2009 Draft Grades, Eastern Conference

In a rare burst of timely and topical coverage for this blog, here are grades for last night's draft, starting with the Eastern Conference. Grades are given not only on who was selected, but also who they passed over, and how the player selected fits in with their team. And to add something unique to this blog, I will use my similarity scores system to help evaluate prospects.

The similarity scores, are as always, a work in progress, but I'm pleased with the results. I have a database of NBA players' career college numbers from the 1991 draft to last year (I started with 1991 to only include players who had the 3 point line throughout their college career). I then make standardized comparisons across age, height, weight and the major statistical categories, similar to the method once in use at basketball-reference.com. The numbers aren't particularly scientific, so should be interpreted relative to each other. Over 900 is a very strong comparison, under 850 is a weaker one.

Atlanta Hawks
Selected: #19 - G Jeff Teague, Wake Forest
Grade: B

Similar to:
Marcus Banks (854)
Tyronn Lue (851)
Keyon Dooling (846)
Luis Flores (843)
Chauncey Billups (839)

Teague's comparables look bad at first. He is most similar to a set of undersized combo guards who could never quite play the point in the league. Teague will likely have this same issue. On the bright side, his fifth-best comp is Chauncey Billups. Let's compare their sophomore seasons.

Billups: 32.7 min, 19.1 pts, 4.9 rebs, 4.8 asts, 2.9 to, .413 FG, .401 3P
Teague: 32.0 min, 18.8 pts, 3.3 rebs, 3.5 asts, 3.4 to, .485 FG, .441 3P

Teague was actually the superior scorer if you factor in shooting percentages. But Billups trumps him in every other regard and most significantly had a far superior assist-turnover ratio. It is likely that Teague will not be able to play point like Billups and thus will be relegated to a scoring role off the bench. Still, not a bad pickup at #19. His ability to shoot and drive ought to make him better than his other comps.

Boston Celtics
Selected: #58 - G Lester Hudson, Tennessee-Martin
Draft Grade: B

Similar to:
Tony Delk (829)
Todd Day (796)
Alphonso Ford (789)
James Collins (785)
Juan Dixon (781)


Not really much to say here. I did grab Hudson as a late first-round sleeper in our mock draft, but as a 6'1" 24 year old shooting guard from a small conference (OVC represent!), I imagine he doesn't have much of a future in the league. A fine pick at #58, for whatever it's worth.

Charlotte Bobcats
Selected: #12 - G Gerald Henderson, Duke;
#40 - F Derrick Brown, Xavier
Draft Grade: C+

Henderson - similar to:

Cedric Henderson (897)
Dave Johnson (895)
Willie Green (895)
Michael Finley (890)
Marcus Williams (888)

This isn't a very promising list of similar players for Henderson. Michael Finley would be the best bet, but he was much better in the pros than in college, so I wouldn't rely on that similarity. Henderson's 9th best comp is Doug Christie, and that seems like about his high point to me - a solid defensive guard who can provide enough offense to start. I see him more as a bench stopper so #12 may have been a reach.

Brown - similar to:

Mark Hendrickson (895)
James Augustine (875)
Bobby Jones (872)
Anthony Miller (860)
Matt Steigenga (860)

Just below this list is Richard Jefferson, but clearly Brown's similarity scores don't suggest he will be a second-round gem for Charlotte.

Chicago Bulls
Selected: #16 - F James Johnson
#26 - F Taj Gibson
Grade: C-

Perhaps this grade is too harsh, but I was mad when the Bulls selected James Johnson over Blair and infuriated when they selected Gibson. Oh well, let's look at the comps.

James Johnson:

Bison Dele (876)
Brian Cook (866)
Nick Collison (864)
Kirk Haston (863)
Marcus Haislip (860)

I'm optimistic he can be a Nick Collison type player but this isn't a very inspiring group. Johnson just isn't that exciting of a prospect to me.

