-ranked players here, which gives me more faith in the system. Now we will just have to sit back and see if the 2009-10 season confirms our predictions!

NBA Draft Grades, Western Conference

And now the West!

Dallas Mavericks

Selected: G Rodrique Beaubois, G Nick Calathes, F Ahmad Nivins
Grade: A

Calathes:

Derrick Rose (868)
Javaris Crittenton (855)
Devin Harris (840)
Mike Bibby (836)
Derek Anderson (836)

Nick Calathes should provide a very interesting test in the cliched 'stats vs. scouts' debate. His comps may seem surprising but he was very similar to this group in terms of scoring, passing, rebounding, etc... He is taller than these players, and probably not as athletic, but otherwise, comes up as surprisingly similar. He's versatile, can shoot, and can pass. I think he's a huge steal at #45, so hopefully he won't get stashed away in Greece and never see the NBA.

Nivins:

Maceo Baston (893)
Jason Lawson (882)
Walter Sharpe (860)
Etan Thomas (856)
Don Reid (853)

Nivins' best hope is to play an Etan Thomas-type role off the bench.

Denver Nuggets
Selected: G Ty Lawson
Grade: A

Similar to:

Jameer Nelson (855)
Antonio Daniels (820)
Steve Francis (815)
Jarrett Jack (812)
Marcus Banks (812)

Another player who Hugh and I loved much more than his draft position would indicate. Yeah he's short, but he had a close to perfect season offensively (3.5 ast/to ratio and shot .532 from the field and .472 from 3, offensive rating of 134) and was the key reason that North Carolina won the championship. I'd like to see him get a chance to start right away, but I think he'll immediately be able to take Anthony Carter's spot as the backup for Billups in Denver's rotation. His comps speak well to his talents, although he is a fairly unique player.

Golden State Warriors
Selected: G Stephen Curry
Grade: A-

Similar to:

Alphonso Ford (855)
Jay Williams (849)
Rashad McCants (826)
Rodney Stuckey (824)
Tony Delk (821)

Curry's list of comparable players is good, not great. Ford played in an even smaller conference than Davidson, so I wouldn't fear that comparison too much. Everyone else is solid (or at least Williams likely would have been), but the career of McCants or Delk would be disappointing for Curry. He's not all that comparable to these players, so I think he can surpass them. I don't see Curry as a superstar but I think he will be a very good player, and will thrive in the Warriors' uptempo system.

Houston Rockets
Selected: G Jermaine Taylor, G Sergio Llull, F Chase Budinger
Grade: B+

Taylor:

Rashad McCants (895)
Courtney Lee (886)
Kareem Rush (874)
Keith Bogans (873)
Shawn Respert (872)

Based on this list, Taylor looks strictly like a scorer off the bench, but that's fine with a round 2 pick.

Budinger:

Michael Finley (914)
Jim Jackson (904)
Keith Bogans (895)
Quincy Lewis (893)
Jarvis Hayes (892)

Hard to know what to make of these comps. Some best-case scenarios (Finley, Jackson) and some worst-case (Bogans, Lewis, Hayes). I suspect he'll be more like the latter 3 than the first 2 but the Rockets won't mind using a second-round pick to find out.

Los Angeles Clippers
Selected: F Blake Griffin
Grade: A

Similar to:

Zach Randolph (893)
Elton Brand (870)
Kevin Love (868)
Carlos Boozer (846)
Marreese Speights (836)

As expected, a dynamic list of comps for Blake Griffin. Ironically, his future teammate tops his list. Zach Randolph is a headcase, but does put up great scoring and rebounding numbers. Griffin will provide at least his production with better shooting percentages, defense and leadership. A slam-dunk #1 pick for the Clippers. And no, I don't believe they're cursed, only severely mismanaged.

Los Angeles Lakers
Selected: F Chinemelu Elonu
Grade: B-

Similar to:

DeAndre Jordan (880)
Hilton Armstrong (861)
James Augustine (860)
Amal McCaskill (854)
Erick Dampier (847)

Elonu probably won't ever make the league, but no one expects much from the #59 pick anyways.

Memphis Grizzlies
Selected: C Hasheem Thabeet, F DeMarre Carroll, F Sam Young
Grade: D

Thabeet:

Etan Thomas (821)
Brendan Haywood (795)
Alvin Jones (789)
Dikembe Mutombo (773)
Jim McIlvaine (771)

Thabeet isn't really all that similar to anyone, besides Etan Thomas. I'm not sure whether this is a good thing or not. It could mean that he is a player who will be uniquely talented or uniquely unfit for the NBA. My personal take is that although he is a good shotblocker, he is not a Mutombo-level defender. And he would have to be to justify the #2 pick considering his lack of scoring ability. I think the Grizzlies will regret taking Thabeet over Rubio.

Carroll:

Doug Edwards (907)
Jeff Nordgaard (903)
Bryon Russell (895)
Craig Smith (891)
Ryan Gomes (881)

The late first round may still have been early for Carroll, if Craig Smith and Ryan Gomes are his upside. I like his chances of reaching that level, though.

Young:

Chris Mills (904)
Ed O'Bannon (894)
Chris King (892)
Eric Piatkowski (882)
Josh Howard (881)

I was never very excited about Sam Young, considering he's already 24, but the Josh Howard comparison does intrigue me. A senior season comparison:

Howard: 32.3 min, 19.5 pts, 8.3 rbs, 1.9 asts, 2.1 stl, 1.6 blks, .373 3P
Young: 31.8 min, 19.2 pts, 6.3 rbs, 1.1 asts, 1.0 stl, 0.8 blks, .372 3P

It's close, but Howard is the better rebounder, and significantly, accumulated a lot more steals and blocks, suggesting superior athleticism. He was also a year younger. I'm guessing Young winds up closer to Ed O'Bannon, but I wouldn't mind being wrong.

Minnesota Timberwolves
Selected: G Ricky Rubio, G Jonny Flynn, G Wayne Ellington, F Henk Norel
Grade: C

I hate to give them such a low grade after stealing Rubio at #5, but taking another pure point guard at #6 was baffling. I can only hope that David Kahn was bluffing when he said that Rubio and Flynn can play together in the backcourt. I'm not sure Stephen Curry can guard SGs either but he would be a better backcourt mate for Rubio than Flynn. At least they traded Ty Lawson and Nick Calathes!

My take on Rubio is that at the very least he will be a great passer and ball thief, as well as a solid rebounder. He does have serious scoring and shooting issues, but he is also still only 18, and shooting is the easiest thing for a player to fix. Point guards generally have the longest development curves and the fact that he was so successful as a professional at ages 17 and 18 makes him the #2 prospect in the draft in my mind.

Players similar to Flynn:

Mike Bibby (879)
Jameer Nelson (854)
Antonio Daniels (852)
Rajon Rondo (848)
Chris Paul (846)

I think point guards are tough to predict, but this group is nothing but promising for Flynn. He is young and can pass, so the Wolves can hope the jump shot comes later.

Ellington:

Voshon Lenard (905)
Charles Smith (900)
James Collins (891)
Khalid Reeves (880)
Delonte West (877)

It's safe to say that Ellington won't be more than a role player.

New Orleans Hornets
Selected: G Darren Collison, G Marcus Thornton
Grade: B

Collison:

Erick Barkley (896)
Jason Terry (894)
Chris Duhon (860)
Jameer Nelson (855)
Adonis Jordan (854)

Collison's comps are all over the place. I see him more as a solid backup, so Chris Duhon seems like a good bet.

Thornton:

Rashad McCants (902)
Courtney Lee (900)
Bob Sura (889)
Charles Smith (883)
Voshon Lenard (878)

Nothing spectacular, but all of these players had roles in the league. A solid second round pick.

Oklahoma City Thunder
Selected: G James Harden, C B.J. Mullens, G Robert Vaden
Grade: A-

Harden:

Mike Miller (876)
Baron Davis (843)
Bob Sura (819)
Derrick Rose (818)
Jared Dudley (816)

I like Harden and don't even mind that the Thunder took him over Rubio. He's a pretty unique player (witness Derrick Rose as his fourth-best comp) but I think he can be even better than Mike Miller. I see the Thunder making a leap towards 40 wins this year, with Harden playing an immediate role.

Mullens:

DeAndre Jordan (847)
Roy Hibbert (829)
Dan McClintock (825)
Brendan Haywood (824)
Joel Przybilla (816)

It seems apt that Mullens' top comp is DeAndre Jordan, another disappointing freshman center who slid 20+ spots from where he would have gone 15 years ago. Jordan did have a promising rookie year, and the only outright bust on this list is McClintock. I like Mullens emerging as a solid rotation center, a la Przybilla, down the line, but the Thunder will have to be patient.

Vaden:

Randy Foye (869)
Cuonzo Martin (861)
James Collins (859)
Brandon Rush (847)
Cuttino Mobley (835)

Vaden has promise as a backup SG as long as he doesn't have too many games like this one.

Phoenix Suns
Selected: F Earl Clark, F Taylor Griffin
Grade: D+

Clark:

Robert Horry (926)
Terence Morris (895)
Dominic McGuire (892)
LeRon Ellis (880)
Jerome Moiso (864)

This list lends credence to my theory that Clark is not a player failing to live up to great talent, but simply a player who's not really all that talented in the first place. If he can develop a better jump shot, he could have an Horry-type career. If not, he may well wash out of the NBA.

Griffin:

Chris Owens (862)
Bryon Russell (861)
A.J. Bramlett (859)
Dickey Simpkins (858)
Matt Barnes (854)

I realize it's only a second-round pick, but there's something humiliating about how the Suns keep drafting the less-talented brother. To be honest, I don't think there's any way Taylor Griffin would have been drafted if not for Blake. 9.6 points and 5.8 rebounds a game is not going to get it done on the NBA level.

Portland Trail Blazers
Selected: F Victor Claver, F Jeff Pendergraph, F Dante Cunningham, G Patrick Mills
Grade: C

For once, I felt like Kevin Pritchard was just making deals for the sake of making deals. He got four draft picks, but how many will be on the team next year? I would say two at most.

Pendergraph:

Malcolm Mackey (917)
Bison Dele (907)
Shawnelle Scott (901)
David Lee (900)
Anthony Avent (892)

The David Lee comparison is nice, but on the whole, Pendergraph's comps don't hint at any unseen promise. Shooting 66% from the field was nice though.

Cunningham:

LeRon Ellis (906)
Matt Barnes (901)
J.R. Henderson (894)
Sean Lampley (892)
Luc Richard Mbah a Moute (889)

Well, Cunningham and Villanova were a nice story this year, but I don't see him making much of an impact on the NBA.

