On the eve of the 2007 NBA Draft, I have elected to reveal the beginnings of my Similarity Scores project. Admittedly, this is not an entirely new development. In fact, I have taken cues from previous articles such as this one. However, a new year brings new information and as far as I know, no one has projected similarity scores for this year's draft.
A little background: Similarity Scores are a method introduced by Bill James in baseball to get an overall sense of where a player's development is heading. The theory behind it is that similar types of players will develop in similar types of ways. In basketball, we are much more excited about a shot-blocking center than a short point guard who can't create his own shot. Similarity scores compare draft prospects to past draftees in order to see which players they statistically most resemble.
I have intentionally limited the categories across which I make comparisons. I have tried numerous combinations, and different weightings, and have been pleased to see that generally similar results are yielded as long as height, weight, and age provide the baseline. My categories are height, weight, age, John Hollinger's pure point rating (an upgrade over assist/turnover ratio), Rebounds/40 minutes, steals/personal foul, blocks/personal foul, and three-point efficiency. The reason these categories have been chosen over more obvious ones like scoring rate and shooting percentages is because except in extreme cases, scoring rate and shooting percentages generally show very little correlation from the college to the NBA level.
Now, the results! For each player, I list his number of comparable players over 800 - this number is very small in some cases, but close to 40 in other cases. I chose to weight it this way rather than have 5 comps for some players and 150 for others. I then list the average rating of the player's top 10 comps, or all comps over 800 for that player, whichever is greater. NBA players are rated on a simple 1-5 scale: 1 is a bust, 3 a starter, 5 a superstar. (NBA players drafted between 1991 and 2003 are included as 'comps' in this project)
First, potential stars:
Greg Oden
Comps: 3
Avg. Rating: 2.4
Similar to: Tim Duncan, Chris Mihm, Joel Przybilla
Oden's average comp rating is only 2.4, halfway between a bench player and a starter. Although this rating is good by normal standards, I fully expect Oden to be a star in this league and a possible championship centerpiece. I don't put a lot of stock in these results because there simply aren't many good centers who have been drafted in the last 15 years. Tim Duncan shows up as his 5th best comp, which is promising, but with only 3 comps over 800, there aren't a lot of conclusions to draw anyways.
Kevin Durant
Comps: 0
Avg. Rating: 3.9
Similar to: Chris Bosh, Chris Webber, Carmelo Anthony
At least since 1991, there hasn't really been anyone like Durant. No freshman has dominated the NCAA like he did in quite a long time. The system comes up with a lot of young forwards who went on to be stars in the NBA, which is a good sign - but Durant may surpass them all.
Mike Conley, Jr.
Comps: 0
Avg. Rating: 3.1
Similar to: Jason Kidd, Mike Bibby, Allen Iverson
Again, there aren't many players truly similar to Conley, who combined an excellent pure point rating with a fantastic steals/pf ratio, all as a true freshman PG. His closest comparable players are strong ones, and like Durant, it is his uniqueness that suggests future stardom.
Brandan Wright
Comps: 0
Avg. Rating: 3.2
Similar to: Chris Webber, Joe Smith, Rasheed Wallace
Another strong freshman talent, his comps all grew up to be gifted offensive forwards in the NBA. He may not have the desire to be transcendent, but he has all the talent to average 20+ points within 3 years.
Al Horford
Comps: 3
Avg. Rating: 2.6
Similar to: Carlos Boozer, Rasheed Wallace, Lorenzen Wright
Horford is where the system stops projecting stardom for players, but I still think he'll be fine. Although it would be a disappointment if he turned into Lorenzen Wright, his comps mostly include solid NBA forwards, and I suspect he'll fall somewhere in between Wright and Boozer in terms of NBA success.
Corey Brewer
Comps: 19
Avg. Rating: 2.26
Similar to: Michael Finley, Latrell Sprewell, Bob Sura
Although I initially was sour on Brewer using this system, I now think he might have a lot of potential. It is probably underrating him, if anything, because it doesn't really pick up on his defensive potential. Moreover, despite my questions about his offense, players like Rip Hamilton and Jim Jackson also show up on his comp list. This suggests it is not unreasonable to expect him to develop an offensive game that will complement his defensive strengths and turn him into a possible All-Star.
Question Marks:
Here are some players who my system is not as high on. A lot of these players have tons of good comps, which suggests their skills are hardly unique, suggesting they are more fit to be bench players in the NBA.
