Sunday, September 24, 2006

The Top 25 Teams in College Football, Week 4

After another thrilling day of football (although teams ranked in the Top 25 almost invariably came out on top), I am proud to unveil Week 4's Top 25 teams. Although I didn't make any predictions per se in last week's edition, some of my comments proved themselves to be somewhat significant nuggets of wisdom. I pointed out my concerns with Georgia's offense under the hands of Matthew Stafford, and they of course found themselves in a 13-0 hole against winless Colorado. I suggested that Arizona State would break hard if they played anyone decent, and they also proved me right in a 49-21 blowout loss to Cal. Correspondingly, Cal will make a return to my Top 25 in their place. Along with ASU, Boston College also falls out of the Top 25 this week. Their 4th close game in a row saw them losing unimpressively to NC State. They may have beaten a Clemson team that I like a lot, but their other performances have been less than stellar.

1. Ohio State
The performance of Ohio State and other top teams today, even in wins, suggested to me that we may not see any undefeated squads by season's end. No one is looking dominant like USC and Texas could last year.
2. Michigan
Michigan tentatively holds the #2 spot this week, as they only pulled away late against Wisconsin, and saw their Notre Dame win somewhat cheapened by the Irish's performance against Michigan St.
3. USC
After a 20-3 win, this is clearly a new breed of USC team, but they may be just as dominant.
4. Auburn
5. Florida
6. West Virginia
Unlike the official polls, I don't hesitate to move teams down even in wins. WVU has to show me more than this.
7. Louisville
8. Texas
9. LSU
10. Clemson
I may be totally jumping the gun on this one, but despite a loss to now-unranked-by-me BC just 2 weeks ago, I really think Clemson is the team to beat in the ACC. They seem solid in all areas of play, especially on the offensive line. I also am unimpressed by a lot of the teams I jumped them over this week, which helps their cause.
11. Georgia
We'll see if Joe Cox can finally get the offense going, but Georgia was lucky to escape today, and they've got a long way to go towards being a national championship contender.
12. Virginia Tech
I just feel bad for a scrappy Cincinnati team that gamely battled both Ohio State and Virginia Tech on the road before falling apart in each game around the fourth quarter.
13. Oregon
14. Notre Dame
I may have given a positive word about their defense too soon. Only MSU's conservative playcalling in the second half (all runs, really?) let Notre Dame back in the game.
15. TCU
16. Oklahoma
For the first time in awhile, Oklahoma looked dominant again. Sure, it was against Middle Tennessee, but the Sooners didn't play like this against UAB.
17. Florida State
18. Tennessee
19. Iowa
Being a depressed fan of the Fighting Illini, I watched all of today's Iowa-Illinois match. Although Iowa took control of the game late in the second quarter, I am still skeptical as to how good Iowa is. I have a lot of faith in Drew Tate, but he is not going to be able to lead a weak supporting cast against Ohio State next weekend.
20. Penn State
Lost 28-6, but of course, the game was much closer than the score. I'm moving them up this week because I've never understood the logic of dropping a team that gives the #1 team a good fight.
21. Nebraska
I don't know if many people will notice this, but Nebraska just pounded the same Troy team that nearly beat Florida St. 56-0. Perhaps Bill Callahan is onto something this year.
22. California
I'm not totally sold yet, but I think I gave them a bad rub by not including them at all in last week's top 25. They could win a lot of games in the Pac-10.
23. Georgia Tech
24. New Hampshire
I'm going to stick to my guns on this one as long as NH stays dominant. And dominating they were this weekend, dropping Dartmouth 56-14.
25. Rutgers
The second new team in the Top 25 this week, I think they could play spoiler in the WVU-Louisville race for the Big East.

Team to Watch:

Houston (4-0)

I first noticed this team when I was playing NCAA Football 2007, and saw they were rated surprisingly well. They started the season without much aplomb, beating lowly Rice by just 1 point, but were led by star senior quarterback Kevin Kolb's 314 passing yards to a 34-25 victory over Oklahoma State today. With a win over a Big 12 team now under their belt, they look like an early favorite to win Conference USA. My one qualm is that they play at Miami next week, who will be hungry for any kind of win at 1-2. At the very least, the game will let us know just how far Miami has fallen.

