Wednesday, October 18, 2006

Expectations Set Too High

We all knew Dusty Baker had to go. Though injuries have battered this team's performance over the past few seasons, Baker has been absolutely incapable of salvaging a team that never seems to have a Plan B. Since turning around the team in 2003 (when he then proceeded to let the team implode in the playoffs), Baker has idly stood by as his team won 20 less games than they did two years ago.

But enough about the past, clearly today's focus is on the future. While America blatantly ignores the NLCS (ratings have continued to drop despite having a team from the largest media market in the country and the other in one of the most baseball dedicated cities) Lou Piniella's peculiar decision to return to the dugout has temporarily captured the spotlight.

Frankly I don't understand Piniella's decision at all. Sure, he pulled a struggling Mariners team out of the depths of sub-.500 but that was an entirely different team. The Cubs don't have a bevy of prospects or significant financial freedom to lean upon should things go awry (and they probably will).

Despite playing in a major city the Cubs are incredibly restricted financially because of their home field. Wrigley field is the 2nd smallest and 2nd oldest park, and despite recent renovations it still has very few luxury box seats (the main source of income from ticket sales). Considering all these factors and that the Cubs already have the 7th highest payroll in the MLB, they don't have much wiggle room. Furthermore, they will not be able to get away with paying Prior and Zambrano $10 million a year combined. Zambrano and Prior are both eligible for arbitration again this season and Zambrano will be a free agent in a year, Prior in 2.

Derek Lee will be returning, but nobody can attempt to estimate the range of numbers he will produce in 200 and I'm sure Piniella's zen-like patience and well natured attitude will prevent any additional problems should Lee, or any other injury recovering player, not return at full strength. (Insert extreme sarcasm here)

I apologize for turning this analysis of Piniella's decision into a rant on the Cubs' problems, but that's just the atmosphere that Lou will be entering into. The 3-year contract was smart from both perspectives considering Lou's necessity to win now and he will undoubtedly turn sour if the team and management don't play along the lines that he sees fit.

I never understood players rallying behind managers who mocked and berated them, but maybe that's what the Cubs need. Maybe the fans' passion hasn't been fully transferred into the hearts of the players. Maybe the Cubs rebound to .500 record, I just don't see it happening. Players may respond to intimidation but injuries and the front office certainly don't.

No comments: