The State of Baseball in Chicago

The Cubs and White Sox are repairing their organizations after each had disappointing seasons in 2006. Despite sharing one of the largest media markets, neither has been able to harness the advantages associated with playing in a major metropolis. This off-season though, the Cubs are trying to break their tradition of watching the other large market teams (i.e.: Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers) monopolize the free agent and trading markets. The Cubs have spent an incredibly large sum of money in hopes of capturing a division title while their southern brethren have taken a far different approach.

The Cubs have signed five new free agents and have renegotiated contracts for four players already on their roster. The largest contract handed out by the White Sox this off-season, other than the exercising of their team options on Mark Buerhle and Jermaine Dye, was a two-year deal to backup catcher Toby Hall. Instead of handing out the big bucks, the Sox have actually been dealing several pieces of their pitching staff in an attempt to not only shed a little payroll, but to get a little younger as well.

Here's a breakdown of the moves made by each of the Chicago-based teams and how these decisions should play out over the course of the 2007 season and beyond:

Chicago Cubs:
Alfonso Soriano ($16 million/year for 8 years) – There's no doubt that the newest member of the illustrious yet tainted 40-40 club is a joy to watch and is unlike any player on the field today. Still, his unique skill set is what leads to his downfall as a player and detracts from his overall worth. We are all aware of his defensive inefficiencies, but his ability to compensate at the plate is dulled when playing in the National League. If you bat him in the heart of the order his batting average—in his career performances—drops by more than 20 points. The more troubling problem is then that you lose the ability to properly capitalize on his speed now that he is lumped behind slower runners. Yet if he bats first, he fails to adequately get on base a sufficient number of times to make him a “great” leadoff man (note that he did in fact double season walk total in Washington this past season; it’ll be interesting to see if he can maintain this improved walking rate while lowering his strikeout rate back down to his already high average). The other qualm with leading him off is that in the National League, he often is forced to bat with the bases empty, in a non-critical situation where he can’t drive in runs. Nearly 2/3 of his home runs came with no one on base, preventing him from recording 100 RBI’s despite having more than 40 home runs and 40 doubles. These factors make him far less valuable than one would initially believe by skimming his statistics. While the $16 million per year may be a daunting figure, the scarier thought is that Soriano will be 38 during the final year of this nearly decade-long deal. Soriano will certainly be sold as the new centerpiece of this franchise, but how long will it be before the Cubs fans turn on him as quickly as they did on Sammy Sosa for not living up to their monumental expectations.

Ted Lilly ($10 million/year for 4 years) – A decent #4 starter who’s been just good enough to avoid being called a disappointment. Expect his ERA and WHIP to drop now that he’ll be escaping the most ferocious division for pitchers and entering the comforts of the National League. Still be weary of his home run totals, Lilly is a flyball pitcher who may be hurt by the friendly and often windy confines of Wrigley Field. All in all, the signing was a smart one for the Cubs, seeing as they need a starter other than Zambrano to give them 25+ starts (something Lilly’s done in all of his previous four seasons).

Jason Marquis ($7 million/year for 3 years) – Seven million dollars a year for a guy who couldn’t make the postseason rotation for a team that had only two starters with an ERA under 4.20?

Mark Derosa ($4.3 million/year for 3 years) – The guy did hit .296 with 40 doubles and can play an array of positions. This is the same guy who strikes out twice as often as he walks, is 32, and is a below-average fielder at nearly all the positions he plays.

Aramis Ramirez (Resigned for $14.6 million/year for 5 years) – Has greatly improved his bat control since arriving from Pittsburgh and his numbers reflect it. Just 28 years old and could easily improve those numbers with the return of Lee and addition Soriano to the lineup.

Chicago White Sox:
Mark Buerhle and Jermaine Dye options ($9.5 and $6.75 million respectively) – Buerhle barely evaded a 5.00 ERA last year but the five previous seasons all point to his ability to rebound. At $9.5 million Buerhle is bargain for a guy who has been one of the most consistent and reliable starters in the AL. Dye, the comeback story of the year, may not be able to reproduce his stunning numbers of 2006 but at his price even a drop off to .280-30-100 would still make him a cheap sign considering the current market.

