That being said... the Dodgers organization just got hosed. For the second time in the past three years the Dodgers overpaid for a player that they didn't even need. The Dodgers took enough flak for the Pierre signing (so we'll spare them any more), but the Jones' one may be worse.
Let's first address why Andruw Jones doesn't deserve $18 million. He may only be 30 years old, but he's well beyond his hitting prime. Jones' is an all-or-nothing hitter who consistently strikeouts over 120 times and fails to maintain a decent average. He's a career .263 hitter who doesn't draw walks to compensate for his strikeouts (only once in the last five seasons has he eclipsed a .350 OBP) and hasn't been a threat on the bases for over half a decade. His pitiful .222/.311/.413 season is reminiscent of Jeromy Burnitz' despicable 2002 season for the Mets (.215/.311/.365).While some may balk and my comparison of these two outfielders, their hitting styles and career paths are very much aligned (Burnitz hit rock bottom at age 33, Jones at 30). The swing-hard and hope for the best mentality quickly led to Burnitz' demise and casts a bleak picture of Jones' offensive future.
Here's where someone feeds me the argument that Jones is an 11-time Gold Glove winner and an excellent outfielder. Jones' defensive prowess has been declining since 1999, to the point where he barely retains the title as an "above average" center fielder. Check his Runs above replacement or average players (RAR and RAA). Both have been dropping drastically since 1999, with Jones being the exact equivalent of an average center fielder in 2006.
Defensive statistics are still highly debatable, but despite this qualm Jones fails to be worth $18 million a year.
The second major reason for why this signing is unwarranted is the Dodgers' proficient amount of young outfield talent. With Pierre now locked in center and Luis Gonzalez becoming a free agent, Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp were projected to be the two corner outfielders for the Dodgers. Each is still on their basic pre-arbitration contracts and each were productive in their sophomore seasons. Jones' presence will take more AB's away from these young hitters without adding any significant production beyond what Ethier and Kemp were providing. Unless the Dodgers are able to turn Ethier for some quality prospects or players (and even then, you're paying Jones $17.5 million more than you would be Ethier) this signing makes no sense given the team's depth chart.
Don't be surprised to see more overspending in the coming weeks. In certain circumstances, it's alright to overpay if your needs are great enough (ie: the White Sox' need for a CF), but in the Dodgers' case, this decision is just inexcusable.
3 comments:
Easy on Jones. I agree that the numbers usually don't lie, but I'd like to see what his experience gets them if they make the post season (1995??????). Also, I think any team that wanted him had a right to ask not to negotiate his contract with Boras and totally get him for 2 or 3 million on a short term deal. He makes sense for two years at that price because of how the dodgers collapsed on offense last year and because they have a number of young players. he bridges the gap between the old guard on the team (kent) and the young ones that caused so much tension last year. finally, you have to remember that finding a cf with pop is important in the minus dh league.
so I lament the price but id like to see if he just needs a change of pace.
yeah, word, this signing epitomizes the dodgers. overpaying for overrated players. but all things said, two years isnt a bad deal--gives them time to see if andruw really is over the hill (although why would they want to when they have kemp and ethier). also, should mention that he might not be the best influence for a young outfielders corps. hes cocky as shit--and when you combine him with jeff kent youre pretty much asking for your youngns to be angry narcisitic douches....
anyway, maybe that judgment is unfair, but more importantly the mets apparently might swing ollie perez, mulvey, and car-go in a deal for santana. i like the sound of that.
"Jones' $18.1 million average salary trails only those of the Yankees' Alex Rodriguez ($27.5 million), Boston's Manny Ramirez ($20 million), the Yankees' Derek Jeter ($18.9 million), and the Cubs' Carlos Zambrano ($18.3 million)." - ESPN.com
This was an awful signing plain and simple. I cannot believe any general manager would pay this salary for such a player. Jones is making more than Torii Hunter, a much better all around player. Why didn't the Dodgers go after Hunter? More surprising/outraegeous, why didn't the Dodgers try to sign Aaron Rowand, a cheaper and seemingly better option. For the sake of Dodger fans and Joe Torre, I hope Jones does alright in LA, but I am not holding my breath. Cheers to Boras for always getting his client that amount of money that keeps people like us dumbfounded every time.
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