Breaking Down the Mega-Deal

The MLB off-season has had only one significant deal so far so let's take a look at what went down. For those not hitting the refresh tab of espn.com every 10 seconds, here are the players that were swapped:

Tigers receive: Miguel Cabrera, Dontrelle Willis
Marlins receive: Andrew Miller, Cameron Maybin, Mike Rabelo, Eulogio De la Cruz, Dallas Trahern, Burke Badenhop

Some of these name may be unfamiliar so a player by player breakdown would be nice to get an accurate sense of the value being exchanged.

Miguel Cabrera - One of the best hitters in the game at the youthful age of 24; probably one of the most coveted offensive weapons in the game.

Dontrelle Willis - Willis was considered a #1 starter in 2005 but since then has plummeted to the level of bottom of the rotation role on an AL squad. His WHIP continues to increase, his strikeout rate continues to fall, and his splits are becoming increasingly troubling. Over Willis' career right-handed batters are hitting .278 while lefties only .202, but last year those numbers spread further to .320 and .123 respectively. Statistically savvy managers can stack their lineups against Willis to take advantage of his weakness against righties. Chances of him rebounding are possible given his age, but the complexity of his windup and his moving to the better league present severe obstacles.

Andrew Miller - Miller is a top-notch pitching prospect who excelled in his 2007 stints in the minors. Miller had no business being in the majors last year, he tore up AA but struggled in his two AAA starts and had less than a year's experience in the Tigers' system. Despite his difficulties at the major league level, he still projects as a mid-to-front end of the rotation starter who is probably a year away from being an impact player.

Cameron Maybin - Maybin had played in six AA games when the Tigers gave him the starting job after they gave Craig Monroe to the Cubs. Another highly talented player who's still raw, Maybin has five tools that should be on display two years down the road. To say the Tigers rushed him through the system is an understatement; his value will grow tremendously if given the time to learn the ropes in the minors.

Mike Rabelo - A cheap backup quality catcher with experience working with young arms.

Eulogio De la Cruz - A fireballer who's worked both as a starter and a reliever. He's erratic and lacks a strong secondary pitch but still has a good shot of finding a role as a 7th-inning reliever or even a setup man.

Dallas Trahern - A mediocre sinkerballer who doesn't get a whole lot of strikeouts but keeps the ball on the ground. Chien-Ming Wang is perfecting the art of the one-pitch sinkerballer and while Trahern is not near Wang's quality, the development of a secondary pitch should let him sneak into the rotation at some point.

Burke Badenhop - Badenhop has dominated A ball and made three impressive starts in AA last year but at the age of 24 and a fastball that barely hits 91 mph his chances are limited. He's still been pitching as a starter, so the conversion to a reliever may allow for him to crack a major league roster eventually.

The Marlins got good value for Miggy and Willis: Two A-quality prospects, two B-quality prospects, a backup catcher, and an additional minor league arm. Presuming the Marlins are patient with Miller and Maybin, they should get a strong return on their investment.

The Tigers now hold one of the most potent offenses in the majors but are taking a big risk on Willis. While Cabrera's and Willis' ages make this deal not a simple future-for-present success swap, it's clear this organization is going to do all it can to win with its current crew--especially after their embarrassing loss in the World Series two years ago.

I'd feel comfortable making this deal from either end, though I think given Willis' level of risk, I would've preferred to have made this deal without having to give up more to include him. Then again, the Marlins may very well have been offering him at a discount rate given the growing speculations about his abilities. The Tigers immediately become a power-house in the AL while the Marlins have set themselves up for another World Series run two or three years down the road.