Freddy Garcia dealt for Gavin Floyd and Gio Gonzalez – One of the best deals this summer in that it solved problems for both sides. The White Sox, loaded with middle of the rotation quality starters, could afford to gamble on young arms while the Phillies needed a veteran starter to anchor their young staff. Gavin Floyd has been hyped since being drafted as the #4 overall pick in 2001, but hasn’t yet lived up to it. His problems have supposedly been more mental than physical and it will prove interesting to see how the White Sox’s unorthodox clubhouse accommodates the young gun. Ken Williams didn’t bank the trade’s worth solely on Floyd’s success, he smartly acquired Gio Gonzalez. A good Double-A prospect who’s only limiting factor may be his erratic control—a skill easily improved as he matures through the system (he’s still just 21). Still, I’m surprised to see the White Sox give up such a quality arm for two inconsistent prospects.

Brandon McCarthy to Rangers – A deal that caught the entire baseball world off-guard given Ken Williams’ high demands for one of the more highly touted pitching arms. Confident that they’d have a sufficient number of players to fill the current rotation, Williams once again went for a younger crowd. The deal didn’t net the Sox a whole lot and considering the number of teams interested in McCarthy, you wonder if they could have negotiated for more. John Danks is a top-tier prospect and could fit into the rotation—if there’s any room—midway through 2007, turning all the other White Sox starters into enticing trade bait come late July should they need to fill various holes in their squad. Nick Masset is a good pitcher who will be able to provide bullpen depth and the other pitcher acquired by the White Sox Jacob Rasner is a useless player who is struggling mightily in Single-A. Still the White Sox had to give up Venezuelan outfielder David Paisano, who tore through rookie ball and just turned 19 a month ago. If his frame ever fills out (just 165lbs despite being 6’1”) he may add some pop to his bat and turn himself into a quality prospect. I see Danks and McCarthy on the same skill level, just on different platforms in their age development so the deal essentially boils down to Masset for Paisano, which benefits the Sox but not by an incredible margin.

Cubs & Sox:
Neal Cotts for David Aardsma and Carloz Vasquez – Cotts regressed back to the hard throwing yet hittable relief pitcher in 2006 and I’d be surprised if he were able to summon his dominance again. Aardsma may have been a disappointment considering he was a 1st-round pick back in the day, but he held batters to a .214 batting average last season in his stint as a reliever for the Cubs. His sudden success at the age of 25 may prove to be a fluke, but he’s certainly a better bet then Cotts. In addition the White Sox acquired Vasquez, who should make the Triple-A squad next season and despite being 25 as well will give the Sox yet another option for bullpen help. The Sox pulled a fast one here, getting two pitchers for the price of one—that one being more inconsistent and eligible for arbitration far sooner than the other two.


All things considered, you wonder how two franchises—even given that they finished in starkly different positions—could still take such drastically different approaches to improving their squads.

The White Sox are in a good position to rebound and contend in the newer, tougher AL Central. They’re clearly planning to remain competitive not only in 2007, but beyond; yet considering the hoard of pitching they had stashed the Sox kept their objectives conservative. Rather than furbish their farm system with a collection of high-quality prospects, Williams opted to merely restock their ailing bullpen.

Jim Hendry, general manager of the Chicago Cubs, has clearly anticipated the need to surround new coach Piniella with high-caliber players but may have sacrificed his team’s financial future in the process. I would hope that these recent acquisitions are in no way related to the Tribune Co. possibly looking to sell the team—which would warrant the purchasing of top-tier players in order to raise the franchise’s value since a new stadium (the best way to improve a team’s overall value) is out of the question. Still, this team’s success on the field relies on the healing bodies of Prior, Lee, and Wood and should they not come through, this franchise may be in for a long series of disappointing seasons.


Statistics and other relevant information for this article were found at mlb.com, milb.com, and baseball-reference.com.