Al Thornton
Comps: 14
Avg. Rating: 1.86
Similar to: Chris Mills, Ruben Patterson, Bryon Russell
Thornton is 23 and better be ready to make an immediate impact. There are zero top-level starters and stars among his 14 comps, suggesting that at best, he will be a solid starter, and possibly just a reliable bench player. This isn't all bad, but it means he lacks the clear upside of a Thaddeus Young.
Nick Young
Comps: 24
Avg. Rating: 1.8
Similar to: Steve Smith, Jalen Rose, Bryant Stith
Although his top 3 comps include Calbert Cheaney and Steve Smith, suggesting he does have some potential to stick in the league, the majority of his comparable players were wash-outs. Dahntay Jones, Lavor Postell, Michael Dickerson, Ed Gray, etc etc. Young is going to have to be a dead-eye shooter because his game doesn't bring much else to the table.
Jason Smith
Comps: 37
Avg. Rating: 1.89
Similar to: Bison Dele, Mark Blount, Francisco Elson
Smith, besides meeting the dreaded stereotype of a big white stiff playing in a small conference, also does not yield a list of promising comps. Many players were similar to him, and the majority of them simply weren't any good. I don't really see Smith bucking the trend.
Warren Carter
Comps: 31
Avg. Rating: 1.55
Similar to: Brian Cook, Roshown McLeod, Brian Scalabrine
Sorry, Warren.
Acie Law IV
Comps: 9
Avg. Rating: 1.7
Similar to: Jason Hart, Kirk Hinrich, Alvin Williams
Although I admire Law's hart, he's a tweener, and most of his comps turned out pretty badly. However, it is worth remembering that similarity scores provide a picture, not the whole story. Although these numbers suggest Law has a lot of bust potential, if some scouts are correct, he could also become a tougher version of Kirk Hinrich, and that wouldn't be all bad.
Solid players:
Joakim Noah
Comps: 14
Avg. Rating: 2.36
Similar to: P.J. Brown, Kenyon Martin, David West
Rodney Stuckey
Comps: 22
Avg. Rating: 2.18
Similar to: Steve Francis, Aaron McKie, Latrell Sprewell
Jeff Green
Comps: 5
Avg. Rating: 2.40
Similar to: Richard Jefferson, Lamar Odom, Jason Richardson
Julian Wright
Comps: 3
Avg. Rating: 2.60
Similar to: Antawn Jamison, Jerry Stackhouse, Rasheed Wallace
Spencer Hawes
Comps: 3
Avg. Rating: 2.30
Similar to: Tony Battie, Rasheed Wallace, Lorenzen Wright
Thursday, June 28, 2007
Wednesday, June 27, 2007
NBA Mock Draft
Welcome back to those who were with Jeremiah and I (and technically Jim) when we started this blog. We apologize for the extended break (second semester was...how shall we say...not as easy going as the first).
Anyway, with the Simmons and Ford Mock Draft recently completed on ESPN, Jeremiah and I decided to do our own. I drew the odd picks so I'll include commentary for the picks made by myself (and possibly some on Jeremiah's choices for the even number picks). He'll post later tonight about his thought process for some of these picks.
Without further introduction:
1. Portland - Kevin Durant
H: I'm in the camp of believing that Durant is a far better pick for Portland the Oden, but to the point where I'm placing him on a pedestal far beyond the other picks (ala Bill Simmons). If Portland took Oden immediately there's an alpha-dog battle at the 4/5 spots and there'd be a push, as there already is, to move Zach Randolph. As their desparation to move as increased his trade valued has declined and will continue to do so upon Portland solidifying their pick. So the choice is really Durant + Randolph > Oden + .66*Randolph because after the draft they're not getting full market value. I can easily see people's argument for Oden and I really think Portland can't go wrong, just in my opinion (IMO) they'd be better off w/Durant.
2. Seattle - Greg Oden
J: I finally settled for Oden after Hugh said I couldn't take Rich McBride. Excuse me for being a loyal Illini fan.
3. Atlanta - Mike Conley Jr.
H: Another controversial pick on my behalf but this one I feel much more strongly about. Statistical projections are lowering Law's predicted value combining that w/the fact that he's not as true of a point guard as Conley, I don't think the Hawks can pass here. I know this move probably leaves them without a big man at #11, but considering their array of young talent and their financial flexibility, it won't be hard for them to reconfigure their lineup if they don't Noah or Hawes later.
4. Memphis - Al Horford
H: Jeremiah and have long been on the Horford bandwagon before there was one, always believing him to be the best big man available after Oden.
J: Yep, although I don't think Horford will be quite as good as a Zach Randolph or Elton Brand, I still see him as an 18 and 10 kind of player in the NBA.