Mills:

Jason Terry (878)
B.J. Tyler (864)
Tyronn Lue (861)
Mike Bibby (851)
A.J. Guyton (851)

I was surprised by how far Mills fell, but to tell the truth, his statistics never seemed to match his reputation. That said, two former Arizona stars (Terry and Bibby) turn up here, so he may yet have some potential.

Sacramento Kings
Selected: G Tyreke Evans, F Omri Casspi, F Jon Brockman
Grade: B

Evans:
Michael Redd (898)
Paul Pierce (884)
Tim Thomas (863)
Andre Emmett (861)
Ricky Davis (860)

You have to like the comparisons to Redd and Pierce, not so much the comparisons to Thomas and Davis. I'm not sure the Kings should have taken Evans over Rubio, but I still think Evans will be a pretty good player. His flaws are efficiency and shot selection, which are the flaws you want a flawed freshman prospect to have, because they're the most easily correctible. The comps to Tim Thomas and Ricky Davis are a reminder of what happens to a player that never corrects those flaws.

San Antonio Spurs
Selected: F DeJuan Blair, G Jack McClinton, G Nando de Colo
Grade: A

Blair:

Zach Randolph (867)
Sean May (838)
Paul Millsap (831)
Donnell Harvey (815)
Wayne Simien (809)

Well, Blair's comps do say more bench power forward than stud, like Blake Griffin. Then again, May and Millsap have been pretty productive on a per-minute basis, and the numbers here are very low, speaking to Blair's uniqueness. In short, his plummet to 37 was a travesty, ACLs or no ACLs, and the Spurs are looking a lot stronger than they did a week ago.

McClinton:

Dan Dickau (871)
Will Solomon (862)
Salim Stoudamire (848)
Lionel Chalmers (832)
Bryce Drew (827)

McClinton is a great shooter, but so was Salim Stoudamire, and that wasn't enough for him to stick in the league. McClinton will take the same route.

Utah Jazz
Selected: G Eric Maynor, F Goran Suton
Grade: C+

Maynor:

Terrence Rencher (867)
Luke Ridnour (864)
Elmer Bennett (863)
Jeff McInnis (860)
Chris Smith (853)

It's hard not to like Maynor if you saw him hit the game winning shot against Duke in the NCAA Tournament two years ago. But his numbers don't look as good when you remember that they were put up against small college competition. I'm a little more optimistic than these comps, but the overall picture is not a great one.

Suton:

Mark Pope (875)
A.J. Bramlett (855)
Shawnelle Scott (850)
Jamie Feick (845)
Andrew DeClercq (845)

Not a whole lot to endorse about Suton, much as I admired his performance in the NCAAs.

2009 Draft Grades, Eastern Conference

In a rare burst of timely and topical coverage for this blog, here are grades for last night's draft, starting with the Eastern Conference. Grades are given not only on who was selected, but also who they passed over, and how the player selected fits in with their team. And to add something unique to this blog, I will use my similarity scores system to help evaluate prospects.

The similarity scores, are as always, a work in progress, but I'm pleased with the results. I have a database of NBA players' career college numbers from the 1991 draft to last year (I started with 1991 to only include players who had the 3 point line throughout their college career). I then make standardized comparisons across age, height, weight and the major statistical categories, similar to the method once in use at basketball-reference.com. The numbers aren't particularly scientific, so should be interpreted relative to each other. Over 900 is a very strong comparison, under 850 is a weaker one.

Atlanta Hawks
Selected: #19 - G Jeff Teague, Wake Forest
Grade: B

Similar to:
Marcus Banks (854)
Tyronn Lue (851)
Keyon Dooling (846)
Luis Flores (843)
Chauncey Billups (839)

Teague's comparables look bad at first. He is most similar to a set of undersized combo guards who could never quite play the point in the league. Teague will likely have this same issue. On the bright side, his fifth-best comp is Chauncey Billups. Let's compare their sophomore seasons.

Billups: 32.7 min, 19.1 pts, 4.9 rebs, 4.8 asts, 2.9 to, .413 FG, .401 3P
Teague: 32.0 min, 18.8 pts, 3.3 rebs, 3.5 asts, 3.4 to, .485 FG, .441 3P

Teague was actually the superior scorer if you factor in shooting percentages. But Billups trumps him in every other regard and most significantly had a far superior assist-turnover ratio. It is likely that Teague will not be able to play point like Billups and thus will be relegated to a scoring role off the bench. Still, not a bad pickup at #19. His ability to shoot and drive ought to make him better than his other comps.

Boston Celtics
Selected: #58 - G Lester Hudson, Tennessee-Martin
Draft Grade: B

Similar to:
Tony Delk (829)
Todd Day (796)
Alphonso Ford (789)
James Collins (785)
Juan Dixon (781)


Not really much to say here. I did grab Hudson as a late first-round sleeper in our mock draft, but as a 6'1" 24 year old shooting guard from a small conference (OVC represent!), I imagine he doesn't have much of a future in the league. A fine pick at #58, for whatever it's worth.

Charlotte Bobcats
Selected: #12 - G Gerald Henderson, Duke;
#40 - F Derrick Brown, Xavier
Draft Grade: C+

Henderson - similar to:

Cedric Henderson (897)
Dave Johnson (895)
Willie Green (895)
Michael Finley (890)
Marcus Williams (888)

This isn't a very promising list of similar players for Henderson. Michael Finley would be the best bet, but he was much better in the pros than in college, so I wouldn't rely on that similarity. Henderson's 9th best comp is Doug Christie, and that seems like about his high point to me - a solid defensive guard who can provide enough offense to start. I see him more as a bench stopper so #12 may have been a reach.

Brown - similar to:

Mark Hendrickson (895)
James Augustine (875)
Bobby Jones (872)
Anthony Miller (860)
Matt Steigenga (860)

Just below this list is Richard Jefferson, but clearly Brown's similarity scores don't suggest he will be a second-round gem for Charlotte.

Chicago Bulls
Selected: #16 - F James Johnson
#26 - F Taj Gibson
Grade: C-

Perhaps this grade is too harsh, but I was mad when the Bulls selected James Johnson over Blair and infuriated when they selected Gibson. Oh well, let's look at the comps.

James Johnson:

Bison Dele (876)
Brian Cook (866)
Nick Collison (864)
Kirk Haston (863)
Marcus Haislip (860)

I'm optimistic he can be a Nick Collison type player but this isn't a very inspiring group. Johnson just isn't that exciting of a prospect to me.

Taj Gibson:

Stephane Lasme (881)
Eric Mobley (877)
Kenyon Martin (874)
Anthony Miller (866)
Mark Pope (859)

The Kenyon Martin comparison is intriguing, but Gibson never had a season like Martin's senior year where he averaged 18.9 pts, 9.7 rebs, and 3.5 blks on .568 shooting. Gibson's numbers from this year look comparable but he only averaged 14.3 pts and played 4 more minutes per game. They should have taken Blair.

Cleveland Cavaliers
Selected: #30 - G Christian Eyenga
#46 - F Danny Green
#57 - F Emir Preldzic
Grade: A-
I don't know much about Eyenga or Preldzic, but at the point in the draft where they were taken, they're low risks. What about Danny Green?

Similar to:

JR Giddens (897)
Wesley Person (896)
Tayshaun Prince (892)
Brandon Rush (887)
Rodney Carney (882)

I really think Green can be as valuable in the NBA as Gerald Henderson. Maybe Henderson has more offensive potential but Green could be a defensive stopper on the wing and can hit the 3. A better version of Bruce Bowen perhaps and a great pickup in round 2.

Detroit Pistons
Selected: #15 - F Austin Daye
#35 - F DaJuan Summers
#39 - F Jonas Jerebko
Grade: B+

Austin Daye:

Charlie Villanueva (856)
Jumaine Jones (843)
Robert Horry (842)
Lamar Odom (835)
Josh Childress (830)

I have mixed feelings about Daye. On the one hand, his statistical profile has a lot of good indicators. He's 6'10", gets a lot of blocks and steals and shot above 40% from 3. His most similar players also paint a promising picture. On the other hand, he played worse on a per-minute basis as a sophomore than as a freshman, is super skinny, and failed to take over games the way his talent suggests he could. A lot of draft analysts have discussed Earl Clark by saying that he would have a frustrating career a la Lamar Odom or Tim Thomas. I don't think Clark is in Odom's league, but Daye might well be (and Odom is his 4th best comp!). Not a bad risk at #15, overall.

DaJuan Summers:

Austin Croshere (886)
Chris Crawford (882)
Walt Williams (881)
Matt Barnes (879)
Chris Jefferies (877)

I was never high on Summers, but he looks surprisingly decent here, at least for a 2nd round pick.

Indiana Pacers
Selected: #13 - F Tyler Hansbrough
#52 - G A.J. Price
Grade: B

Tyler Hansbrough:

Lee Nailon (857)
Darius Songaila (857)
Leon Powe (851)
Carl Landry (850)
Adam Keefe (844)

Despite his reputation as a player who gives 100%, Hansbrough is not a great rebounder and an awful shotblocker. These are reminders that he probably does have some serious athletic limitations. That said, his comparable players look surprisingly solid. I don't see him as more than a strong bench player, but in this draft that's not a terrible thing to get at #13.

A.J. Price

Jerome Allen (922)
Mateen Cleaves (899)
Travis Best (892)
Luke Ridnour (892)
Erick Barkley (892)

Not all that promising, although a career like Best or Ridnour's would be great this late in the draft. I doubt the Pacers are expecting much from Price anyways.

Miami Heat
Selected: #42 - G Patrick Beverley
Grade: B+

Similar to:
Daniel Gibson (896)
Jordan Farmar (895)
Kenny Satterfield (880)
Mo Williams (863)
Raymond Felton (852)

Since Beverley spent a year playing in Ukraine, these similarity scores reflect his comparables had he been drafted a year ago. I'm skeptical that he's really this good considering he's 6'1", not a good passer, and dropped off from his freshman to his sophomore year at Arkansas. That said, he is great as a second round pick because of his potential to be a top combo guard off the bench.

Milwaukee Bucks
Selected: #10 - G Brandon Jennings
#41 - G Jodie Meeks
Grade: C+

Perhaps #10 is late enough to take a risk on Jennings, but he really struggled in the Euroleague, shooting under 40% and failing to make an impact as a passer. I'm always skeptical with wait and see picks, because good players are usually good right away. If any position is an exception, though, it's point guard, so I'm willing to give the Bucks some benefit of the doubt. Hugh vehemently disagrees with my willingness to give the Bucks any credit, citing how many actual PGs ("you know... ones who actually get assists") were still on the board.