Tuesday, September 19, 2006

The Top 25 Teams in College Football, Week 3

Alright, time to flex my evaluative muscles. With great gusto, I unveil my first weekly Top 25 College Football Poll. Unlike certain other polls, I have waited a few games to evaluate teams before releasing my decisions, although I still am influenced by general perceptions of team strength naturally. The preseason polls generally do contain the best teams in the country, after all. At any rate, on with the show!

1. Ohio State
Ohio State didn't look great against Cincinnati at first, but I think their ability to pull away for a big win said a lot about them.
2. Michigan
I'm ranking them #2 simply because they have a marquee blowout win to their credit. It could change, or maybe not.
3. USC
USC's defense may have improved over last year, and their offense isn't going to slouch all that much with John David Booty at QB.
4. Auburn
I'm not giving them as much marquee win credit as I did for Michigan, because I'm not at all impressed by their offense. You can't always win a 7-3 game.
5. West Virginia
Much as I suspect they might get killed by a true powerhouse team, you can't help but pull for them.
6. Florida
Big win over Tennessee, but I still think they have to prove themselves. Chris Leak is criminally underrated.
7. Georgia
Their defense impresses me hugely, but like Auburn, I don't see where their offense is going. Heavily hyped Matthew Stafford has been unimpressive at QB.
8. Louisville
Although they are clearly a better team than Miami this year, it was still a big deal for them to win by such a margin. It is perhaps the game that cements an unprecedented rise from mid-major school to national power. I think they can beat mediocre opponents without Brohm or Bush, but the lack of Bush (and possibly Brohm) could kill them against WVU.
9. Texas
I'm guessing Texas will settle in to become quite a strong football team this year, but we don't know anything about them yet.
10. LSU
Came out on the wrong side of a 7-3 battle. It will be a low-scoring year in the SEC.
11. Notre Dame
Obviously, commentators were too quick to praise Notre Dame's defense. Why? Well, if Notre Dame's defense were as bad as it were made out, they wouldn't have been ranked in the Top 5 in the first place. The defense was supposed to be the weak link to a national championship run, and indeed it was. Doesn't mean it's not good enough to shut down lesser opponents.
12. Virginia Tech
Haven't really played anyone yet, but have looked good doing it.
13. Oregon
Controversial win, and not really a legit title contender, but still a solid football team.
14. TCU
Get on the mid-major bandwagon! Who holds Texas Tech to 3 points??
15. Tennessee
Tennessee looks like they might have an up and down year, but they have certainly rebounded from their 5-6 campaign in style.
16. Clemson
I feel like Clemson was unjustly punished in the polls for a close loss to Boston College. This isn't a great team, but it's a good one.
17. Oklahoma
Played pretty well against Oregon, but for whatever reason, they seem to have fallen off more than temporarily from their lofty heights of the early 2000s.
18. Florida State
Is there any logic at all to having an 80-year old be the coach of your football team? I suspect his coordinators do all the coaching these days (witness the program's dropoff), but still.
19. Iowa
I don't even think Iowa is all that good, but Drew Tate is a hell of a quarterback, and the bottom parts of the Top 25 are filled with questionable teams anyways.
20. Boston College
3-0, but with so many close wins, it's some kind of courageous fluke. Nonetheless, they've eked out enough close wins already that they could easily wind up with a gaudy win-loss record.
21. Nebraska
We'll see on this team yet. I didn't expect them to do anything against USC, and they didn't, but they still may have something to say in the Big 12.
22. Georgia Tech
I thought Tech looked pretty good against Notre Dame. They at least have an exciting defense and a gamebreaking wideout (Calvin Johnson). No love in the polls, though.
23. Penn State
See Bowden, Bobby. I guess Bowden and Paterno have earned the right to stick around as long as they want, but I'm just saying, I don't trust the elderly with decisions.
24. Arizona State
3-0, and I love Rudy Carpenter, but they will break hard if they play anyone decent.
25. New Hampshire
Got to give some love to Division 1-AA, and although New Hampshire is ranked behind Appalachian State in the 1-AA polls, they certainly have the most impressive 1-AA win this year (35-17 over Northwestern). Also beat Stony Brook 62-7 this weekend, if anyone cares.

Teams to watch:

Missouri (3-0)
Rutgers (3-0)

Neither of these teams have wins important enough to get them into the Top 25, but each have chances to get off to hot starts. Missouri has home games against Ohio and Colorado, which could get them to 5-0 before a crucial road game against Texas Tech. Rutgers will most likely trip up on an upcoming 3-game road stand but it is believable that they could be 8-0 going into a home game against Louisville.