5. Boston - Joakim Noah
H: Wright doesn't work because you have Jefferson (and both are true PF's not big enough to play C), Yi doesn't work for a truckload of reasons (I'll write a post-draft article about how I believe he's going to be a bust), and J. Green has gotten some discussion but the Celtics already have G. Green and Wally at SF in addition to Pierce who occasionally slides in their. Noah fits talent-wise, need-wise, and personality-wise because he may be the only guy in this draft available at the five capable of convincing Pierce to stay (I wanna see Pierce whine about his supporting cast when Noah's out their busting his ass for 35+ minutes a night).
6. Milwaukee - Brandan Wright
J: There are legitimate questions about Wright regarding his desire and work ethic. Fair enough, but the man did post a fairly impressive freshman campaign (and would be seen if more impressive, if not for the post-Durantian world in which we walk today). He shot 65% from the floor, and at worst, should be a talented offensive big man along the lines of a Chris Bosh. Probably not a star, but a starter.
7. Minnesota - Jeff Green
H: Top-quality player fits into the roster nicely and his hesitancy to declare for the draft shouldn't be an issue with little pressure on him. The team will move Garnett, pick up a young package with picks and set themselves up nicely for a rebuilding stage (hell, if they play their draft cards right they may be able to rope in Hibbert next year).
8. Charlotte - Julian Wright
H: I jokingly offered Boris Diaw (on behalf of the suns) to Jeremiah for this pick, not realizing that a deal based around those two pieces actually make a lot of sense. Wright had been falling on many draft boards but Jeremiah jumped on him here, I have no major qualms w/this pick so I'll let Jeremiah defend it if he feels it necessary.
J: In my eyes, Julian Wright is a better version of Diaw, so I couldn't take that trade. Wright is never going to be a big scorer, but I think he has the versatile game that will allow him to be a valuable piece in a contending team.
9. Chicago - Spencer Hawes
H: I inadvertently hurt Jeremiah's bulls by snatching Noah early. I cringed at being now forced into taking Hawes or Yi (both of whom I dislike immensely). In the end I chose Hawes simply because Chicago needs a big man desperately and I don't see T. Young making it as a PF (I think he'll be a hell of a SF though).
J: Well, I do think Hawes has some upside, if only because of his age.
10. Sacramento - Thaddeus Young
H: This guy started so low on my board but I swear climbs a pick higher every time I go back and look at him. Sacramento could go in a lot of different directions with this pick but I think they needed to go young (ie: Not Thornton). They're gonna need to start rebuilding over the next couple years so I like them picking a player with high upside.
J: Thad Young, however, is much more intriguing to me than Hawes. He certainly did not prove himself to be a great one last season, but again, the heroics of Durant and Conley are completely atypical. Young is still far ahead of the curve for his age, although it is a risk to bet on his development.
11. Atlanta - Al Thornton
H: No doubt Atlanta would shit their pants if Yi fell to this spot, but he's the worst choice for a team like Atlanta or Boston who don't need a project. Thornton gives them an immediate impact and a roster that can easily make a run at the East playoffs in 2008.
12. Philadelphia - Corey Brewer
H: I've seen this guy land anywhere from the late teens to the top-5 in mock drafts but never has he landed in Philly's hands. Actually, I think this may be a nice fit for him. Considering the flak he's been taking, if he falters in Philadelphia it may go more unnoticed considering they are mid-rebuilding phase and the plethora of picks they have make it more likely they'll add at least on strong piece to their roster.
J: My similarity scores method (still in the works) suggests Corey Brewer will be a good, but not great player. I'd say he's definitely not a top 5 pick, because he's never going to average 20 a night (probably not even 15), and I'm concerned about his low block rate for such a supposedly great defender. Brewer could even fall flat on his face and bust, which is not what you want that high up in the draft. That said, I think he could be nearly as good a defender as a Bruce Bowen with a more diverse offensive game.
13. New Orleans - Nick Young
H: The first easy pick I get. Young's been falling in many people's eyes (mine included), but NO needs an SG and Young is still the best on the board.
J: There have been a lot of players with similar college numbers to Nick Young, and most of them sucked. I remain skeptical.
14. Los Angeles (Clipppers) - Javaris Crittenton
H: As mentioned before, Law's stock rose significantly post-tournament but has fallen of late. I don't see him getting past the Clippers but I'll let Jeremiah make his argument before I start ragging on any of his decisions.