As for Jodie Meeks:

JJ Redick (917)
Allan Houston (905)
Steve Nash (890)
OJ Mayo (890)
Terry Dehere (887)

Hey, this guy looks pretty good. Redick is the best comp in my mind (and in the system) - high scoring, good shooting, few contributions anywhere else. The Nash comp doesn't hold water but Nash wasn't as great a passer in college as in the pros, I suppose. I will say that there was probably little to distinguish Meeks from Redick besides hype. But considering that Redick is no more than a bench player for the Magic, it's hard to get too upset about Meeks falling to the second round.

New Jersey Nets
Selected: #11 - F Terrence Williams
Grade: B

Mardy Collins (872)
Scott Burrell (868)
Aaron McKie (853)
Andre Iguodala (830)
Jeryl Sasser (825)

His comps are a mixed bag, but the Nets would have to be heartened by the Andre Iguodala comparison. Let's take a closer look and add Jeryl Sasser, another mid-first-round pick who was an unequivocal bust.

Iguodala (as a sophomore): 32.1 min, 12.9 pts, 8.4 rebs, 4.9 asts, .450 FG, .315 3P, .788 FT
Williams: 34.2 min, 12.5 pts, 8.6 rebs, 5.0 asts, .431 FG, .385 3P, .581 FT
Sasser: 34.9 min, 17.0 pts, 8.3 rebs, 4.2 asts, .394 FG, .287 3P, .718 FT

Right away we can see that Williams is not as much of an offensive liability that Sasser was (although he was his first two seasons). This comparison even puts him on the same ground as Iguodala. The difference is that Iguodala was only a sophomore. The 2 year difference may be a big one. Even so, I like the versatility of Williams' game enough to think that this was a nice pick at #11, even if he's not as good as Iguodala.

New York Knicks
Selected: #8 - F Jordan Hill
#29 - G Toney Douglas
Grade: D

Hill:

Bison Dele (930)
Anthony Avent (922)
Malcolm Mackey (921)
Matt Fish (907)
Channing Frye (896)

Suffice it to say that I don't think much of Hill's prospects. His numbers are wholly unremarkable (witness the high similarity scores) and his similar players never did much in the NBA. The Knicks got hit hard by not landing Stephen Curry.

Douglas:

Vonteego Cummings (904)
Cuttino Mobley (902)
Miles Simon (884)
Randy Foye (883)
Luis Flores (879)

Douglas will hope to have a career like Mobley, who was also a later pick in the draft.

Philadelphia 76ers
Selected: #17 - G Jrue Holiday
Grade: A-

Similar to:

Russell Westbrook (829)
Stephon Marbury (821)
Delonte West (817)
Derrick Rose (815)
Will Avery (807)

At #17, Holiday has great value. I'm not sure how much to read into his similarity scores, considering that the numbers are relatively low and there aren't that many young guards who have been drafted in the first round. Still, it's hard not to see his comp list as a ringing endorsement, as long as we ignore Will Avery.

Toronto Raptors
Selected: #9 - F DeMar DeRozan
Grade: C

Similar to:

Matt Steigenga (875)
Richard Jefferson (869)
Julian Wright (860)
Jeff Nordgaard (849)
Matt Barnes (846)

Hopefully it's clear why I'm skeptical DeRozan will be any good. He doesn't have 3-point range, is a poor passer, and didn't even get a whole lot of steals and blocks, despite his great athleticism. On the plus side, he did come on late in the year as a scorer, so it's possible his numbers underrate him. His best hope is Richard Jefferson, who had a similarly underwhelming college career, but blossomed in the NBA as a 20 ppg scorer.

2009 NBA Mock Draft

Well, we have decided to bring this blog out of hibernation for our favorite annual tradition... the 2009 Hugh Williams and Jeremiah Methven Mock Draft! Our mock draft is not meant to show how we think things will go, only how we think they should go. In our cases, we are more than willing to reach for our favorite players and depart from conventional wisdom.

1. LAC - Blake Griffin



H: Unlike the last two years where there's been a furious debate about who the best player is this year's crop provided a very easy choice for the #1 team. Simply but, Clippers win, Griffin loses.

2. MEM - Ricky Rubio


J: Ultimately, I couldn't pass on Rubio here. There is a valid concern that his scoring may never be up to par, but he will provide an immediate impact in nearly every other category. He can play right away and best of all, a good point guard ages like a fine wine. Memphis might be well served by trading the pick, however, because I wouldn't count out Mike Conley just yet.

3. OKC - Tyreke Evans



H: I think the debate here was purely between Evans and Harden. Yes, Thabeet would've done a nice job fortifying their frontcourt but Evans and Harden are on a tier above Thabeet in my book, thus not warranting a selection based on position. Evans is a combo guard who can score in a variety of fashions, rebounds, assists, and can provide the Thunder with a potentially deadly set of guards and wings.

4. SAC - James Harden



J: A straightforward pick for the Kings as far as I'm concerned. I don't see guys like Thabeet or Flynn as the sure thing that Harden is. Versatility is critical for a shooting guard prospect and versatility happens to be Harden's calling card.

5. MIN - Ty Lawson



J: And Hugh reaches to grab Ty Lawson at #5. I love Lawson too - the history of sub 6'0" point guards is not in his favor, but none of his predecessors could boast of his absurd efficiency numbers on the collegiate level either. Worst case, he's a solid backup. Maybe a reach at #5, but in a draft this weak, maybe not.

H: I'll be straight, I am highly skeptical of the point guards being touted as going in the lottery. Lawson's the same size as Flynn but is superior in shooting, rebounding, assists, steals, and TOs. As for comparing Lawson to Holiday...the Tar Heel far exceeds the Bruin in all categories other than size, rebounding, and being two years older. Lawson has experience leading a premier team, has all the assets, just with none of the flash.

6. MIN - Stephen Curry



J: Curry and Lawson would probably get torched defensively, so this may not be the ideal backcourt for the Timberwolves. But lest I get torched for making this pick, I should stress that we were unaware of the Washington-Minnesota deal until about midway through our mock draft. Curry's college numbers are unbelievable and if he seemed at times to be mortal this year, it was only because he had to carry a huge load of Davidson's possessions.

7. GS - Nick Calathes



J: Hugh really reached here, but statistically, Calathes surpasses every point guard in the draft besides Lawson.

H: I can go through the exact same defense for Calathes as I would for Lawson. I think Curry is a better fit for Golden State's run and gun system, but Golden State needs a running buddy for Ellis and Calathes' short-comings athletically are mitigated by his size and his ability to score both by getting to the line and shooting from range.

8. NYK - Jonny Flynn



J: Assuming Flynn isn't having nightmares about his last visit to Madison Square Garden, this would be a nice pick for the Knicks. I'm not really sure what to make of Flynn. Point guards are notoriously tough to predict. I will say that he is cast from the same clay as point guards like Chris Paul and Mike Bibby. Whether he is as good remains to be seen.

9. TOR - Hasheem Thabeet


H: Thabeet falls far in our draft for several reasons. While no one doubts his defensive capabilities, but his offensive game entirely consists of getting the ball in the low post and acting as a finisher. He's also 22 and yes he's only been playing basketball for a limited time, but his overall athleticism improved minimally over three years and at times often looks stiff and uncoordinated on the floor. Still, if he falls this far Toronto will be ecstatic to play him alongside Chris Bosh.

J: He's no Dikembe Mutombo.

H: Well put.

10. MIL - DeJuan Blair


J: I realize that the real Bucks would take a point guard like Holiday or Jennings here. But this is my draft, and here, the Bucks take a player who will immediately produce and rebound. He and Scott Skiles would be BFFs, take my word for it.

H: I hate you.

11. NJ - Terrence Williams


H: As a Nets fan I'm drooling at the opportunity to play a lineup of Harris, Carter, SF, Blair, Lopez. It's the perfect lineup to lure the ultimate SF. Anyways, I digress. Terrence Williams is a very versatile player who rebounds, defends, and passes well. His scoring is something to be desired but hopefully Lopez' emergence will compensate. The Nets need good complimentary players for especially at the forward positions where they are incredibly weak.

J: And by ultimate SF Hugh of course means Adam Morrison, last seen leading the Lakers to the NBA title.

12. CHA - Austin Daye



J: I considered taking DeMar DeRozan but instead I went with Daye, another player who has yet to reach his potential, but unlike DeRozan, Daye statistical indicators of greatness. Daye racked up a ton of steals and blocks and shot 42% on 3s. Perhaps he will never get his head in the game but as long as you're drafting for upside, I would rather take a guy like Daye who at least has shown the ability to do greater things.

13. IND - Jordan Hill



H: I'm not a huge Hill fan, but he's fallen far enough and the Pacers are need of some depth at their front line. I'm skeptical that Hill can cut it as a starter (he really lacks any prominent skills), but there's no reason to believe he can't make an impact off the bench.

J: Jordan Hill plummets in our draft, and rightfully so. I am convinced that he will be nothing more than a journeyman power forward. There are no particular indicators of his athleticism in his statistics, always a bad sign.

14. PHO - Earl Clark



J: I waffled on this pick for the Suns and wound up selecting Clark. In retrospect, I probably should have taken DeRozan here, who blew up in March. Clark has a lot of skills but is more Tim Thomas than Lamar Odom (Odom was a much better college player).

15. DET - Gerald Henderson


H: Henderson's smart, defensive style of play fit perfectly into Detroit's system. However his offensive game only began to emerge his junior year and I'm not fully sold on his actual peak. Regardless, I think Detroit could easily grab themselves a solid lock down defender who isn't a liability on offense.

J: Solid pick for Detroit, although I don't think Henderson has the offensive game to be more than a defensive stopper off the bench.

16. CHI - DeMar DeRozan


J: As a part-time Bulls fan, I hate to bring a workout wonder like DeRozan to Chicago. But at #16 he would be a great value. The risk of him being a bust is more than compensated by his upside if he were to fall this low. Furthermore, he did emerge as a scorer towards the end of the season, although he still showcased a decided lack of an all-around game.

17. PHI - Jrue Holiday


J: The bleeding stops for Holiday. Apart from his lack of scoring, he's not a bad prospect. Yet I don't think there's any way he would have gone in the lottery last year and our mock draft reflects that.

H: I'm really not sold on Holiday, but I ragged on Westbrook last year and he emerged to have a fairly impressive first year. However, Westbrook was a better scorer, particularly when it came to getting to the line, a skill that allowed Westbrook to shoot below 40% but still score at a reasonable pace. Holiday is considered a top-notch defender, but as a PG running the offense is a far more important task.

