The Mitchell Report (Pre-Release)

The essential purpose of this post is to allow me to say "I told you [insert name here] was using steroids" to everyone I know. While I hold this opinions strongly take into account that the beliefs disclosed in this article are based on previous data and testimony and in no way represent condemning evidence proving these players' guilt.

That being said, whose names can we possibly expect to see in the Mitchell Report?

To start: Brian Roberts, Jay Gibbons, Miguel Tejada and additional players from the 2004 Baltimore Orioles. This team has the unique distinction of having three confirmed steroid users for an entire season: Rafael Palmeiro, David Segui, and Jason Grimsley. Additionally, Grimsley explicitly named Roberts, Gibbons, and Tejada in his interrogation with federal investigators. There are major statistical anomalies in Roberts' career including his slugging percentage jumping 139 points from 2004 to 2005 and his hitting as many home runs in his first 295 at-bats in 2005 as he had in his previous 1502 at-bats before the 2005 season. While the other two players don't have such eye-raising discrepancies in their performances, I see no reason why Grimsley would have motivation to falsely accuse his former teammates.

Given the high degree of usage within this clubhouse it also wouldn't surprise me to see other players from this team listed. Javy Lopez and Melvin Mora are suspicions of mine given abnormally strong seasons during their stint with Orioles in this time period. Mora went from a career .249/.320/.388 hitter in 1438 at-bats to .331/.407/.539 hitter from 2004-2005 at the not so youthful age of 31. Lopez hit a miraculous 43 home runs (having hit 25 HRs or more only once before in his career) at the age of 32 for the Braves before coming to the Orioles the following year. Lopez' slugging percentage in his last season was 164 points higher than his previous career high.

As we saw with Palmeiro though, steroid use can alter performance in other facets or not at all. A high number of low-key players are likely to be exposed in the report; players who were barely making the cut and resorted to steroids but failed to improve significantly. Others may have prolonged their careers without substantially heightening their skills. This type of usage to extend one's career is suspected by a minority of fans--including myself--to have been exhibited by Roger Clemens.

The belief is that there is a conspiracy behind Clemens' delayed start to the 2006 season and was not due to his questioning retirement. Rather, some believe there was 50-day steroid suspension kept quiet by Major League Baseball. Clemens did sign his contract with the Astros 54 games into their season and if he had been caught, MLB could ill afford to allow such news to be leaked considering Clemens' near immortal status. This theory is based purely on speculation and coincidences that merely lack satisfying explanations (much like Jordan's departure from basketball after in 1993).

Stronger evidence lies in Clemens' remarkable ability to remain competitive at such an old age. His Cy Young worthy seasons from 2004-2006 may be attributable to his incredible work ethic, his relocation to the weakest division in baseball, or possibly cheating via steroids. The final corroborating fact however lies once again in the testimony of Jason Grimsley, who named Clemens in his report. Collectively, the circumstantial evidence and Grimsley's statement make for a compelling case for Clemens' steroid use.

I'm not calling for the damning of these players but merely voicing my speculations as to what I expect from the Mitchell Report on Thursday. Chances are there will few, if any, major players (pun not intended) exposed, but the report may very well provide a trail of drug usage across the league. The release of these names will hopefully give the public an idea of just how rampant this problem was and still is today.