Taj Gibson:

Stephane Lasme (881)
Eric Mobley (877)
Kenyon Martin (874)
Anthony Miller (866)
Mark Pope (859)

The Kenyon Martin comparison is intriguing, but Gibson never had a season like Martin's senior year where he averaged 18.9 pts, 9.7 rebs, and 3.5 blks on .568 shooting. Gibson's numbers from this year look comparable but he only averaged 14.3 pts and played 4 more minutes per game. They should have taken Blair.

Cleveland Cavaliers
Selected: #30 - G Christian Eyenga
#46 - F Danny Green
#57 - F Emir Preldzic
Grade: A-
I don't know much about Eyenga or Preldzic, but at the point in the draft where they were taken, they're low risks. What about Danny Green?

Similar to:

JR Giddens (897)
Wesley Person (896)
Tayshaun Prince (892)
Brandon Rush (887)
Rodney Carney (882)

I really think Green can be as valuable in the NBA as Gerald Henderson. Maybe Henderson has more offensive potential but Green could be a defensive stopper on the wing and can hit the 3. A better version of Bruce Bowen perhaps and a great pickup in round 2.

Detroit Pistons
Selected: #15 - F Austin Daye
#35 - F DaJuan Summers
#39 - F Jonas Jerebko
Grade: B+

Austin Daye:

Charlie Villanueva (856)
Jumaine Jones (843)
Robert Horry (842)
Lamar Odom (835)
Josh Childress (830)

I have mixed feelings about Daye. On the one hand, his statistical profile has a lot of good indicators. He's 6'10", gets a lot of blocks and steals and shot above 40% from 3. His most similar players also paint a promising picture. On the other hand, he played worse on a per-minute basis as a sophomore than as a freshman, is super skinny, and failed to take over games the way his talent suggests he could. A lot of draft analysts have discussed Earl Clark by saying that he would have a frustrating career a la Lamar Odom or Tim Thomas. I don't think Clark is in Odom's league, but Daye might well be (and Odom is his 4th best comp!). Not a bad risk at #15, overall.

DaJuan Summers:

Austin Croshere (886)
Chris Crawford (882)
Walt Williams (881)
Matt Barnes (879)
Chris Jefferies (877)

I was never high on Summers, but he looks surprisingly decent here, at least for a 2nd round pick.

Indiana Pacers
Selected: #13 - F Tyler Hansbrough
#52 - G A.J. Price
Grade: B

Tyler Hansbrough:

Lee Nailon (857)
Darius Songaila (857)
Leon Powe (851)
Carl Landry (850)
Adam Keefe (844)

Despite his reputation as a player who gives 100%, Hansbrough is not a great rebounder and an awful shotblocker. These are reminders that he probably does have some serious athletic limitations. That said, his comparable players look surprisingly solid. I don't see him as more than a strong bench player, but in this draft that's not a terrible thing to get at #13.

A.J. Price

Jerome Allen (922)
Mateen Cleaves (899)
Travis Best (892)
Luke Ridnour (892)
Erick Barkley (892)

Not all that promising, although a career like Best or Ridnour's would be great this late in the draft. I doubt the Pacers are expecting much from Price anyways.

Miami Heat
Selected: #42 - G Patrick Beverley
Grade: B+

Similar to:
Daniel Gibson (896)
Jordan Farmar (895)
Kenny Satterfield (880)
Mo Williams (863)
Raymond Felton (852)

Since Beverley spent a year playing in Ukraine, these similarity scores reflect his comparables had he been drafted a year ago. I'm skeptical that he's really this good considering he's 6'1", not a good passer, and dropped off from his freshman to his sophomore year at Arkansas. That said, he is great as a second round pick because of his potential to be a top combo guard off the bench.