18. MIN - Danny Green


J: I reached a bit for Danny Green, but I really like him. He's a low upside pick but ought to be a better version of Bruce Bowen.

H: I concur with this pick. After loading up with offensive prospects like Lawson and Curry, Green would be a nice defensive compliment at a position where the Timberwolves are a little thin,

19. ATL - Darren Collison


J: Hugh blatantly ignores the elephant in the room (Brandon Jennings) and selects a backup point guard. This is low enough in the draft that I would have rolled the dice.

H: Maybe I need to see Jennings on the court, but even those that have given him mixed reviews. I'll save my mini-rant for later, but Collison will probably not be an all-star PG but he has supplementary assists such as his ability to shoot from range and his strong defensive skills given his size. He's probably not enough to push the Hawks over the edge he should give them some flexibility with the supposed departure of Mike Bibby.

20. UTA - Tyler Hansbrough


J: Hansbrough is a poor defender and rebounder so if his scoring doesn't translate, he won't last long in the NBA. Still, I like the fit here and he isn't a bad gamble at this point in the draft.

H: Utah's unlikely to be able to retain Boozer and Millsap so hopefully Hansborough can alleviate some of the pain felt from their loss.

21. NO - Wayne Ellington


H: I very uninspired pick because I feel that's how the Hornets always address the draft. They're always on the cusp of being able to get that SG but never put the extra effort to move up some spots or make a deal.

22. DAL - Brandon Jennings


J: The Mavericks gleefully select Brandon Jennings, suddenly a low-risk and high-upside selection at #22. There's a reason he fell so far in our mock draft and it's because he was simply awful in the Euroleague. Yes, the transition to European basketball was undoubtedly a tough one. But he also shot below 40% from the field and below 30% from the 3 point line. I think he deserves to go higher than #22 but there is a reason he is sliding in other mock drafts besides ours.

H: Frankly his statistical profile is dreadful. Nothing in it warrants a selection in the first round and personality questions have begun to arise too. I feel as though his stock his entirely based on supposed potential based on athleticism. I agree it's low risk at this stage in the draft but I see Jennings' chances of making an impact of any sort as very very slim.


23. SAC - Eric Maynor


H: His profile is eerily similar to Collison's in that his upside is somewhat limited and is undersized for the position but has other skills. He shoots well from range and penetrates with a good deal of success (though he was playing for VCU). Regardless the Kings would love to find someone to take some minutes away from Udrih.

24. POR - Jeff Teague


J: This pick would force Jerryd Bayless to get his act together or lose his spot in the rotation. Teague is another talented combo guard who can provide a scoring burst off the bench.

25. OKC - B.J. Mullens


H: He's definition of a project. But hey, it's the 25th pick, the Thunder aren't competing anytime in the next two years, why not take a little gamble and hope it pays off?

26. CHI - James Johnson


J: James Johnson is another player who slipped a bit in our mock draft. I actually don't dislike him, there's just nothing in his profile that gets me excited either. He would be an excellent selection for the Bulls at #26 seeing as how they are considering taking him at #16 in real life.

27. MEM - Omri Casspi



H: Perhaps a poor man's Rudy Fernandez, except for the 3/4 position. He's an aggressive off-the-ball offensive contributor who is a good shooter and improved his range greatly this past year.

28. MIN - Lester Hudson


J: With this pick, I was trying to replicate the foresight of Hugh last year, when he selected George Hill near the end of our mock draft. Indeed, Hill was a surprise first round pick and provided a valuable bench role for the Spurs this year. Hudson is a similarly talented small-college guard. That said, Hugh put a damper on my pick by revealing that Hudson was actually more like 6'0" or 6'1" than 6'3". This makes a difference, because one of his primary skills - rebounding - will be more difficult to translate to the NBA. I still like him though.

29. LAL - Sergio Llull


H: Sadly this pick no longer belongs to the Lakers, which makes the comedy a little less profound. Regardless, Llull is an interesting PG who doesn't score a ton but is quite efficient from the line and behind the arc. He doesn't rack up a ton of assists but committed very few turnover this year in either the EURO or ACB leagues.

30. CLE - John Bryant


J: With the final pick of the 2009 Draft, the Cavs pick up a poor man's Shaquille O'Neal. I don't know if Bryant is actually good enough to stick in the NBA but he was surprisingly dominant at Santa Clara throughout his college career.

NFL Divisional Round Preview

It's been awhile since I've posted on this blog but I want to give a preview of this weekend's NFL playoff games, with regards to the four quarterback matchups.
For this preview, I am using a statistic called Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AYPA), which is simply (Pass Yards + Pass TD*10 - Interceptions *45)/Attempts).

This doesn't factor in rushing or sacks, nor does it factor in strength of teammates, but it is a nice summary statistic that is less arbitrary than the NFL's quarterback rating. I also will look beyond regular season numbers and see which quarterbacks have historically raised or lowered their games in the playoffs.

Here is a rough guideline of how to interpret the AYPA numbers:

5 - mediocre
6 - average
6.5 - above-average
7 - Pro Bowl
7.5 - MVP

The matchups:

Baltimore at Tennessee

Joe Flacco - 2008: 6.0 AYPA (rookie)
Kerry Collins - 2008: 6.0 AYPA; Career: 5.5 AYPA; Postseason: 4.75 AYPA

This matchup is difficult to assess since Flacco is a rookie. Collins has had the worst career of any of the quarterbacks still alive in the postseason, but he still may have the advantage in this matchup due to Flacco's inexperience. It is worth noting that despite Collins' mediocre career numbers, he gets worse in the playoffs. Still, I think the Titans will prevail here.

San Diego at Pittsburgh

Ben Roethlisberger - 2008: 6.0 AYPA; Career: 6.76 AYPA; Postseason: 6.20 AYPA
Philip Rivers - 2008: 8.1 AYPA; Career: 6.90 AYPA, Postseason: 6.39 AYPA

Looking at career regular season and playoff numbers, Rivers looks slightly better overall. Both have declined in the playoffs, but both are still strong playoff performers, and some decline is to be expected due to the higher quality of defenses. Based on 2008 numbers, however, Rivers crushes Roethlisberger. Rivers led the NFL in AYPA by a wide margin, and he makes the Chargers an extremely dangerous team despite their 8-8 regular season record. I picked the Steelers to win the Super Bowl in part because of Roethlisberger's past successes. Looking at these numbers, though, I am worried that this may be a mismatch in favor of Rivers. Still, I lean towards the Steelers since they have a superior defense and home field advantage, but it may be a closer game than expected.

Arizona at Carolina

Kurt Warner - 2008: 7.1 AYPA; Career: 7.11 AYPA; Postseason: 7.22 AYPA
Jake Delhomme - 2008: 7.0 AYPA; Career: 6.41 AYPA; Postseason: 7.95 AYPA

Surprisingly, this game pits the two quarterbacks with the gaudiest playoff statistics. Although I've always thought of Warner as a system quarterback, he matched his career numbers this season, and he has actually performed quite well in the playoffs, leading the Rams to the Super Bowl twice and winning once. Delhomme, for his part, transforms into a superstar in the playoffs. Apart from a 3-interception performance against Seattle in 2006, he has been scintillating in the postseason, including 323 yards and 3 TDs against the Patriots in the Super Bowl. It's only a 7 game sample size, so perhaps Delhomme is not really as good as his numbers. But given that he had a strong regular season this year, he may well prove to be the quarterback that can lead the Panthers to a Super Bowl victory.

Philadelphia at NY Giants

Donovan McNabb - 2008: 6.4 AYPA; Career: 6.32 AYPA; Postseason: 5.60 AYPA
Eli Manning - 2008: 6.3 AYPA; Career: 5.37 AYPA; Postseason: 6.01 AYPA

This is a matchup that shows why it is important to look at playoff numbers and not just regular season numbers. McNabb has been a strong regular season performer throughout his career and his 6.32 figure is very good given the number of seasons he has played. Manning's career figures are artificially lowered due to his awful rookie season, but even his best season is an average season for McNabb. In the playoffs, however, McNabb gets worse while Manning gets better. Although Manning is not and will never be a superstar, he proved last year that he is an elite game manager who can raise his game in the playoffs. Thus, I look for Manning's cool head to win this one for the Giants, although we will see if he can match Delhomme in the NFC Championship Game.

The NBA's Top 10 Small Forwards

As in the previous posts, three-year averages of adjusted plus-minus ratings follow:

1. LeBron James, +13.70
2. Ron Artest, +7.79
3. Andrei Kirilenko, +6.36
4. Paul Pierce, +6.17
5. Luol Deng, +5.88
6. Chuck Hayes, +5.75
7. Corey Maggette, +4.72
8. Peja Stojakovic, +4.66
9. Shane Battier, +4.06
10. Gerald Wallace, +3.45

Other Notables: Hedo Turkoglu (+2.78), Josh Howard (+2.49), Rashard Lewis (+1.08), Tayshaun Prince (+0.88), Caron Butler (-0.38), Bruce Bowen (-0.64), Carmelo Anthony (-1.50), Richard Jefferson (-2.18)

LeBron is #1 with a bullet, and in fact, ranks #1 among all NBA players over the last 3 seasons, and yes, he ranks ahead of Kobe. LeBron is the main reason I have cringed every time I have heard a commentator proclaim Kobe to be the best basketball player on Earth. I suspect that this sentiment has something to do with Kobe's veteran status as well as the fact that Kobe, at this point in his career, is probably more skilled on the whole. However, the reason I think that LeBron is possibly superior and at least an equal (and why Kobe falls short compared to Jordan as well) is sheer physical skill. LeBron is an absolutely dominant inside player - something that Kobe cannot match. Kobe is a great athlete, but LeBron is a freakish athlete. Even with his questionable jumper, LeBron scores at the same rate and efficiency as Kobe due to his unquestioned ability to get to the basket.

OK - enough LeBron worshipping. From this ranking, Houston is in a great position adding Artest to their already loaded roster. They are jammed at forward and Artest is another player who can't stay healthy, but at the very least they now have 63-win kind of upside (although there are a lot of ifs to make that happen). Kirilenko ranks so high primarily due to an insane 2006 rating - in truth, he was probably one of the top 10 players in the league between 2002 and 2006, but he is past his prime today, although still a valuable asset. I do enjoy that touted role players like Chuck Hayes and Shane Battier make the top 10 - Hayes is probably overrated by this metric, but Battier's defensive contributions are strong enough that I don't think #9 is an absurd placement.

