Sunday, November 19, 2006

The Top 25, Week 12

1. Ohio State 12 0
2. USC 9 1
3. Florida 10 1
4. Michigan 11 1
5. Arkansas 10 1
6. Notre Dame 10 1
7. Louisville 9 1
8. West Virginia 9 1
9. Wisconsin 11 1
10. Virginia Tech
9 2
11. Oklahoma 9 2
12. LSU 9 2
13. Boise State 11 0
14. Boston College
9 2
15. Texas 9 2
16. BYU 9 2
17. Rutgers 9 1
18. Auburn 10 2
19. Georgia Tech 9 2
20. Tennessee 8 3
21. California 8 3
22. Hawaii 9 2
23. Wake Forest 9 2
24. Clemson 8 3
25. Nebraska 8 3

Finally, the national championship picture begins to clarify itself. It's down to USC and Florida, hopefully, since even if I don't think either team will beat Ohio State, they may hold their own, unlike Notre Dame or Arkansas. I think Michigan is still the second best team in the country, but I will drop them to #4 to make room for other championship contenders. USC ranks over Florida right now with an impressive beatdown of Cal. However, if both teams win out, one of them is going to rightfully feel gypped.
Notre Dame ranks sixth, because I don't really consider them to be a strong championship contender. Their biggest wins are against Georgia Tech and Penn State, which aren't much to write home about given the profiles of the other contenders. Even Arkansas has blowout wins over Auburn and Tennessee. They nearly lost to mediocre teams in Michigan State and UCLA and were exposed, to say the least, by Michigan. Even if Notre Dame knocks off USC, I don't see how you could rank them above a team with the same record who beat them 47-21. I have a lot of qualms about Arkansas too, whose 50-14 loss to USC may not concern a lot of analysts, but concerns me. What teams have walked away from a season-opening blowout loss of that magnitude and gone on to be legit national championship contenders? Arkansas actually has more of a shot than Notre Dame, as if they beat LSU and Florida, and Notre Dame beats USC, they could be ranked ahead of USC, given that they would at least have a better win-loss record. But would the pollsters give them the bid over Notre Dame in that scenario? Notre Dame really should have no better shot at the title than 11-1 Wisconsin, who at least gave Michigan more of a game than the Fighting Irish. Alright, I exaggerate a little bit, given Wisconsin's soft non-conference schedule. But I certainly feel that Notre Dame is much closer in quality to Wisconsin than it is to Ohio State or Michigan.
As for the rest of my poll, I want to give props to Virginia Tech and Oklahoma, who rank among the hottest teams in college football, yet are being slightly ignored due to the hubbub over Ohio State-Michigan and the title picture in general. Virginia Tech has blown out Clemson (24-7) and Wake Forest (27-6), and Oklahoma rides a 6-game winning streak. I rank Oklahoma ahead of Texas despite the head-to-head result between the teams, as this poll is more of a power poll anyways.
Further credit to BYU and Hawaii, who are absolutely steamrolling the Mountain West and WAC respectively. BYU is certainly a legit team, as Boston College will attest to (30-23 overtime victors).

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