Similarity Scores, continued

After some frustration with my attempts to use Similarity Scores as a prospect rating system, I have decided to try and take a closer look at some of the top prospects' most comparable players.

Although I will try and post more player comparisons in the coming weeks, let's throw out a few intriguing comparables.

Kevin Durant (pace-adjusted, per 32 statistics follow)

Durant: 26.4 ppg, 11.4 rpg, 1.3 apg, .473 FG, .404 3P
Keith Van Horn: 26.5 ppg, 11.4 rpg, 1.7 apg, .492 FG, .387 3P

An astute reader wrote in to Bill Simmons calling Durant the next Van Horn, and on the surface, those fears seem to be realized. Both are skinny 6'10" scoring forwards with 3-point range and eerily similar college numbers. Van Horn went on from this senior season to post a 15.7 PER as a rookie, following it what would be a career high PER of 19.6 in his second season. Although a good offensive player, Durant would be a big disappointment if his peak was Keith Van Horn.

Here are some more stats:
Durant: 1.9 stlspg, 2.0blkspg, 18 years of age
Van Horn: 0.8 stlspg, 1.4blkspg, 21 years of age

Now we see why Durant has more potential. Durant was able to accumulate far more steals and blocks, suggesting that he is the greater athlete and likely the better defender. Most importantly, Durant is three years younger than Van Horn when he entered the draft. Although there are some players who never develop after age 19 (and Van Horn might be one of them), this is rare. The fact is, had Durant spent three more years in college, we might expect his numbers to dwarf Van Horn's. In terms of projecting Durant's playing career, this is quite tantalizing. Instead of saying that Durant's peak will match Van Horn's, we can now see that a slightly more athletic version of Van Horn is probably the worst-case scenario for Durant's career. This is a strong way of suggesting that Durant will easily post PERs in the mid-20s, and should be able to surpass Van Horn's rookie mark of 16.5.

Al Horford

Horford: 18.1 ppg, 13.0 rpg, .608 FG, 3.0 apg, 2.5 blkspg
Elton Brand: 20.3 ppg, 11.2 rpg, .620 FG, 1.2 apg, 2.5 blkspg
Zach Randolph: 20.8 ppg, 12.9 rpg, .587 FG, 2.0 apg, 1.3blkspg
Carlos Boozer: 21.3 ppg, 10.1 rpg, .665 FG, 1.3 apg, 0.7 blkspg

First off, I don't even want to think about how a 20-10 guy shooting 67% from the field dropped to the 2nd round. Secondly, it should be clear that Horford's college numbers hold up pretty well to those of the top power forwards in the NBA today. Although slightly weaker as a scorer, Horford's numbers are excellent in every respect. If he winds up as a better player than Zach Randolph, and I think he will, he was certainly worth the #3 pick.

A disclosure:

Michael Bradley: 22.0 ppg, 10.3 rpg, .692 FG, 2.8 apg, 1.9 blkspg

Bradley, a first-round pick in 2001, only had one season in the NBA where he played more than 500 minutes and is currently out of the league. He was drafted two spots ahead of Zach Randolph. Honestly, I can't say what was wrong with Bradley, and until I find out, there is an inherent amount of estimation in this process. Nonetheless, as a #3 pick in a deep draft, Horford is one of those players where the stats and scouts agree, and that's the best recommendation I can give.