As a Bulls fan it does my heart good to see Luol Deng come in at #5 - even with an off year last year, he was still much more valuable to the team than Hinrich or Gordon. In my opinion, the Bulls should rebuild around Rose, Deng, Joakim Noah, and Tyrus Thomas - with everyone else being expendable. Ben Gordon is a nice piece to have on offense but his defensive liabilities make the kind of contract he's asking for an unwise investment.

To address the lower ranking star players - it is clear to me at this point that Carmelo Anthony and Richard Jefferson, to a lesser extent, are not contributing to wins in a manner suggested by their statistics. Both, it seems, have serious defensive issues and have consistently low ratings over a 3-year period, suggesting that these results are no fluke. The Nets were not unwise to get rid of Jefferson whereas the Nuggets should seriously consider trading Carmelo or reducing his minutes to inspire him to play better defense. As for some others, Bruce Bowen's reputation dates from a few years ago - he is old now and not as valuable as he once was. Tayshaun Prince is hurt by a questionably low 2006 rating - he probably is better than this analysis indicates. Caron Butler never really came into his own until this season - in the past, he has been another weak defensive player. Stay tuned for my ranking of power forwards!

The NBA's Top 10 Shooting Guards

More 3-year adjusted plus minus rankings here, this time for shooting guards. I should note that the best way to do this would be a regression over 3 years of data rather than averaging years. I'm just waiting for the good people at Basketball Value to provide more along these lines.

1. Kobe Bryant, +11.55
2. Manu Ginobili, +9.46
3. Dwyane Wade, +7.74
4. Vince Carter, +6.34
5. Andre Iguodala, +6.16
6. Jason Richardson, +4.79
7. Michael Redd, +4.18
8. Ray Allen, +3.79
9. Tracy McGrady, +3.73
10. Kirk Snyder, +3.59

Other notables: Joe Johnson (+2.59), Jamal Crawford (+2.22), Brandon Roy (-1.01 - only 2 years though), Ben Gordon (-2.27), Kevin Martin (-2.68), Jerry Stackhouse (-3.64), Richard Hamilton (-7.41)

On the whole, I think there are fewer surprises here than on the PG list. Based on adjusted plus-minus, Kobe lives up to the hype, although as we will see with the later positional rankings, it is hardly as obvious that he is the best player on the planet as the media likes to pretend. Noticeably, Manu Ginobili ranks as a truly great player by this metric, which I think he deserves. It does surprise me that Andre Iguodala ranks in the top 5 - I suspect he has some extra value due to his defense whereas players like Michael Redd and Ray Allen give up a lot on defense. Tracy McGrady ranks a surprising 9th, well behind his former Toronto teammate Vince Carter, but his rating has decreased every year between 2006 and 2008, suggesting that his injuries are taking a toll on his production. As for Kirk Snyder ranking 10th, I suspect that it is a fluke since he simply hasn't played much in 3 years but it seems like he is definitely worth signing to a cheap contract to prove whether or not his high ranking is real.

There aren't a whole lot of star SGs who rank poorly in this metric and the ones who do seem fairly logical. Brandon Roy is probably just a victim of his youth - young players usually don't make the kind of contributions picked up by plus-minus. Ben Gordon and Kevin Martin are talented offensive players who get toasted on defense. I'm not sure why Stackhouse ranks so low, but Rip Hamilton's rating is artificially deflated due to a 2006 season where the Pistons' starting five played a huge load of minutes together, as explained by David Lewin here. Even so, Hamilton rated as a negative player in both 2007 and 2008, a quite surprising result suggesting that the Pistons' success is due to the other members of its starting five.

The NBA's Top 10 Point Guards

Presented below are three-year averages of adjusted plus-minus for the NBA's point guards. I rank the top 10 then mention some other notable names that didn't make the Top 10.

1. Steve Nash, +8.52
2. Baron Davis, +7.32
3. Jason Kidd, +7.25
4. Allen Iverson, +5.51
5. Chris Paul, +4.89
6. Jason Terry, +4.64
7. Nate Robinson, +4.00
8. Chauncey Billups, +3.85
9. Devin Harris, +3.17
10. Tony Allen, +2.51

Other Notables: Rajon Rondo, +4.00 (not included due to only 2 years in the league), Tony Parker, +1.86, Monta Ellis, +1.83, Andre Miller, +0.58, Deron Williams, -0.67, Mo Williams, -1.36, Kirk Hinrich, -2.11, TJ Ford, -2.53, Jose Calderon, -3.49, Mike Bibby, -3.58

I believe that this list shows both the advantages and pitfalls of adjusted plus-minus. There can be no doubt that Nash, Davis and Kidd have been a cut above the rest of the NBA's point guards, posting consistently high numbers over the last 3 seasons. Yet the relatively low rating of players like Chris Paul, Tony Parker, and Deron Williams might arouse skepticism. Personally, I suspect that Paul's rating should be somewhat higher, but looking at the breakdowns into offense and defense handily provided at countthebasket, it is my guess that although Paul and Nash are probably the two best offensive point guards in the game, Paul's defense is even more of a liability than Nash's and thus keeps him from joining the top 3 (for now, at least).

As for some other ratings of note, adjusted plus-minus pinpoints the Spurs' success as being primarily dependent on Duncan and Ginobili - Parker has been a winning player, but not a great one. Deron Williams' three-year average is low because of a poor rookie season; nonetheless, his rating of +2.0 over the last 2 years is still outside of the top 10 - we will have to see if this trend continues as he matures. Pretty much every other star PG who rates as a losing player (Williams, Ford, Calderon, Bibby) are there due to their defensive liabilities. From this analysis, the offensive advantages enjoyed by the Raptors from employing both Ford and Calderon were more than offset by the two getting lit up on defense.

What have we learned from this set of ratings? Point guard is the top offensive position but also the weakest defensive position in the NBA. Thanks to countthebasket.com, we can see the splits for each player (for 2008, at least). Some point guards really get killed on defense and this makes them much less valuable than their box score statistics would indicate. In the case of Steve Nash, his defense doesn't sink his rating like it does Chris Paul's but it does lower it enough that he probably wasn't the MVP in 2005 or 2006 although he was arguably the top offensive player in the league. The greatest value of adjusted plus-minus is what it tells us about individual defense, and when it shows consistent ratings over a multi-year period. Its downside of course, it its high standard errors but I believe that presenting 3-year ratings like this offsets a lot of that bias.

Baron Davis and the Clippers

With the NBA off-season now in full swing, I thought it a good time to apply a relatively new tool to the purpose of evaluating off-season transactions. That tool is adjusted plus-minus! For those not in the know, I recommend starting here and here for the most recent adjusted plus-minus data and to explain a little about what it is. For those who don't want to click, I will give a brief summary.

The plus-minus statistic by itself measures a very simple, yet enlightening phenomenon. If the Cavs outscore the Celtics by 8 points when LeBron James is on the court but are outscored by 16 points when he is off the court, LeBron gets a plus-minus of +24, reflecting the team's vastly superior performance when he is on the court. The problem is that if LeBron's teammates are poor, his plus-minus will be higher than if he played on a stronger team. Another problem is that a player who is on the court at the same time as LeBron might take undue credit for what were LeBron's positive contributions. What adjusted plus-minus does is to incorporate a multiple regression analysis that accounts for the quality of a player's teammates in computing plus-minus. Although subject to some high standard errors, using two or more seasons' worth of data gives a fairly accurate estimate of the values of each player in the NBA.

What a tool like adjusted plus-minus can allow us to do most readily is to see exactly how a move like the Clippers' signing of Baron Davis can impact the team's win-loss total. Below is a projected lineup for next year's Clippers team. This is obviously simplified, using just nine players, but should work to give us a rough estimate. Career minutes per game were used for each player when possible to project playing time, although they had to be adjusted in some cases to reflect the distribution of talent on the team. For adjusted plus-minus, I included each player's adjusted plus-minus from the previous 3 seasons, but weighted it towards the most recent season.


Baron Davis 35.5 mpg, +7.02
Cuttino Mobley 37.0 mpg, -1.42
Al Thornton 27.3 mpg, -4.43
Elton Brand 38.3 mpg, +5.91
Chris Kaman 29.1 mpg, -2.00

Tim Thomas 21.7 mpg, -0.33
Brevin Knight 16.3 mpg, +1.18
Quinton Ross 16.1 mpg, -2.33
Eric Gordon 18.7 mpg, -2.85

Adding up each player's scores and weighting for minutes played, the Clippers' 08-09 scoring margin (per 100 possessions) projects to be 3.45, which would make them about a 50 win team. Obviously, this would be a big year for the Clippers, although it would not make them a championship contender. Still, I estimate that the addition of Davis and the return of a healthy Brand should add about 9.9 points to the team's scoring margin, turning them from one of the weaker teams in the league into a legitimate playoff team.

There is of course uncertainty in this estimate. Baron Davis may not post the same high rating for a new team. Elton Brand may not be as good as he was before his injury. The estimates for Al Thornton and Eric Gordon are pretty much a shot in the dark. I gave Gordon the average rookie rating for the 2007 draft class of -2.85. Thornton's rating as a rookie was -5.57 but I adjusted it slightly upwards to account for second-year improvement. Still, without extensive study, it is hard to know how to expect Thornton's rating to change in year two. If he were to become even a league-average player, it could propel the Clippers to 55 wins or more. And of course, the Clippers' roster may change. For one, I am assuming here that they don't resign Corey Maggette. Still, a 50 win projection seems like a decent ballpark estimate for a team led by two very strong players in Baron Davis and Elton Brand, and this is where this kind of analysis can come in handy.

As for the Warriors, I won't try to project their roster for next year, as it seems certain that they will try to retool through free agency, perhaps adding a point guard, or perhaps trading away veteran talent to begin rebuilding. That said, according to adjusted plus-minus, Baron Davis added about 5.1 points to the team's scoring margin in 2008, meaning that without him, they could expect to fall from 48 to about 37 wins. The playoff window seems to have passed for Golden State, and they will have to think hard about their moves going forward.

Draft Grades 2008

In the spirit of NBA Draft coverage everywhere, I am pleased to unveil our first-ever set of draft grades for the 2008 NBA Draft. Some might say that it is pointless to dole out marks when there is a great deal of uncertainty as to how good each prospect will be. To that, I respond that our business here is projection, and I at least (although not wanting to speak for Hugh) have a big enough ego to think that I am right. Furthermore, we can already evaluate to some extent how well each team drafted for their present and future needs.

