NFL Divisional Round Preview

It's been awhile since I've posted on this blog but I want to give a preview of this weekend's NFL playoff games, with regards to the four quarterback matchups.
For this preview, I am using a statistic called Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AYPA), which is simply (Pass Yards + Pass TD*10 - Interceptions *45)/Attempts).

This doesn't factor in rushing or sacks, nor does it factor in strength of teammates, but it is a nice summary statistic that is less arbitrary than the NFL's quarterback rating. I also will look beyond regular season numbers and see which quarterbacks have historically raised or lowered their games in the playoffs.

Here is a rough guideline of how to interpret the AYPA numbers:

5 - mediocre
6 - average
6.5 - above-average
7 - Pro Bowl
7.5 - MVP

The matchups:

Baltimore at Tennessee

Joe Flacco - 2008: 6.0 AYPA (rookie)
Kerry Collins - 2008: 6.0 AYPA; Career: 5.5 AYPA; Postseason: 4.75 AYPA

This matchup is difficult to assess since Flacco is a rookie. Collins has had the worst career of any of the quarterbacks still alive in the postseason, but he still may have the advantage in this matchup due to Flacco's inexperience. It is worth noting that despite Collins' mediocre career numbers, he gets worse in the playoffs. Still, I think the Titans will prevail here.

San Diego at Pittsburgh

Ben Roethlisberger - 2008: 6.0 AYPA; Career: 6.76 AYPA; Postseason: 6.20 AYPA
Philip Rivers - 2008: 8.1 AYPA; Career: 6.90 AYPA, Postseason: 6.39 AYPA

Looking at career regular season and playoff numbers, Rivers looks slightly better overall. Both have declined in the playoffs, but both are still strong playoff performers, and some decline is to be expected due to the higher quality of defenses. Based on 2008 numbers, however, Rivers crushes Roethlisberger. Rivers led the NFL in AYPA by a wide margin, and he makes the Chargers an extremely dangerous team despite their 8-8 regular season record. I picked the Steelers to win the Super Bowl in part because of Roethlisberger's past successes. Looking at these numbers, though, I am worried that this may be a mismatch in favor of Rivers. Still, I lean towards the Steelers since they have a superior defense and home field advantage, but it may be a closer game than expected.

Arizona at Carolina

Kurt Warner - 2008: 7.1 AYPA; Career: 7.11 AYPA; Postseason: 7.22 AYPA
Jake Delhomme - 2008: 7.0 AYPA; Career: 6.41 AYPA; Postseason: 7.95 AYPA

Surprisingly, this game pits the two quarterbacks with the gaudiest playoff statistics. Although I've always thought of Warner as a system quarterback, he matched his career numbers this season, and he has actually performed quite well in the playoffs, leading the Rams to the Super Bowl twice and winning once. Delhomme, for his part, transforms into a superstar in the playoffs. Apart from a 3-interception performance against Seattle in 2006, he has been scintillating in the postseason, including 323 yards and 3 TDs against the Patriots in the Super Bowl. It's only a 7 game sample size, so perhaps Delhomme is not really as good as his numbers. But given that he had a strong regular season this year, he may well prove to be the quarterback that can lead the Panthers to a Super Bowl victory.

Philadelphia at NY Giants

Donovan McNabb - 2008: 6.4 AYPA; Career: 6.32 AYPA; Postseason: 5.60 AYPA
Eli Manning - 2008: 6.3 AYPA; Career: 5.37 AYPA; Postseason: 6.01 AYPA

This is a matchup that shows why it is important to look at playoff numbers and not just regular season numbers. McNabb has been a strong regular season performer throughout his career and his 6.32 figure is very good given the number of seasons he has played. Manning's career figures are artificially lowered due to his awful rookie season, but even his best season is an average season for McNabb. In the playoffs, however, McNabb gets worse while Manning gets better. Although Manning is not and will never be a superstar, he proved last year that he is an elite game manager who can raise his game in the playoffs. Thus, I look for Manning's cool head to win this one for the Giants, although we will see if he can match Delhomme in the NFC Championship Game.