Milwaukee Bucks
Selected: #10 - G Brandon Jennings
#41 - G Jodie Meeks
Grade: C+

Perhaps #10 is late enough to take a risk on Jennings, but he really struggled in the Euroleague, shooting under 40% and failing to make an impact as a passer. I'm always skeptical with wait and see picks, because good players are usually good right away. If any position is an exception, though, it's point guard, so I'm willing to give the Bucks some benefit of the doubt. Hugh vehemently disagrees with my willingness to give the Bucks any credit, citing how many actual PGs ("you know... ones who actually get assists") were still on the board.

As for Jodie Meeks:

JJ Redick (917)
Allan Houston (905)
Steve Nash (890)
OJ Mayo (890)
Terry Dehere (887)

Hey, this guy looks pretty good. Redick is the best comp in my mind (and in the system) - high scoring, good shooting, few contributions anywhere else. The Nash comp doesn't hold water but Nash wasn't as great a passer in college as in the pros, I suppose. I will say that there was probably little to distinguish Meeks from Redick besides hype. But considering that Redick is no more than a bench player for the Magic, it's hard to get too upset about Meeks falling to the second round.

New Jersey Nets
Selected: #11 - F Terrence Williams
Grade: B

Mardy Collins (872)
Scott Burrell (868)
Aaron McKie (853)
Andre Iguodala (830)
Jeryl Sasser (825)

His comps are a mixed bag, but the Nets would have to be heartened by the Andre Iguodala comparison. Let's take a closer look and add Jeryl Sasser, another mid-first-round pick who was an unequivocal bust.

Iguodala (as a sophomore): 32.1 min, 12.9 pts, 8.4 rebs, 4.9 asts, .450 FG, .315 3P, .788 FT
Williams: 34.2 min, 12.5 pts, 8.6 rebs, 5.0 asts, .431 FG, .385 3P, .581 FT
Sasser: 34.9 min, 17.0 pts, 8.3 rebs, 4.2 asts, .394 FG, .287 3P, .718 FT

Right away we can see that Williams is not as much of an offensive liability that Sasser was (although he was his first two seasons). This comparison even puts him on the same ground as Iguodala. The difference is that Iguodala was only a sophomore. The 2 year difference may be a big one. Even so, I like the versatility of Williams' game enough to think that this was a nice pick at #11, even if he's not as good as Iguodala.

New York Knicks
Selected: #8 - F Jordan Hill
#29 - G Toney Douglas
Grade: D

Hill:

Bison Dele (930)
Anthony Avent (922)
Malcolm Mackey (921)
Matt Fish (907)
Channing Frye (896)

Suffice it to say that I don't think much of Hill's prospects. His numbers are wholly unremarkable (witness the high similarity scores) and his similar players never did much in the NBA. The Knicks got hit hard by not landing Stephen Curry.

Douglas:

Vonteego Cummings (904)
Cuttino Mobley (902)
Miles Simon (884)
Randy Foye (883)
Luis Flores (879)

Douglas will hope to have a career like Mobley, who was also a later pick in the draft.

Philadelphia 76ers
Selected: #17 - G Jrue Holiday
Grade: A-

Similar to:

Russell Westbrook (829)
Stephon Marbury (821)
Delonte West (817)
Derrick Rose (815)
Will Avery (807)

At #17, Holiday has great value. I'm not sure how much to read into his similarity scores, considering that the numbers are relatively low and there aren't that many young guards who have been drafted in the first round. Still, it's hard not to see his comp list as a ringing endorsement, as long as we ignore Will Avery.

Toronto Raptors
Selected: #9 - F DeMar DeRozan
Grade: C

Similar to:

Matt Steigenga (875)
Richard Jefferson (869)
Julian Wright (860)
Jeff Nordgaard (849)
Matt Barnes (846)

Hopefully it's clear why I'm skeptical DeRozan will be any good. He doesn't have 3-point range, is a poor passer, and didn't even get a whole lot of steals and blocks, despite his great athleticism. On the plus side, he did come on late in the year as a scorer, so it's possible his numbers underrate him. His best hope is Richard Jefferson, who had a similarly underwhelming college career, but blossomed in the NBA as a 20 ppg scorer.