Atlanta Hawks:
Grade: N/A
Picks: none

Boston Celtics:
Grade: B
Picks: J.R. Giddens, Bill Walker, Semih Erden

No home runs for the Celtics with the last pick in Round 1, but they picked up some nice athletic talent in Giddens and Walker. I'm not high on Giddens with a first-round pick, but the Celtics made up for it by grabbing Walker in the second-round, who has the potential to be very good if he can stay healthy. Walker is a mid to late first-round pick on talent, and thus is a steal at 47.

Charlotte Bobcats:
Grade: D
Picks: D.J. Augustin, Alexis Ajinca, Kyle Weaver

Yeah a harsh grade but I'm not a fan of the way they spent their picks. After all, when Hugh originally selected Augustin for the Bobcats in our mock draft, it was because he forgot that they already have a 23 year old talented point guard. Apparently, so did Michael Jordan. Will Augustin be better than Felton? Certainly not right away, and Felton is still young enough to get better himself (although it should be noted he has not really improved since his rookie year). Looking at their college numbers, Augustin scored more, but Felton was the better passer, the better rebounder, and also got more steals. The Bobcats have to worry that they just drafted a backup PG with the #9 pick, considering that they don't really need a replacement point. The Ajinca pick is a flyer, but it should be noted that he failed to dominate an inferior European league, so I am not optimistic about his future.

Chicago Bulls:
Grade: A-
Picks: Derrick Rose, Omer Asik

I'd give an A, but I continue to hold onto the idea that Beasley is the superior prospect to Rose. I like Rose very much, but we've heard ad nauseam about his superior athleticism without questioning what skills that will translate into. Indications are that he is a good but not great passer meaning he will top off at about 8 assists per game. To be a true franchise superstar, he will have to develop a jump shot and turn into a 25+ points per game scorer. It is not out of the question, but not a lock either as his scoring abilities are still somewhat unproven. I have said it before, but he seems most likely to develop into a 20 ppg, 8 apg player which would make him an All-Star but not a superstar.
As for the Asik pick, I love it. According to John Hollinger, Asik projects to average 12.2 points and 13.5 rebounds per 40, with a PER of 15.23. Although he won't come over for a few years, he ought to be a useful role player when he does.

Cleveland Cavaliers:
Grade: B
Picks: J.J. Hickson, Darnell Jackson, Sasha Kaun

Overall, a solid draft for the Cavs. J.J. Hickson is a player with upside at #19, and it's never a bad idea to mine the roster of a dominant NCAA team like Kansas. In particular, Darnell Jackson is a potential 2nd-round steal with a very nice Hollinger projection.

Dallas Mavericks:
Grade: C
Picks: Shan Foster

I'm not a big fan of Foster, but honestly, with only the #51 pick in the draft, you can't expect to get much. Historically, only players drafted in the first half of the second round have made an impact, apart from a few foreign unknowns like Manu Ginobili.

Denver Nuggets:
Grade: D
Picks: Sonny Weems

Perhaps a D is harsh when they only made one pick, yet there's nothing in Weems' college numbers to indicate that he'll be useful, and in my opinion, a much more intriguing shooting guard in Chris Douglas-Roberts was still on the board.

Detroit Pistons:
Grade: B-
Picks: Walter Sharpe, Trent Plaisted, Deron Washington

I can't fault the Pistons too much for rolling the dice with Sharpe, considering it was a 2nd-round pick, but in a fairly deep draft, there were still some players left on the board who I think will ultimately make more of an impact. Plaisted seems like a stiff big man, and Washington will probably never make the team.

Golden State Warriors:
Grade: A-
Picks: Anthony Randolph, Richard Hendrix

If I had to guess, I'd say that Randolph won't live up to his potential, but despite his inefficiency, it was still impressive that he played a prominent role in scoring and rebounding as a freshman. At #14, the Warriors were rightfully willing to take the risk. They get an A- from me for managing to get Hendrix late in the second round - honestly, he could be as good as Marreese Speights or Darrell Arthur, either of whom the Warriors could have taken instead of Randolph, and is thus a tremendous value pick at #49.

Houston Rockets:
Grade: A-
Picks: Donte Greene, Joey Dorsey, Maarty Leunen

I definitely like the picks they got late. Greene, as a young, jump-shooting forward, has the potential to be quite good, and carries almost no risk with a late first-round pick. Dorsey's contributions in the NBA will be limited due to his lack of offense, but I am high on him as a second-rounder, in part because of GM Daryl Morey's quite convincing rationale. Leunen is a solid late second-round prospect who was incredibly efficient at Oregon. All in all, the Rockets did a nice job of bolstering their already impressive depth.

Indiana Pacers:
Grade: C+
Picks: Brandon Rush, Roy Hibbert

Unlike Chad Ford, I am not a big fan of the Pacers' draft-day moves. The TJ Ford trade is a very good one, yet they then proceeded to trade away a potential All-Star in Jerryd Bayless for two role players (Rush and Jarrett Jack). Yes, a Ford-Bayless backcourt might have been too small on defense, but the Pacers will nonetheless regret this trade if Bayless develops into a 20 ppg scorer in 3-4 years, which he is certainly capable of doing. Rush is a more valuable piece on a better team, where he could spread the floor coming off the bench. Hibbert is a developed player, and has a nice Hollinger projection, but his lack of speed and conditioning will likely consign him to a career off the bench.

Los Angeles Clippers:
Grade: C+
Picks: Eric Gordon, DeAndre Jordan, Mike Taylor

Honestly, it'd be a lower grade if they hadn't stolen DeAndre Jordan in Round 2. Eric Gordon is so one-dimensional that I wonder if he'll be much more than a spot-up shooter at the NBA level. Not to focus too much on Jerryd Bayless, but he seems to me the more intriguing talent, and although not a true point, could certainly play the position. If the Clippers put Gordon at point (and they currently have no one else), their offense will truly struggle.
It is quite amazing that NBA teams have wised up on talented, yet raw center prospects. It is becoming more and more of a guard's league and it is worth reminding that many of the glut of centers who fell into the late first and early second rounds would have been lottery picks five years ago. Nonetheless, it seems to me that teams got too scared of Jordan, who is still very young and showed some talent as a freshman. I had compared him to Sam Dalembert in our mock draft and the comparison holds even better now since Dalembert fell to the end of the first round yet wound up being a useful player.
As for Mike Taylor, he makes a nice story, but he was hardly dominant in the NBDL (PER of 16.3) and his college numbers the year before were pretty awful.

Los Angeles Lakers:
Grade: C
Picks: Joe Crawford

This draft was a non-factor for the Lakers, similar to the Mavericks.

Memphis Grizzlies:
Grade: B-
Picks: O.J. Mayo, Darrell Arthur

Time will tell, but although I think the Grizzlies wound up with two good players in Mayo and Arthur, I'm not sure that it was worth giving up Kevin Love to get Mayo. Mayo might have more upside, but I think Love will at the least be better right away (and quite possibly better in the long-term). Moreover, they gave up Mike Miller, who already may be as good an offensive player as Mayo will be. The Grizzlies get some points for stealing Arthur late in the first, but the Mayo-Love trade looks questionable at the moment.

Miami Heat:
Grade: A
Picks: Michael Beasley, Mario Chalmers

The Heat not only picked up the most talented player in the draft in Beasley, but landed a mid-first round talent in Chalmers in the second. It's hard to imagine that a team that was as athletically dominant in the NCAA as Kansas won't produce any good pros, and I would say that Chalmers and Arthur are the best bets in this regard.

Milwaukee Bucks:
Grade: C
Picks: Joe Alexander, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute

I like Alexander, but the Bucks have run into the same problem as the Bobcats. They just picked up a player who is going to be their backup SF. I like this a little better for the Bucks, since first, I think Alexander is more promising than Augustin, and although Jefferson is better than Felton, he is also a lot older, so perhaps as Jefferson starts to decline, Alexander will be hitting his prime, ready to claim the starting spot. Mbah a Moute will have to be a damn good defender, because he never improved offensively at UCLA, and looked nothing short of useless when I saw him in the NCAA Tournament.

Minnesota Timberwolves:
Grade: A
Picks: Kevin Love, Nikola Pekovic

They may have given away Garnett, but you have to love the Wolves' haul in this draft, although their frontcourt rotation may be a bit overloaded now with Love, Jefferson, and Pekovic (if Pekovic comes over any time soon). The team will be much improved in the short term if Love and Miller can make an immediate impact, and according to Hollinger, Pekovic may be an even better prospect than Love, projecting to average 18.3 points and 12.0 rebounds per 40, with a PER of 17.09 if he played next year. I suspect that Pekovic is not actually that good, as he had very low steal and block totals, and also improved vastly from the year before, but by the time he gets out of his European contract, he ought to make a big splash in the NBA.

New Jersey Nets:
Grade: A-
Picks: Brook Lopez, Ryan Anderson, Chris Douglas-Roberts

I don't think the Nets have any future stars here, but they got strong value at each pick, getting the best big man on the board at #10, a highly productive scoring forward at #21, and a first-team All-American in the second round. A great draft that will bolster their depth and make their roster more enticing for LeBron 2010.

New Orleans Hornets:
Grade: A+
Picks: none

They didn't have any picks, but they did sign Illini alum Shaun Pruitt to a summer league contract!

New York Knicks:
Grade: A-
Picks: Danilo Gallinari

A common misunderstanding in ESPN's draft coverage, and of course one used as evidence in Dick Vitale's annual anti-foreigner rant, was that Gallinari is not ready to play in the NBA and was being drafted on potential only. This is so completely wrong that I was forced to yell helplessly at my TV, even knowing that no one could hear me. As John Hollinger has pointed out, translating stats from the Euroleague is actually more accurate than translating NCAA statistics. Gallinari is not an Alexis Ajinca, who played in a lower-level European league and didn't get much playing time. Despite being just 19, he played 31.6 minutes per game in the second-best league in the world, averaging 14.9 points per game. He posted a quite respectable PER of 19.6. If anything, he is more ready to contribute right away than the more touted NCAA freshmen, who did not spend last year playing against professionals, as Gallinari did. Hollinger projects that his rookie PER will be 13.21, which would be quite promising for a 20 year old player. He likely is not a future star, but despite the mislabeling by ESPN commentators who know nothing about the Euroleague, is a player who ought to be able to make an immediate impact and should be an above-average NBA starter in 3 years. Amen to Chad Ford, who I just noticed said pretty much exactly the same things as I just did in his draft grading.

Orlando Magic:
Grade: C
Picks: Courtney Lee

An OK pick, but I don't see a lot of evidence that Lee is anything more than a solid scoring guard who will come off the bench.