J: I'll let you read more about Law when one of us picks him, but I think Crittenton has a lot more potential as a pure point. If not for his high turnover rate, he could already be as highly regarded as Mike Conley. A definite risk, but not a huge one.
15. Detroit Pistons - Rodney Stuckey
H: If Law falls to them, the Pistons very well by opt for him, but considering they've been so infatuated with Stuckey, I really didn't want to throw a huge wrench in the order and just opted for Stuckey. Frankly, the Pistons could go in a variety of directions and I'm comfortable with their expected choice.
16. Washington - Rudy Fernandez
H: I absolutely love this kid and if the Suns manage to get a higher pick but not within the lottery I hope they aim for Rudy. He's more of a catch and shoot guy who plays better off the ball (hence why I want him in Phoenix) so he won't detract from Arenas' ball-handling time and allows them to further spread the floor.
J: I just want to say that Fernandez's Euroleague numbers are so much better than Marco Belinelli's that I just don't see how they can be in the same tier.
17. New Jersey - Sean Williams
H: Marcus Williams feel to us last year because of off-court questions last year and no issues arose. Why not test fate again? I feel with the 17th pick you might as well take a gamble on a guy who could be a dominant defender (and provide more offense than Jason Collins) and work hard to ensure he stays focused. Who's gonna lead this guy astray anyway? Bostjan Nachbar?
18. Golden State - Yi Jianlian
H: I knew Jeremiah would be the one to pick this guy and this match actually makes a ton of sense (they've been coveting him for awhile now). I really hope this scenario happens because I can't imagine another peculiar character joining that rambunctious group. With Yi on the team how can they not make a sitcom out of this? Seriously, how could you not watch Stephen Jackson calling out Yi for not being tough enough in the paint followed by Yi being consoled by Biedrins who undoubtedly got yelled at some point for his absurdly inaccurate foul shooting technique? I'd buy HBO just to watch that show.
J: I actually think we waited way too long on Yi, but I wanted him to go to Golden State. Even if we think Yi is more likely to be a bust, he has too much upside to fall this far.
19. Los Angeles (Lakers) - Josh McRoberts
H: I originally thought of taking Jason Smith but quickly rescinded upon realizing that a guy from Colorado St. is not the best guy to be throwing into the media mess and soap opera that is the Lakers. McRoberts fills a similar need while be far more prepared for the hype considering his experience at Duke. This pick officially allows the Lakers to dangle Kwame's expiring contract as trade bait to try and satisfy Kobe (if he's still there).
20. Miami - Acie Law IV
H: Law fell awfully far in our draft but I think Miami may be a good fit for him. With the Heat slowly pushing J. Williams out the door, this pseudo-PG fills that growing need. It'll be interesting to see how Law and Wade, both combo guards capable of playing at the 1 but are better at the 2, play together when on the court at the same time. Wade's presence may also be a helping factor in allowing Law to tap into that "we're not fucking losing this game" mentality Law exhibited intermittently throughout the NCAA season.
J: Here's my problem: Bill Simmons argues for Acie Law on the basis of his ability to take over games in crunch-time. Regardless of whether you think this is an actual skill, clutch performance is usually irrelevant when drafting, a secondary concern at best. Why? Because we still haven't mastered the art of figuring out which players are going to be any good. My problem with Law is that he's a tweener, stuck between positions, and players that were similar to him in the past didn't turn out very well.
21. Philadelphia - Jason Smith
H: Now I'm forced to choose for a team that really has indicated no directional signs in terms of their desires for this draft. I almost went with Cook, but realized that they Jeremiah had already chosen Brewer for them earlier. Then I tried naming a big man on Philly other than Dalembert. I failed to without resorting to looking online (if you can, then serious props to you) and upon seeing the answer I quickly decided in favor of Smith.
22. Charlotte - Tiago Splitter
H: I have a fear of foreign big men with rebounding, strength, and aggressiveness deficiencies but Jeremiah opted for him claiming that it was his "i have no idea" pick.
J: He had to go sometime.
23. New York - Wilson Chandler*
H: *I opted to switch picks with Jeremiah, making him choose for the Knicks to allow me to pick for the Suns. The Knicks need a new GM really, but Chandler will be a nice addition anyway.
J: Wilson Chandler has mysteriously risen up draft boards of late despite little college hype, but I was surprised to see that he ranks well using similarity scores. I'll admit to not knowing a whole lot about him, but he seems worth a late 1st-round pick to me.
