The key to spotting busts in the MLB

Jerry Crasnick called out about half dozen so called "sluggers" today, all of whom are failing to produce the numbers expected of a cleanup hitter. These players include Jeromy Burnitz, Preston Wilson, Richie Sexson, Frank Thomas, Adrian Beltre, Cliff Floyd, and Rondell White. But are these disappointments really a surprise? Should we really be expecting better out of these players? GM's need to learn some basic rules about understanding statistics before throwing money at players that will ultimately fail to earn the millions dollars that they're getting.

Jeromy Burnitz:
I have detested this guy ever since the Mets made the move to get him. I'll give him credit, he can hit 30 home runs a year but that's the extent of his skills. He lacks any defensive skills and has minimal speed (don't quote me his 20 sb's in 97 cause he also got caught 13 times, and his sb/cs totals are an ugly 74/58). As for the hitting, never rely on a guy who can't consistently .260 and strikeouts out as often as he gets a hit. Players who lack the ability to put the ball in play will struggle far more often than contact hitters. DO NOT BUILD AROUND ALL OR NOTHING HITTERS (RULE #1).
Note: Everything I just said is applicable to Preston Wilson (except he actually can run) and Richie Sexson (who has slightly more power as a result of his 6-8 stature).


Franks Thomas:
I'll waste no time; DO NOT RELY ON INJURY RECOVERING VETERANS (RULE #2). This rule is even more important when the player is no longer physically fit (ie: Mo Vaughn). Thomas hasn't been a true offensive threat since 2000 and has battled through numerous injuries and significant weight gain since that time. Don't buy into this kind of player making a comeback, don't expect anything more than production you could just as easily get from one of your bench players.

Adrian Beltre:
A highly touted prospect who provided the dodgers with 5 and a half years of disappointment until what many obviously recognized as a fluke season in 2004. The Mariners sadly were not able to see through Beltre's facade and disobeyed RULE #3: DON'T MISTAKE A FLUKE SEASON FOR ACTUAL TALENT. Look for consistency in a player's performance, Beltre sudden transformation in after five years in the majors would clearly not last. Beltre's lack of talent was magnified when he moved from a hitters ballpark and division without pitching staffs, to a much larger park where he would have to face the aces of Oakland and Anaheim (not Los angeles or california or whatever district they are clinging to now) more than dozen times each.

Rondell White:
Never was a big hitter for the sole reason that he only had > 500 at bats twice in his career. The guy's various health problems make him the quintessential offensive tool off the bench. That being said, his numbers this season are shockingly poor, but the Twins should not be in a position where they are relying on aging player who is now on his 7th team in 8 years for big numbers. White's struggles reveal a trend more than a rule: When a player gets tossed around from team to team, and is unable to settle into any clubhouse or grove, his numbers will suffer. A player needs one hitting (or pitching, or bench, etc.) coach whispering in his ear, not half a dozen. Cliff Floyd sadly endured the same difficulties and his hoping from team to team (which was not his fault) may be the cause of his collapse.

Aramis Ramirez:
Frankly I don't understand this kid. His ability to hit one season but not the next is something I've never witnessed. Frankly, if a player's average is deviating over 20 points every year, you shouldn't be giving him more than 10 million dollars. (Rule #4) DON'T INVEST MAJOR MONEY UNLESS YOU ARE POSITIVE THE PLAYER WILL PERFORM ACCORDINGLY. Wanna know why the Cubs haven't made an effort to support their pitching staff or lineup in the past few off-seasons or possibly dedicated a little more money to the medical staff? Because they gave all their money to Ramirez, and now have to suffer while they watch him fail to fill the shows of Derek Lee.

They major message is to look for consistency in performance. If you wanna take a risk in a streaky player like Ramirez or White, don't make him the centerpiece of your offense and certainly don't sacrifice a significant portion of your budget to obtain him.