Philadelphia 76ers:
Grade: B
Picks: Marreese Speights

I have some qualms about Speights, but his statistics are overwhelming. My concerns are why he only played 24 minutes a game at Florida, and from what I've heard, it is related to his lack of conditioning and poor work ethic, neither of which are good signs. I fear that he will turn into a Mike Sweetney or Ike Diogu in the NBA, players who are very productive, but get little playing time due to other flaws in their games.

Phoenix Suns:
Grade: D
Picks: Robin Lopez, Goran Dragic

It seems to me that a collapse from the Suns is imminent. Maybe not this year, but it could be the year after. Their title window has passed and Nash's productivity will soon begin to decline. Picking #15, they're not going to solve all their problems, but they should at least have gone for a guy who has the upside to be a starter. Robin Lopez's upside is as an energy guy off the bench. I covered my dislike of selecting Robin with a mid-first round pick in our mock draft, so I won't go into it too much more except to say that the Suns really whiffed on this pick.

Portland Trail Blazers:
Grade: A
Picks: Jerryd Bayless, Nicolas Batum

I give the Blazers an A because although I am far from a fan of Batum, I am amazed that the Blazers managed to walk out of the draft with a potential 20+ ppg scorer in Bayless despite holding the #13 pick. Perhaps there is a non-arbitrary reason that Bayless slipped, in which case this may not be as much of a steal as I think. But I have not heard any newfound negatives against him, and I continue to think that he was one of the top 5 players in this draft. More importantly, the Blazers are absolutely stacked with Rudy Fernandez coming over from Europe and Greg Oden coming back from injury to join Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge. Their bench is loaded with young talent like Bayless, Batum, Travis Outlaw, Martell Webster, Sergio Rodriguez, Channing Frye, and Ike Diogu. Best of all with Raef LaFrentz and Steve Francis soon to come off the books, the Blazers may have the cap room to pursue a Chris Bosh, Dwyane Wade, or dare I say, a LeBron, in 2 years. This team may very well be the dynasty of the 2010s if they play their cards right (and if Oden and Fernandez are as good as expected).

Sacramento Kings
Grade: D
Picks: Jason Thompson, Sean Singletary, Patrick Ewing Jr.

I don't want to beat up on Jason Thompson too much but although his numbers are very good, the history of big men from small conferences isn't (unless they were totally dominant, a la David Robinson). Maybe he'll be a solid bench player, but if the Kings wanted him so badly, they should have traded down where they still could have gotten him and some other pieces of value. Their second-round picks also are not the most inspiring, especially Ewing Jr., whose selection makes a nice story, but this is a guy who played four years and never started in college. A prospect who already was an energy guy off the bench likely won't even be able to be that at the pro level.

San Antonio Spurs
Grade: B
Picks: George Hill, Malik Hairston, James Gist

You can criticize the Spurs for taking Hill with Mario Chalmers still on the board, but I still love them for rolling the dice with this pick. I want to see what George Hill can do in the NBA if he gets the chance, and now I'm going to get it.

Seattle Supersonics
Grade: C+
Picks: Russell Westbrook, Serge Ibaka, DJ White, DeVon Hardin

I think the Sonics have had the right idea with their organization - letting Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis go while stockpiling young talent for the Kevin Durant era. Yet apart from the obvious pick of Durant, I haven't been that big a fan of Sam Presti's draft choices. He's now used top 5 picks the last two years on Jeff Green and Westbrook, both of whom, in my mind, are most likely to be role players in the NBA. Green still has time to improve, but his rookie performance was not all that encouraging (single-digit PER). They've added more young, solid parts to their team, so I can't fault them entirely, but I don't see the #2 to Durant's #1 on their roster.

Toronto Raptors:
Grade: C
Picks: Nathan Jawai

It's hard to say, but I'm guessing that Jawai won't really pan out. He averaged about 18 points and 9 rebounds a game in the NBL, an Australian basketball league. From my brief visit to the NBL website, it does look like a legitimate league with some former NCAA stars, but it being a lower level you would hope that he would be more dominant. For comparison, Julius Hodge, a former first-round pick who never made it in the NBA averaged 24 points, 9 rebounds, and 6 assists per game in the NBL this year. Jawai was one of the better players in the league (8th in efficiency per 40), but this may not be enough.

Utah Jazz:
Grade: B
Picks: Kosta Koufos, Ante Tomic, Tadija Dragicevic

A solid, if unspectacular draft for the Jazz. Koufos is another example of a player who would have gone 15 spots higher five years ago and been a disappointment - at #23, he is a nice addition to the team. From what I've read about Tomic, he is a good second-round prospect, and Dragicevic, as the Adriatic League MVP, may have some potential, although his statistics were good, but not dominating.

Washington Wizards:
Grade: C-
Picks: JaVale McGee

I can't believe that I'm in this position, but I think DeAndre Jordan would have been a better pick here. A month ago, I was ready to write incendiary posts about how Jordan was an obvious bust. Yet if anything, McGee seems to be a more obvious bust. I think Jordan, if given the chance, will be a solid bench center. McGee is not only a year older than Jordan but has failed to make an impact at a lesser level of play. He is a decent shot-blocker, but historically, you would like a shot-blocker who averages 1 or more blocks per personal foul, and McGee is not at that level. At least the Wizards get some upside with this pick, although I doubt McGee reaches it.

NBA MOCK DRAFT 2008

Welcome to our 2008 NBA Mock Draft.

A couple comments should be made before we get started. Our selections are based on what Jeremiah and I believe teams should do, not what they will do. This mock draft is about evaluating talent and deciding how each team should approach improving their roster based on what's available. Jeremiah and I alternate picks, with myself assigned to the odd ones and Jeremiah the even. It's not a competition, merely a way to make it interactive for both of us and allow multiple approaches to drafting (though our methods are rather similar in most circumstances). We also conducted this draft before the debauchery of ESPN's own duo mock draft with Bill Simmons and Chad Ford, but because we are lazy it just took us several days to type up our comments and post it. Finally, constructive criticism and questions are greatly appreciated.

Without further ado... I am on the clock...
1.) Chicago Bulls: Michael Beasley
H: I know the media has been hyping Rose for several weeks now but Beasley's numbers are simply unreal. He can score (30.9 pts/40), get to the line (10 FTA/40), and rebound (14.6 r/40) better than any player in this draft while maintaining efficient percentages (53.2/77.4/37.9). He also fills the Bulls' long need for an interior scorer and with T.J. Ford soon to be on the trading market there are other ways to address Kirk Hinrich's sudden inability to play basketball.
J: Worst case, he puts up stats but isn't a championship-type player. Sure, that would be disappointing, but Rose is no lock to be a franchise player either.

2.) Miami Heat: Derrick Rose
J: Easy pick here. The Heat want Rose, and they get him in our mock draft. I will say that I see him more as a star than a superstar. It's hard for me to see him averaging 10+ assists per game, a la Deron Williams or Chris Paul, nor do I see him averaging 25+ points, like I believe Beasley is capable of doing. That's still a lot of room for him to be very good, and I believe he will develop into a more consistent version of Baron Davis.

3.) Minnesota Timberwolves: Jerryd Bayless
H: I know the Timberwolves are big fans of O.J. Mayo and while I certainly wouldn't scoff at picking him here, I'm a bigger fan of Bayless. I have much more faith in his ability to play PG than Mayo and I like the idea of a dual PG system with him and Foye on the floor at the same time. Bayless also has better penetrating ability than Mayo, getting to the line 3.4 more times per 40 while Mayo settled for 3's a larger percentage of the time.

4.) Seattle Supersonics: Kevin Love
J: If you look closely at the Kevin Love bandwagon, you can see me in the driver's seat, whip outstretched (think horses). He gets a decent number of blocks, some steals, and a whole lot of rebounds, suggesting that he is a better athlete than we are led to believe or he is crafty enough to make up for it. He is a very well-rounded player, who lest we forget, is not necessarily a finished product. He has plenty of time to drop 25 pounds and work on his explosiveness. Don't rule out All-Star berths in his future.
H: I like this pick a lot given that Bayless is off the board and that having two alpha-dog scorers like Durant and Mayo on the floor at the same time might not gel.

5.) Memphis Grizzlies: O.J. Mayo
H: The Grizzlies need a big man but Jeremiah kindly reminded me that I shouldn't reach for a team need when it comes at the cost of crossing a tier. Mayo, Bayless, and Love consist of what I would consider my second tier of players available and reaching for Lopez would be foolish with Mayo still available. Mayo is a dynamic scorer who plays great defense and will hopefully be a part of a strong backcourt with whomever the Grizzlies eventually choose to be their PG of the future.

6.) New York Knicks: Danilo Gallinari
J: Gallinari is fairly young and posted a 19.3 PER in the Euroleague this season. Historically, this is a high enough mark to suggest that he will be able to play in the NBA right away with a PER in the 11-13 range. At worst, a solid contributor, and at best, a great piece in Mike D'Antoni's offense who is young enough to get a lot better.
H: I agree with Jeremiah that Gallinari isn't necessarily the next best player available, but he brings a different atmosphere with him to the Knicks and this pick is by no means a reach. I think this pick would mark a strong effort to start rebuilding a franchise that has gotten so off-course and begin moving in a new direction.

7.) Los Angeles Clippers: Russell Westbrook
H: I'm not a big fan of Westbrook, but the Clippers are losing seven players this off-season and they'll still have a viable starter at each position except at PG. Westbrook will probably take a few years to develop as he settles into his new role (his PG/SG role was consistently morphing while at UCLA) but the franchise appears to be in no hurry to make a playoff run.
J: It's scary to draft Westbrook this high, since he won't be able to contribute much offensively as a rookie, but he does have the frame and athleticism to get better. A gamble, but worst-case is a defensive guard off the bench.

8.) Milwaukee Bucks: Joe Alexander
J: I'm bolstered by Hollinger's strong projection behind this pick. Then again, his system liked Tyrus Thomas too, who as Chad Ford points out, is another athletic, high-energy player who looks lost on the basketball court. Nonetheless I like Alexander. He is an 'upside pick', but, anecdotally, he has the work ethic to make the most of it.
H: I oscillate everyday between really liking this guy and not understanding his appeal. Either way I think this spot accurately represents his skill level relative to what's available.

9.) Charlotte Bobcats: Eric Gordon
H: I honestly don't know what I was doing with this pick. I don't like Felton but drafting Augustin just cause he apparently won't fit Larry Brown's system, as suggested by some, just seems wasteful. This team has gone nowhere in its four years and seem bent on establishing themselves as the Tampa Bay Devil Rays (they're still the Devil Rays in my mind no matter what management says) of the NBA. Gordon was falling and I just swooped in and grabbed in.
J: I still don't know what to think about Gordon. His rebound and assist totals are scarily low, and you can't trust his shooting numbers because of his late-season, injury-related slump. He could be a very good, if one-dimensional, scorer but also a flat out bust.