24. Phoenix Suns - Nick Fazekas*
H: I have been coveting this guy since day 1. A big guy who rebounds well and can shoot the three, isn't that precisely what the Suns need? Does nobody remember how perfectly Tim Thomas fit into the Suns rotation? Ehhhh, I can keep dreaming cause the odds of this pick happening wouldn't even be posted in Vegas. Phoenix fears the luxury tax like a soon to be bride fears calories, but they need to just suck it up and take a gamble on the vanilla frosted cupcake. I'm making myself hungry with this ongoing analogy.
25. Utah - Morris Almond
H: I actually have this guy ranked a lot higher on my board, but his true shooter style fits perfectly with the Jazz who need a scoring threat for Deron Williams to dish to. Almond may have trouble adjusting to a secondary role (he was the central figure on Rice's team) but as witnessed in Phoenix, it's hard to be mad when you're winning and have a great point guard getting you easy shots (I'm not saying Deron Williams is going to be the next Steve Nash, but hey, he looked awfully good down the stretch last year).
26. Houston - Glen Davis
H: Fazekas having been swiped, Davis fills Houston's need in the paint. This match may set up yet another great storyline, especially if Davis plays C as opposed to PF. Imagine Davis (6'9") coming off the bench for Yao (7'6") yet there's less than a 20lbs difference. How does this not completely throw off the other team's tactics on offense and defense? Furthermore, maybe Yao's borderline obsessive work ethic rubs off on Davis and he becomes even more athletic (I have to admit he moves pretty smoothly for a fat guy).
J: Glen Davis might just wind up getting too fat, but I see him making an immediate impact as a rookie. That takes him out of the second round, but his limited development potential keeps him in the late first.
27. Detroit - Marco Belinelli
H: With Weber leaving and McDyess one year older (also only one year left on his contract) a big man would probably be the best option. With Davis gone though (who doesn't really fit their system anyway) they'd really have to reach if they wanted front court help. I know people are pushing Byars or possibly even Green, but I couldn't possibly pass up the chance to see Detroit have yet another foreign player possibly implode. Yea, I'm a spiteful bitch who may have stopped taking this draft seriously at this point, but I'm still happy with my decision.
28. San Antonio - Jared Dudley
H: Another player who I think is underrated because I love his intangibles (hence my fondness for Noah, Law, etc.). I would love to see him land in the Suns' lap but the Spurs are a great fit for him. He may just be the next Bruce Bowen, which makes the Spurs even scarier considering the financial flexibility they can after next season.
J: I see him as a definite contributor. The Spurs really only need bench players, and Dudley will be a good one.
29. Phoenix - Petteri Koponen
H: A.) The Suns can keep him overseas if they don't think he's ready and avoid payroll issues. B.) He provides a young protege for Nash who's not named Marcus Banks and can actually shoot ::cough:: Taurean Green :: cough:: C.) He plays for a team called the Playboys! C'mon, that's gotta be reason enough. (Side Note: I'm hoping the Suns grab Jared Jordan in the second round as a plan B for Koponen)
30. Philadelphia - Warren Carter (not really, but Jeremiah insists)
H: A joke pick that can easily be supplemented with one of the numerous guard options available. A PG like Pruit, Green, or Sessions would be good here and allow them to work their way into the rotation behind Andre Miller before taking the reigns in a year or two.
J: I'm insulted that this would be labeled a joke. Carter is a rangy forward with 3-point range and decent athleticism. Like Kevin Durant without a feel for the game.
Final Thoughts:
I'm pretty happy with the result. Clearly the real draft will not resemble this at all, but I feel like Jeremiah and were able to mesh and convey our personal opinions on the skills and needs of the players and teams in this draft. I promise a future rant about my abhorring of Yi Jianlian and will be happy to discuss any questions or comments that you may have. Enjoy the draft!
Anyway, with the Simmons and Ford Mock Draft recently completed on ESPN, Jeremiah and I decided to do our own. I drew the odd picks so I'll include commentary for the picks made by myself (and possibly some on Jeremiah's choices for the even number picks). He'll post later tonight about his thought process for some of these picks.
Without further introduction:
1. Portland - Kevin Durant
H: I'm in the camp of believing that Durant is a far better pick for Portland the Oden, but to the point where I'm placing him on a pedestal far beyond the other picks (ala Bill Simmons). If Portland took Oden immediately there's an alpha-dog battle at the 4/5 spots and there'd be a push, as there already is, to move Zach Randolph. As their desparation to move as increased his trade valued has declined and will continue to do so upon Portland solidifying their pick. So the choice is really Durant + Randolph > Oden + .66*Randolph because after the draft they're not getting full market value. I can easily see people's argument for Oden and I really think Portland can't go wrong, just in my opinion (IMO) they'd be better off w/Durant.
