NBA Draft Grades, Western Conference

And now the West!

Dallas Mavericks

Selected: G Rodrique Beaubois, G Nick Calathes, F Ahmad Nivins
Grade: A

Calathes:

Derrick Rose (868)
Javaris Crittenton (855)
Devin Harris (840)
Mike Bibby (836)
Derek Anderson (836)

Nick Calathes should provide a very interesting test in the cliched 'stats vs. scouts' debate. His comps may seem surprising but he was very similar to this group in terms of scoring, passing, rebounding, etc... He is taller than these players, and probably not as athletic, but otherwise, comes up as surprisingly similar. He's versatile, can shoot, and can pass. I think he's a huge steal at #45, so hopefully he won't get stashed away in Greece and never see the NBA.

Nivins:

Maceo Baston (893)
Jason Lawson (882)
Walter Sharpe (860)
Etan Thomas (856)
Don Reid (853)

Nivins' best hope is to play an Etan Thomas-type role off the bench.

Denver Nuggets
Selected: G Ty Lawson
Grade: A

Similar to:

Jameer Nelson (855)
Antonio Daniels (820)
Steve Francis (815)
Jarrett Jack (812)
Marcus Banks (812)

Another player who Hugh and I loved much more than his draft position would indicate. Yeah he's short, but he had a close to perfect season offensively (3.5 ast/to ratio and shot .532 from the field and .472 from 3, offensive rating of 134) and was the key reason that North Carolina won the championship. I'd like to see him get a chance to start right away, but I think he'll immediately be able to take Anthony Carter's spot as the backup for Billups in Denver's rotation. His comps speak well to his talents, although he is a fairly unique player.

Golden State Warriors
Selected: G Stephen Curry
Grade: A-

Similar to:

Alphonso Ford (855)
Jay Williams (849)
Rashad McCants (826)
Rodney Stuckey (824)
Tony Delk (821)

Curry's list of comparable players is good, not great. Ford played in an even smaller conference than Davidson, so I wouldn't fear that comparison too much. Everyone else is solid (or at least Williams likely would have been), but the career of McCants or Delk would be disappointing for Curry. He's not all that comparable to these players, so I think he can surpass them. I don't see Curry as a superstar but I think he will be a very good player, and will thrive in the Warriors' uptempo system.

Houston Rockets
Selected: G Jermaine Taylor, G Sergio Llull, F Chase Budinger
Grade: B+

Taylor:

Rashad McCants (895)
Courtney Lee (886)
Kareem Rush (874)
Keith Bogans (873)
Shawn Respert (872)

Based on this list, Taylor looks strictly like a scorer off the bench, but that's fine with a round 2 pick.

Budinger:

Michael Finley (914)
Jim Jackson (904)
Keith Bogans (895)
Quincy Lewis (893)
Jarvis Hayes (892)

Hard to know what to make of these comps. Some best-case scenarios (Finley, Jackson) and some worst-case (Bogans, Lewis, Hayes). I suspect he'll be more like the latter 3 than the first 2 but the Rockets won't mind using a second-round pick to find out.

Los Angeles Clippers
Selected: F Blake Griffin
Grade: A

Similar to:

Zach Randolph (893)
Elton Brand (870)
Kevin Love (868)
Carlos Boozer (846)
Marreese Speights (836)

As expected, a dynamic list of comps for Blake Griffin. Ironically, his future teammate tops his list. Zach Randolph is a headcase, but does put up great scoring and rebounding numbers. Griffin will provide at least his production with better shooting percentages, defense and leadership. A slam-dunk #1 pick for the Clippers. And no, I don't believe they're cursed, only severely mismanaged.

Los Angeles Lakers
Selected: F Chinemelu Elonu
Grade: B-

Similar to:

DeAndre Jordan (880)
Hilton Armstrong (861)
James Augustine (860)
Amal McCaskill (854)
Erick Dampier (847)

Elonu probably won't ever make the league, but no one expects much from the #59 pick anyways.

Memphis Grizzlies
Selected: C Hasheem Thabeet, F DeMarre Carroll, F Sam Young
Grade: D

Thabeet:

Etan Thomas (821)
Brendan Haywood (795)
Alvin Jones (789)
Dikembe Mutombo (773)
Jim McIlvaine (771)

Thabeet isn't really all that similar to anyone, besides Etan Thomas. I'm not sure whether this is a good thing or not. It could mean that he is a player who will be uniquely talented or uniquely unfit for the NBA. My personal take is that although he is a good shotblocker, he is not a Mutombo-level defender. And he would have to be to justify the #2 pick considering his lack of scoring ability. I think the Grizzlies will regret taking Thabeet over Rubio.