10.) New Jersey Nets: Brook Lopez
J: I see Lopez as a nice big man off the bench. He has a solid Hollinger projection, and is big and skilled. He shoots a low percentage but will be able to get his jump shots off with impunity thanks to his height. Not a lot of upside, but seems like a pretty safe bet to make a contribution.

11.) Indiana Pacers: Anthony Randolph
H: The third pick I don't enjoy making. I'm not a big fan of Randolph but the Pacers are set for the next four years at PG with Tinsley, ruling out Augustin. The main justification for taking Randolph is the Pacers' lack of a defined need and the fact they are just starting to rebuild and Randolph is a long-term project. At 18 he's the youngest player in the draft and though Hollinger has made special note of Randolph's potential shortcomings the Pacers might as well take the gamble given that they don't really have anything to lose.
J: Randolph was quite inefficient this season but is at least 18 and athletic. Gerald Wallace is an example of a similar player who after his freshman season was if anything, even rawer than Randolph at the same age, yet has gone on to be a pretty good player in the NBA.

12.) Sacramento Kings: D.J. Augustin
J: Augustin's pure point rating is more solid than spectacular (in truth, I prefer Ty Lawson, but he withdrew), and thus I see him more as a very good backup point who will score and distribute. For the Kings, that's enough to take the starting job.
H: This ordering worked out perfect for the Kings who just dealt Mike Bibby and immediately get a chance to begin finding his replacement.

13.) Portland Trailblazers: Mario Chalmers
H: I have been salivating over Chalmers' numbers for sometime now and John Hollinger corroborated my admiration of Chalmers with his PER regression study. Chalmers is undersized at 6'1" but a tremendous defender for his stature and a PG whose distributing ability continues to improve as his turnovers/40 numbers have plummeted each year (4.1/3.1/2.5). He plays off the ball well too, nailing over 45% of his 3pt FG attempts last year and this'll allow Brandon Roy to remain as a primary ball-handler on the offensive end. This pick would also allow the Trailblazers to move Steve Blake to the bench where he rightfully belongs.

14.) Golden State Warriors: Marreese Speights
J: Speights is an underrated scorer and rebounder. I perhaps should have taken Darrell Arthur here as Speights will need to improve his conditioning to fit in with Golden State (he only played about 25 minutes a game at Florida) but what can I say, I've been enamored with Speights ever since he posted a PER of 41 in limited minutes as a freshman. A classic 20-10 college power forward.
H: A reach in some people's minds but I really think people are underrating his numbers. I like Speights's potential and only qualm with him is the horrific spelling of his first name.

15.) Phoenix Suns: Brandon Rush
H: At 22 Rush may have limited upside but the Suns are in a win now mentality and Rush fits their system perfectly as a big wing who can shoot from range and also is a top-notch defender. He'll be there Raja Bell 2.0 presuming they don't sell this pick, which is always a possibility.

16.) Philadelphia 76ers: Darrell Arthur
J: I have to admit, I was not big on Arthur but his strong Hollinger projection has gone a long way to soothe some of my fears. Additionally, he was one of the key players on an absolutely loaded Kansas team, and it seems a good bet that on a team that was so dominant, there are bound to be some solid pros. The concern is his motor, but he would solidify Philadelphia's frontcourt rotation.
H: What I said for Speights goes for Arthur too. I think he'll fit nicely alongside Dalembert or as a role player off the bench.

17.) Toronto Raptors: Kosta Koufos
H: Koufos suits the Raptors' deficiency at the 5 spot and makes Radoslav Nesterovic and his $8 million expiring contract more expendable. I prefer Koufos over some of the other mid-late 1st round centers like DeAndre Jordan, Robin Lopez, and JaVale McGee because of his ability to get a decent number of blocks per 40 (2.8) without drawing too many fouls (3.3) and more importantly turned the ball over only 2.3 times per 40 while handling the rock far more often than all of the players mentioned above.

18.) Washington Wizards: DeAndre Jordan
J: I've never been a fan of Jordan, as he fits the stereotype of the classic bust center (then again, so did Andrew Bynum). Yet with his stock falling, it's worth mentioning that a similarly raw and young center, Sam Dalembert, turned out to be a useful player for Philadelphia after a few years. I don't see Jordan as a future star but at #18, he is good value.

19.) Cleveland Cavaliers: Chris Douglas-Roberts
H: The Cavs are really in need of better players at any position and ones who don't mimic the skill sets of others (ie: Pavlovic and Szczerbiak, Varajao and Wallace). CDR provides a scoring threat off the bench that isn't based around sitting and waiting for a teammate to draw a double-team and then dish them the ball. CDR will hopefully providing a slashing and driving attack that'll diversify the Cavs' offensive threat and ease the load on Lebron.
J: Don't forget that Chris Douglas-Roberts has apparently never lost a game of one-on-one. His numbers compare to a litany of bench shooting guards, but watching him play, he's anything but generic. Don't rule out the possibility that his unorthodox scoring abilities will serve him very well with the right team.

20.) Denver Nuggets: Alexis Ajinca
J: Okay I admit that I drafted Ajinca because I didn't really see any pressing needs for the Nuggets. Consider it my 'what the hell' pick. From what I've read about Ajinca, and after seeing Chad Ford's surprising condemnation of him, he probably isn't worth drafting this high.
H: I just started laughing when I saw this pick because I immediately knew Jeremiah's motives and concurred with them.

21.) New Jersey Nets: Richard Hendrix
H: This pick along with the 10th selection give the Nets two shots at strengthening their frontline. I reached for Hendrix over the other big men projected to go in the latter half of the first round but I feel it's justified. He mounted a grueling scoring record at 22.3 pts/40 while shooting 60% from the field. He rebounds at a strong rate (12.7), gets a decent number of blocks relative to fouls (2.5/3.7), doesn't turn the ball over (2.2), and grabs a surprising number of steals given his position (2.5). Overall, he's much more well-rounded than the any of the alternatives. Also props to Jeremiah for finding this sleeper, I couldn't pass up the opportunity to pick him though I'm sure Jeremiah would've preferred to, hehe.
J: Richard Hendrix is my boy! Unfortunately, he had a surprisingly low projected PER or I might have recommended that he go higher. It does seem odd to me that scouts are not higher on a player who is both athletic and productive, so this may be a sign that they know something I don't.

22.) Orlando Magic: Robin Lopez
J: Neither of the Lopez twins really get me excited, but Robin even less so. Supposedly he'll be an energy guy, but I feel that GMs are forgetting that players who were stars in college become energy guys in the pros and players who were energy guys in college head overseas in three years. The comparison to Joakim Noah is thus misguided, because Noah was a dominant and far more productive college player. Nonetheless, he's one of the best big men remaining at the board at this point. Also, I forgot about Roy Hibbert.
H: If you're noticing a big men trend, you're not the only one. This pick marks the 6th frontcourt player in the last seven picks, and the trend's not gonna stop yet.

23.) Utah Jazz. Roy Hibbert
H: I was initially looking in other directions (a better backup for Deron Williams would be nice) but reconsidered when I realized that Jarron Collins is the first man off the bench backing up Mehmet Okur. Hibbert hasn't always been the most aggressive player and he's pretty much already reached his peak, but the Jazz won't be demanding a whole lot from this selection. Hibbert should easily provide the defense and finishing ability (two of his best traits) the Jazz need from a big man off the bench.

24.) Seattle Supersonics: Donte Greene
J: Young enough to get better, but was a very inefficient player at Syracuse. Nonetheless, he should be able to create his own shot in the NBA, being a tall jump-shooter, and that's a first-round type of skill.
H: I really believe he's overrated given his numbers and I think his falling to the Sonics sufficiently illustrates our assessment of his skill set.

25.) Houston Rockets: Jason Thompson
H: They need a big guy to backup Yao, Jason Thompson's a big guy. He's also very good at rebounding.

26.) San Antonio Spurs: J.J. Hickson
J: Hickson's numbers are pretty good for a freshman, yet there is a certain stigma attached to him for playing on an awful team. I don't want to rely too much on team success, but it is a factor, and Hickson couldn't even bring NC State to a .500 level. Still, he's got some upside and would be a nice pick this late in the first round.

27.) New Orleans Hornets: JaVale McGee
H: Take word for word what I said about the Rockets' pick of Thompson, except replace "Yao" with "Chandler" and "rebounding" with "shot blocking".
J: The thing is, if centers aren't dominant in college, they usually don't amount to much in the NBA, where there are many more players who are their size. And it's worse if they're in a small conference. A Jason Thompson has fantastic numbers, but history says that it doesn't mean much playing for Rider. McGee played for Nevada, which is a little higher up the food chain, but was anything but dominant. A scary proposition when he couldn't really do much in a non-power conference.

28.) Memphis Grizzlies: Ryan Anderson
J: A couple years ago, I would have been all over Ryan Anderson as a sleeper, as he was a very productive scorer and rebounder at Cal. However, time has taught me that productivity does not always translate to NBA success (although lack of productivity generally translates to NBA failure), and in the case of Anderson, his woefully low steal and block totals imply that he doesn't have the athleticism to score at the same rates in the pros. Nonetheless, he's a nice pick at #28. Being tall and a very good shooter, he ought to be able to play a role off the bench.


29.) Detroit Pistons: Bill Walker
H: The forgotten sidekick of Michael Beasley. I actually think he's good enough to warrant a pick 6-7 slots higher but given the lack of star talent in this draft I felt team needs should play a larger role than small differences in skills. I'm a little perturbed by his complete lack of outside shooting but he rebounds very well for his size and is a very efficient and potent scorer inside the arc.
J: Walker is the kind of player who could be a huge steal in the late first or early second round. His numbers aren't overwhelming, but he's had a lot of injury problems and has shown some talent. It's not out of the question that he could turn out to be very good, although he would be a big risk with a higher pick, which makes him great for Detroit at 29.

30.) Boston Celtics: George Hill
J: Yeah, George Hill is a 6'2" shooting guard from a small conference. History has not been kind to these types of players. But goddamn, averaging 21.5 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 4.3 assists while shooting 45% from 3 is worth some major props. He showcased a versatile and flat-out dominant game at IUPUI, and apart from scoring 30 plus points a night, did everything possible to earn a long look at the end of the first round. Thanks to Hugh for the suggestion to take him here.
H: My big sleeper of the 2008 draft. Throughout the season I'll be routing heavily for Hill and Chalmers to validate my praise for them.