2. Seattle - Greg Oden
J: I finally settled for Oden after Hugh said I couldn't take Rich McBride. Excuse me for being a loyal Illini fan.
3. Atlanta - Mike Conley Jr.
H: Another controversial pick on my behalf but this one I feel much more strongly about. Statistical projections are lowering Law's predicted value combining that w/the fact that he's not as true of a point guard as Conley, I don't think the Hawks can pass here. I know this move probably leaves them without a big man at #11, but considering their array of young talent and their financial flexibility, it won't be hard for them to reconfigure their lineup if they don't Noah or Hawes later.
4. Memphis - Al Horford
H: Jeremiah and have long been on the Horford bandwagon before there was one, always believing him to be the best big man available after Oden.
J: Yep, although I don't think Horford will be quite as good as a Zach Randolph or Elton Brand, I still see him as an 18 and 10 kind of player in the NBA.
5. Boston - Joakim Noah
H: Wright doesn't work because you have Jefferson (and both are true PF's not big enough to play C), Yi doesn't work for a truckload of reasons (I'll write a post-draft article about how I believe he's going to be a bust), and J. Green has gotten some discussion but the Celtics already have G. Green and Wally at SF in addition to Pierce who occasionally slides in their. Noah fits talent-wise, need-wise, and personality-wise because he may be the only guy in this draft available at the five capable of convincing Pierce to stay (I wanna see Pierce whine about his supporting cast when Noah's out their busting his ass for 35+ minutes a night).
6. Milwaukee - Brandan Wright
J: There are legitimate questions about Wright regarding his desire and work ethic. Fair enough, but the man did post a fairly impressive freshman campaign (and would be seen if more impressive, if not for the post-Durantian world in which we walk today). He shot 65% from the floor, and at worst, should be a talented offensive big man along the lines of a Chris Bosh. Probably not a star, but a starter.
7. Minnesota - Jeff Green
H: Top-quality player fits into the roster nicely and his hesitancy to declare for the draft shouldn't be an issue with little pressure on him. The team will move Garnett, pick up a young package with picks and set themselves up nicely for a rebuilding stage (hell, if they play their draft cards right they may be able to rope in Hibbert next year).
8. Charlotte - Julian Wright
H: I jokingly offered Boris Diaw (on behalf of the suns) to Jeremiah for this pick, not realizing that a deal based around those two pieces actually make a lot of sense. Wright had been falling on many draft boards but Jeremiah jumped on him here, I have no major qualms w/this pick so I'll let Jeremiah defend it if he feels it necessary.
J: In my eyes, Julian Wright is a better version of Diaw, so I couldn't take that trade. Wright is never going to be a big scorer, but I think he has the versatile game that will allow him to be a valuable piece in a contending team.
9. Chicago - Spencer Hawes
H: I inadvertently hurt Jeremiah's bulls by snatching Noah early. I cringed at being now forced into taking Hawes or Yi (both of whom I dislike immensely). In the end I chose Hawes simply because Chicago needs a big man desperately and I don't see T. Young making it as a PF (I think he'll be a hell of a SF though).
J: Well, I do think Hawes has some upside, if only because of his age.
10. Sacramento - Thaddeus Young
H: This guy started so low on my board but I swear climbs a pick higher every time I go back and look at him. Sacramento could go in a lot of different directions with this pick but I think they needed to go young (ie: Not Thornton). They're gonna need to start rebuilding over the next couple years so I like them picking a player with high upside.
J: Thad Young, however, is much more intriguing to me than Hawes. He certainly did not prove himself to be a great one last season, but again, the heroics of Durant and Conley are completely atypical. Young is still far ahead of the curve for his age, although it is a risk to bet on his development.
11. Atlanta - Al Thornton
H: No doubt Atlanta would shit their pants if Yi fell to this spot, but he's the worst choice for a team like Atlanta or Boston who don't need a project. Thornton gives them an immediate impact and a roster that can easily make a run at the East playoffs in 2008.
12. Philadelphia - Corey Brewer
H: I've seen this guy land anywhere from the late teens to the top-5 in mock drafts but never has he landed in Philly's hands. Actually, I think this may be a nice fit for him. Considering the flak he's been taking, if he falters in Philadelphia it may go more unnoticed considering they are mid-rebuilding phase and the plethora of picks they have make it more likely they'll add at least on strong piece to their roster.
