Friday, July 28, 2006

If at first your don't succeed...

Try try again? And again? And......

When John Hart resigned as the Rangers' general manager following the 2005 season, the job was handed over to his incredibly young (only 28 at the time) protégé Jon Daniels. Hart had focused his efforts to improve the team's offense rather than the pitching ever since he arrived in Texas in 2001. Even before then Hart had always hungered for offense, building his previous franchise, the Cleveland Indians, around the theory that you could ignore pitching and merely outscore the opposition every time.

Well, his theory worked…to an extent. His dual trips to the World Series gave him the confidence to maintain that mentality when he changed franchises and to implore Daniels to do the same afterward he resigned.

Daniels learned well, keeping the team in a competitive state where they are well within reach of a playoff birth (something they haven’t seen since 1999). His recent acquisition of Carlos Lee has stirred the baseball world, as it is the first transaction involving a major player in the final weeks of the trading portion of the season. Yes he has added one of the more potent available bats to an already strong offense, but once again the Rangers are without any sort of pitching.

Padilla and Millwood are the only two starters with an ERA under 5.00 and are undoubtedly the weakest 1-2 combo of any team within reasonable playoff contention. There bullpen has been dodging bullets all season, the only bright spot has been Otsuka's emergence as a reliable closer. In fact other than Otsuka and Padilla no other pitcher has a WHIP under 1.30 (for those unfamiliar with the stat, 1.25 is considered decent).

Surely the Rangers could just slug there way to playoffs and then....

Well that's where the fairy tale ends because the Ranges have tried this style of play before. The offense has been the center point of the team's meager success for over a decade. Though they did capture 3 division titles over the 10 year span, the team also holds a collective 1-9 record once reaching the October spotlight and it's because they lacked pitching. The Rangers have not had a starter with an ERA under 4.00 for a decade, other than occasional appearances by a man called Rogers (Kenny seems it necessary to play for the Rangers every couple of seasons just to give the appearance that the franchise is focusing on building a legitimate staff).

Daniels even went to the effort of signing Kevin Millwood you say? Millwood has been shaky 2 or 3 starter and is not the man to be harnessing the reigns of a staff in a historically hitter's ballpark. He's not the man that'll lead you to a title, and while many would argue that Daniels was merely building a team to make the playoffs, not the World Series, why on earth did he just trade for a 2 month rental at the cost to his bullpen and possible future of his outfield? (Actually that's not fair because Laynce Nix is a bust, Mench is mediocre, but not great, and Cordero's mechanics are so disrupted that he shouldn't be expected to return to his previous until at least the beginning of next season).

The Indians did it! They trampled teams in their wake to two AL Pennants! We could just keep adding offense and be true tribute to John Hart!

Yes they did, but even they had three mediocre starters (Orel Hershiser, Dennis Martinez, and Charles Nagy) who were better than Rangers' two man tandem. The Indians had also assembled one of the most potent offenses this half century has ever seen. In 1995 they EIGHT players hit above .300 and two years later they had a 3-4-5 combo that all had at least a .320 average and 20 home runs. Eddie Murray, Manny Ramirez, Kenny Lofton, David Justice, Jim Thome, Randy Alomar, Sandy Alomar Jr., Matt Williams, and Carlos Baerga all started in the Indians' array of lethal lineups throughout the 90's. Hell Richie Sexson and Brian Giles were on the bench!

When that kind of hitting can't get you a championship I don't know why any general manager or owner would believe they could do it in an era that has suddenly begun to swing back to an age of pitching. All of the previous championships teams have structured their teams around an aspect of their pitching: The White Sox' starting staff, the Red Sox' Schilling/Martinez (+ an incredibly underrated bullpen), the Marlins' young guns, the Angels’ untouchable pen, Schilling/Johnson in Arizona, and the Yankees' dynasty could not have existed without a bevy of veteran starters and the greatest closer in baseball.

One must one wonder how long it will take Daniels and other GM's to finally listen to cliché saying that still rings true: Good Pitching Always Beats Good Hitting (especially in a seven game series).

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