Carroll:

Doug Edwards (907)
Jeff Nordgaard (903)
Bryon Russell (895)
Craig Smith (891)
Ryan Gomes (881)

The late first round may still have been early for Carroll, if Craig Smith and Ryan Gomes are his upside. I like his chances of reaching that level, though.

Young:

Chris Mills (904)
Ed O'Bannon (894)
Chris King (892)
Eric Piatkowski (882)
Josh Howard (881)

I was never very excited about Sam Young, considering he's already 24, but the Josh Howard comparison does intrigue me. A senior season comparison:

Howard: 32.3 min, 19.5 pts, 8.3 rbs, 1.9 asts, 2.1 stl, 1.6 blks, .373 3P
Young: 31.8 min, 19.2 pts, 6.3 rbs, 1.1 asts, 1.0 stl, 0.8 blks, .372 3P

It's close, but Howard is the better rebounder, and significantly, accumulated a lot more steals and blocks, suggesting superior athleticism. He was also a year younger. I'm guessing Young winds up closer to Ed O'Bannon, but I wouldn't mind being wrong.

Minnesota Timberwolves
Selected: G Ricky Rubio, G Jonny Flynn, G Wayne Ellington, F Henk Norel
Grade: C

I hate to give them such a low grade after stealing Rubio at #5, but taking another pure point guard at #6 was baffling. I can only hope that David Kahn was bluffing when he said that Rubio and Flynn can play together in the backcourt. I'm not sure Stephen Curry can guard SGs either but he would be a better backcourt mate for Rubio than Flynn. At least they traded Ty Lawson and Nick Calathes!

My take on Rubio is that at the very least he will be a great passer and ball thief, as well as a solid rebounder. He does have serious scoring and shooting issues, but he is also still only 18, and shooting is the easiest thing for a player to fix. Point guards generally have the longest development curves and the fact that he was so successful as a professional at ages 17 and 18 makes him the #2 prospect in the draft in my mind.

Players similar to Flynn:

Mike Bibby (879)
Jameer Nelson (854)
Antonio Daniels (852)
Rajon Rondo (848)
Chris Paul (846)

I think point guards are tough to predict, but this group is nothing but promising for Flynn. He is young and can pass, so the Wolves can hope the jump shot comes later.

Ellington:

Voshon Lenard (905)
Charles Smith (900)
James Collins (891)
Khalid Reeves (880)
Delonte West (877)

It's safe to say that Ellington won't be more than a role player.

New Orleans Hornets
Selected: G Darren Collison, G Marcus Thornton
Grade: B

Collison:

Erick Barkley (896)
Jason Terry (894)
Chris Duhon (860)
Jameer Nelson (855)
Adonis Jordan (854)

Collison's comps are all over the place. I see him more as a solid backup, so Chris Duhon seems like a good bet.

Thornton:

Rashad McCants (902)
Courtney Lee (900)
Bob Sura (889)
Charles Smith (883)
Voshon Lenard (878)

Nothing spectacular, but all of these players had roles in the league. A solid second round pick.

Oklahoma City Thunder
Selected: G James Harden, C B.J. Mullens, G Robert Vaden
Grade: A-

Harden:

Mike Miller (876)
Baron Davis (843)
Bob Sura (819)
Derrick Rose (818)
Jared Dudley (816)

I like Harden and don't even mind that the Thunder took him over Rubio. He's a pretty unique player (witness Derrick Rose as his fourth-best comp) but I think he can be even better than Mike Miller. I see the Thunder making a leap towards 40 wins this year, with Harden playing an immediate role.

Mullens:

DeAndre Jordan (847)
Roy Hibbert (829)
Dan McClintock (825)
Brendan Haywood (824)
Joel Przybilla (816)

It seems apt that Mullens' top comp is DeAndre Jordan, another disappointing freshman center who slid 20+ spots from where he would have gone 15 years ago. Jordan did have a promising rookie year, and the only outright bust on this list is McClintock. I like Mullens emerging as a solid rotation center, a la Przybilla, down the line, but the Thunder will have to be patient.

Vaden:

Randy Foye (869)
Cuonzo Martin (861)
James Collins (859)
Brandon Rush (847)
Cuttino Mobley (835)

Vaden has promise as a backup SG as long as he doesn't have too many games like this one.