J: My similarity scores method (still in the works) suggests Corey Brewer will be a good, but not great player. I'd say he's definitely not a top 5 pick, because he's never going to average 20 a night (probably not even 15), and I'm concerned about his low block rate for such a supposedly great defender. Brewer could even fall flat on his face and bust, which is not what you want that high up in the draft. That said, I think he could be nearly as good a defender as a Bruce Bowen with a more diverse offensive game.
13. New Orleans - Nick Young
H: The first easy pick I get. Young's been falling in many people's eyes (mine included), but NO needs an SG and Young is still the best on the board.
J: There have been a lot of players with similar college numbers to Nick Young, and most of them sucked. I remain skeptical.
14. Los Angeles (Clipppers) - Javaris Crittenton
H: As mentioned before, Law's stock rose significantly post-tournament but has fallen of late. I don't see him getting past the Clippers but I'll let Jeremiah make his argument before I start ragging on any of his decisions.
J: I'll let you read more about Law when one of us picks him, but I think Crittenton has a lot more potential as a pure point. If not for his high turnover rate, he could already be as highly regarded as Mike Conley. A definite risk, but not a huge one.
15. Detroit Pistons - Rodney Stuckey
H: If Law falls to them, the Pistons very well by opt for him, but considering they've been so infatuated with Stuckey, I really didn't want to throw a huge wrench in the order and just opted for Stuckey. Frankly, the Pistons could go in a variety of directions and I'm comfortable with their expected choice.
16. Washington - Rudy Fernandez
H: I absolutely love this kid and if the Suns manage to get a higher pick but not within the lottery I hope they aim for Rudy. He's more of a catch and shoot guy who plays better off the ball (hence why I want him in Phoenix) so he won't detract from Arenas' ball-handling time and allows them to further spread the floor.
J: I just want to say that Fernandez's Euroleague numbers are so much better than Marco Belinelli's that I just don't see how they can be in the same tier.
17. New Jersey - Sean Williams
H: Marcus Williams feel to us last year because of off-court questions last year and no issues arose. Why not test fate again? I feel with the 17th pick you might as well take a gamble on a guy who could be a dominant defender (and provide more offense than Jason Collins) and work hard to ensure he stays focused. Who's gonna lead this guy astray anyway? Bostjan Nachbar?
18. Golden State - Yi Jianlian
H: I knew Jeremiah would be the one to pick this guy and this match actually makes a ton of sense (they've been coveting him for awhile now). I really hope this scenario happens because I can't imagine another peculiar character joining that rambunctious group. With Yi on the team how can they not make a sitcom out of this? Seriously, how could you not watch Stephen Jackson calling out Yi for not being tough enough in the paint followed by Yi being consoled by Biedrins who undoubtedly got yelled at some point for his absurdly inaccurate foul shooting technique? I'd buy HBO just to watch that show.
J: I actually think we waited way too long on Yi, but I wanted him to go to Golden State. Even if we think Yi is more likely to be a bust, he has too much upside to fall this far.
19. Los Angeles (Lakers) - Josh McRoberts
H: I originally thought of taking Jason Smith but quickly rescinded upon realizing that a guy from Colorado St. is not the best guy to be throwing into the media mess and soap opera that is the Lakers. McRoberts fills a similar need while be far more prepared for the hype considering his experience at Duke. This pick officially allows the Lakers to dangle Kwame's expiring contract as trade bait to try and satisfy Kobe (if he's still there).
20. Miami - Acie Law IV
H: Law fell awfully far in our draft but I think Miami may be a good fit for him. With the Heat slowly pushing J. Williams out the door, this pseudo-PG fills that growing need. It'll be interesting to see how Law and Wade, both combo guards capable of playing at the 1 but are better at the 2, play together when on the court at the same time. Wade's presence may also be a helping factor in allowing Law to tap into that "we're not fucking losing this game" mentality Law exhibited intermittently throughout the NCAA season.
J: Here's my problem: Bill Simmons argues for Acie Law on the basis of his ability to take over games in crunch-time. Regardless of whether you think this is an actual skill, clutch performance is usually irrelevant when drafting, a secondary concern at best. Why? Because we still haven't mastered the art of figuring out which players are going to be any good. My problem with Law is that he's a tweener, stuck between positions, and players that were similar to him in the past didn't turn out very well.
21. Philadelphia - Jason Smith
H: Now I'm forced to choose for a team that really has indicated no directional signs in terms of their desires for this draft. I almost went with Cook, but realized that they Jeremiah had already chosen Brewer for them earlier. Then I tried naming a big man on Philly other than Dalembert. I failed to without resorting to looking online (if you can, then serious props to you) and upon seeing the answer I quickly decided in favor of Smith.
22. Charlotte - Tiago Splitter
H: I have a fear of foreign big men with rebounding, strength, and aggressiveness deficiencies but Jeremiah opted for him claiming that it was his "i have no idea" pick.
J: He had to go sometime.
23. New York - Wilson Chandler*
H: *I opted to switch picks with Jeremiah, making him choose for the Knicks to allow me to pick for the Suns. The Knicks need a new GM really, but Chandler will be a nice addition anyway.
J: Wilson Chandler has mysteriously risen up draft boards of late despite little college hype, but I was surprised to see that he ranks well using similarity scores. I'll admit to not knowing a whole lot about him, but he seems worth a late 1st-round pick to me.
24. Phoenix Suns - Nick Fazekas*
H: I have been coveting this guy since day 1. A big guy who rebounds well and can shoot the three, isn't that precisely what the Suns need? Does nobody remember how perfectly Tim Thomas fit into the Suns rotation? Ehhhh, I can keep dreaming cause the odds of this pick happening wouldn't even be posted in Vegas. Phoenix fears the luxury tax like a soon to be bride fears calories, but they need to just suck it up and take a gamble on the vanilla frosted cupcake. I'm making myself hungry with this ongoing analogy.
25. Utah - Morris Almond
H: I actually have this guy ranked a lot higher on my board, but his true shooter style fits perfectly with the Jazz who need a scoring threat for Deron Williams to dish to. Almond may have trouble adjusting to a secondary role (he was the central figure on Rice's team) but as witnessed in Phoenix, it's hard to be mad when you're winning and have a great point guard getting you easy shots (I'm not saying Deron Williams is going to be the next Steve Nash, but hey, he looked awfully good down the stretch last year).
26. Houston - Glen Davis
H: Fazekas having been swiped, Davis fills Houston's need in the paint. This match may set up yet another great storyline, especially if Davis plays C as opposed to PF. Imagine Davis (6'9") coming off the bench for Yao (7'6") yet there's less than a 20lbs difference. How does this not completely throw off the other team's tactics on offense and defense? Furthermore, maybe Yao's borderline obsessive work ethic rubs off on Davis and he becomes even more athletic (I have to admit he moves pretty smoothly for a fat guy).
J: Glen Davis might just wind up getting too fat, but I see him making an immediate impact as a rookie. That takes him out of the second round, but his limited development potential keeps him in the late first.
27. Detroit - Marco Belinelli
H: With Weber leaving and McDyess one year older (also only one year left on his contract) a big man would probably be the best option. With Davis gone though (who doesn't really fit their system anyway) they'd really have to reach if they wanted front court help. I know people are pushing Byars or possibly even Green, but I couldn't possibly pass up the chance to see Detroit have yet another foreign player possibly implode. Yea, I'm a spiteful bitch who may have stopped taking this draft seriously at this point, but I'm still happy with my decision.
28. San Antonio - Jared Dudley
H: Another player who I think is underrated because I love his intangibles (hence my fondness for Noah, Law, etc.). I would love to see him land in the Suns' lap but the Spurs are a great fit for him. He may just be the next Bruce Bowen, which makes the Spurs even scarier considering the financial flexibility they can after next season.
J: I see him as a definite contributor. The Spurs really only need bench players, and Dudley will be a good one.
29. Phoenix - Petteri Koponen
H: A.) The Suns can keep him overseas if they don't think he's ready and avoid payroll issues. B.) He provides a young protege for Nash who's not named Marcus Banks and can actually shoot ::cough:: Taurean Green :: cough:: C.) He plays for a team called the Playboys! C'mon, that's gotta be reason enough. (Side Note: I'm hoping the Suns grab Jared Jordan in the second round as a plan B for Koponen)
30. Philadelphia - Warren Carter (not really, but Jeremiah insists)
H: A joke pick that can easily be supplemented with one of the numerous guard options available. A PG like Pruit, Green, or Sessions would be good here and allow them to work their way into the rotation behind Andre Miller before taking the reigns in a year or two.
J: I'm insulted that this would be labeled a joke. Carter is a rangy forward with 3-point range and decent athleticism. Like Kevin Durant without a feel for the game.
Final Thoughts:
I'm pretty happy with the result. Clearly the real draft will not resemble this at all, but I feel like Jeremiah and were able to mesh and convey our personal opinions on the skills and needs of the players and teams in this draft. I promise a future rant about my abhorring of Yi Jianlian and will be happy to discuss any questions or comments that you may have. Enjoy the draft!
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)