Phoenix Suns
Selected: F Earl Clark, F Taylor Griffin
Grade: D+

Clark:

Robert Horry (926)
Terence Morris (895)
Dominic McGuire (892)
LeRon Ellis (880)
Jerome Moiso (864)

This list lends credence to my theory that Clark is not a player failing to live up to great talent, but simply a player who's not really all that talented in the first place. If he can develop a better jump shot, he could have an Horry-type career. If not, he may well wash out of the NBA.

Griffin:

Chris Owens (862)
Bryon Russell (861)
A.J. Bramlett (859)
Dickey Simpkins (858)
Matt Barnes (854)

I realize it's only a second-round pick, but there's something humiliating about how the Suns keep drafting the less-talented brother. To be honest, I don't think there's any way Taylor Griffin would have been drafted if not for Blake. 9.6 points and 5.8 rebounds a game is not going to get it done on the NBA level.

Portland Trail Blazers
Selected: F Victor Claver, F Jeff Pendergraph, F Dante Cunningham, G Patrick Mills
Grade: C

For once, I felt like Kevin Pritchard was just making deals for the sake of making deals. He got four draft picks, but how many will be on the team next year? I would say two at most.

Pendergraph:

Malcolm Mackey (917)
Bison Dele (907)
Shawnelle Scott (901)
David Lee (900)
Anthony Avent (892)

The David Lee comparison is nice, but on the whole, Pendergraph's comps don't hint at any unseen promise. Shooting 66% from the field was nice though.

Cunningham:

LeRon Ellis (906)
Matt Barnes (901)
J.R. Henderson (894)
Sean Lampley (892)
Luc Richard Mbah a Moute (889)

Well, Cunningham and Villanova were a nice story this year, but I don't see him making much of an impact on the NBA.

Mills:

Jason Terry (878)
B.J. Tyler (864)
Tyronn Lue (861)
Mike Bibby (851)
A.J. Guyton (851)

I was surprised by how far Mills fell, but to tell the truth, his statistics never seemed to match his reputation. That said, two former Arizona stars (Terry and Bibby) turn up here, so he may yet have some potential.

Sacramento Kings
Selected: G Tyreke Evans, F Omri Casspi, F Jon Brockman
Grade: B

Evans:
Michael Redd (898)
Paul Pierce (884)
Tim Thomas (863)
Andre Emmett (861)
Ricky Davis (860)

You have to like the comparisons to Redd and Pierce, not so much the comparisons to Thomas and Davis. I'm not sure the Kings should have taken Evans over Rubio, but I still think Evans will be a pretty good player. His flaws are efficiency and shot selection, which are the flaws you want a flawed freshman prospect to have, because they're the most easily correctible. The comps to Tim Thomas and Ricky Davis are a reminder of what happens to a player that never corrects those flaws.

San Antonio Spurs
Selected: F DeJuan Blair, G Jack McClinton, G Nando de Colo
Grade: A

Blair:

Zach Randolph (867)
Sean May (838)
Paul Millsap (831)
Donnell Harvey (815)
Wayne Simien (809)

Well, Blair's comps do say more bench power forward than stud, like Blake Griffin. Then again, May and Millsap have been pretty productive on a per-minute basis, and the numbers here are very low, speaking to Blair's uniqueness. In short, his plummet to 37 was a travesty, ACLs or no ACLs, and the Spurs are looking a lot stronger than they did a week ago.

McClinton:

Dan Dickau (871)
Will Solomon (862)
Salim Stoudamire (848)
Lionel Chalmers (832)
Bryce Drew (827)

McClinton is a great shooter, but so was Salim Stoudamire, and that wasn't enough for him to stick in the league. McClinton will take the same route.

Utah Jazz
Selected: G Eric Maynor, F Goran Suton
Grade: C+

Maynor:

Terrence Rencher (867)
Luke Ridnour (864)
Elmer Bennett (863)
Jeff McInnis (860)
Chris Smith (853)

It's hard not to like Maynor if you saw him hit the game winning shot against Duke in the NCAA Tournament two years ago. But his numbers don't look as good when you remember that they were put up against small college competition. I'm a little more optimistic than these comps, but the overall picture is not a great one.

Suton:

Mark Pope (875)
A.J. Bramlett (855)
Shawnelle Scott (850)
Jamie Feick (845)
Andrew DeClercq (845)

Not a whole lot to endorse about Suton, much as I admired his performance in the NCAAs.