NBA MOCK DRAFT 2008

Welcome to our 2008 NBA Mock Draft.

A couple comments should be made before we get started. Our selections are based on what Jeremiah and I believe teams should do, not what they will do. This mock draft is about evaluating talent and deciding how each team should approach improving their roster based on what's available. Jeremiah and I alternate picks, with myself assigned to the odd ones and Jeremiah the even. It's not a competition, merely a way to make it interactive for both of us and allow multiple approaches to drafting (though our methods are rather similar in most circumstances). We also conducted this draft before the debauchery of ESPN's own duo mock draft with Bill Simmons and Chad Ford, but because we are lazy it just took us several days to type up our comments and post it. Finally, constructive criticism and questions are greatly appreciated.

Without further ado... I am on the clock...
1.) Chicago Bulls: Michael Beasley
H: I know the media has been hyping Rose for several weeks now but Beasley's numbers are simply unreal. He can score (30.9 pts/40), get to the line (10 FTA/40), and rebound (14.6 r/40) better than any player in this draft while maintaining efficient percentages (53.2/77.4/37.9). He also fills the Bulls' long need for an interior scorer and with T.J. Ford soon to be on the trading market there are other ways to address Kirk Hinrich's sudden inability to play basketball.
J: Worst case, he puts up stats but isn't a championship-type player. Sure, that would be disappointing, but Rose is no lock to be a franchise player either.

2.) Miami Heat: Derrick Rose
J: Easy pick here. The Heat want Rose, and they get him in our mock draft. I will say that I see him more as a star than a superstar. It's hard for me to see him averaging 10+ assists per game, a la Deron Williams or Chris Paul, nor do I see him averaging 25+ points, like I believe Beasley is capable of doing. That's still a lot of room for him to be very good, and I believe he will develop into a more consistent version of Baron Davis.

3.) Minnesota Timberwolves: Jerryd Bayless
H: I know the Timberwolves are big fans of O.J. Mayo and while I certainly wouldn't scoff at picking him here, I'm a bigger fan of Bayless. I have much more faith in his ability to play PG than Mayo and I like the idea of a dual PG system with him and Foye on the floor at the same time. Bayless also has better penetrating ability than Mayo, getting to the line 3.4 more times per 40 while Mayo settled for 3's a larger percentage of the time.

4.) Seattle Supersonics: Kevin Love
J: If you look closely at the Kevin Love bandwagon, you can see me in the driver's seat, whip outstretched (think horses). He gets a decent number of blocks, some steals, and a whole lot of rebounds, suggesting that he is a better athlete than we are led to believe or he is crafty enough to make up for it. He is a very well-rounded player, who lest we forget, is not necessarily a finished product. He has plenty of time to drop 25 pounds and work on his explosiveness. Don't rule out All-Star berths in his future.
H: I like this pick a lot given that Bayless is off the board and that having two alpha-dog scorers like Durant and Mayo on the floor at the same time might not gel.

5.) Memphis Grizzlies: O.J. Mayo
H: The Grizzlies need a big man but Jeremiah kindly reminded me that I shouldn't reach for a team need when it comes at the cost of crossing a tier. Mayo, Bayless, and Love consist of what I would consider my second tier of players available and reaching for Lopez would be foolish with Mayo still available. Mayo is a dynamic scorer who plays great defense and will hopefully be a part of a strong backcourt with whomever the Grizzlies eventually choose to be their PG of the future.

6.) New York Knicks: Danilo Gallinari
J: Gallinari is fairly young and posted a 19.3 PER in the Euroleague this season. Historically, this is a high enough mark to suggest that he will be able to play in the NBA right away with a PER in the 11-13 range. At worst, a solid contributor, and at best, a great piece in Mike D'Antoni's offense who is young enough to get a lot better.
H: I agree with Jeremiah that Gallinari isn't necessarily the next best player available, but he brings a different atmosphere with him to the Knicks and this pick is by no means a reach. I think this pick would mark a strong effort to start rebuilding a franchise that has gotten so off-course and begin moving in a new direction.

7.) Los Angeles Clippers: Russell Westbrook
H: I'm not a big fan of Westbrook, but the Clippers are losing seven players this off-season and they'll still have a viable starter at each position except at PG. Westbrook will probably take a few years to develop as he settles into his new role (his PG/SG role was consistently morphing while at UCLA) but the franchise appears to be in no hurry to make a playoff run.
J: It's scary to draft Westbrook this high, since he won't be able to contribute much offensively as a rookie, but he does have the frame and athleticism to get better. A gamble, but worst-case is a defensive guard off the bench.

8.) Milwaukee Bucks: Joe Alexander
J: I'm bolstered by Hollinger's strong projection behind this pick. Then again, his system liked Tyrus Thomas too, who as Chad Ford points out, is another athletic, high-energy player who looks lost on the basketball court. Nonetheless I like Alexander. He is an 'upside pick', but, anecdotally, he has the work ethic to make the most of it.
H: I oscillate everyday between really liking this guy and not understanding his appeal. Either way I think this spot accurately represents his skill level relative to what's available.

9.) Charlotte Bobcats: Eric Gordon
H: I honestly don't know what I was doing with this pick. I don't like Felton but drafting Augustin just cause he apparently won't fit Larry Brown's system, as suggested by some, just seems wasteful. This team has gone nowhere in its four years and seem bent on establishing themselves as the Tampa Bay Devil Rays (they're still the Devil Rays in my mind no matter what management says) of the NBA. Gordon was falling and I just swooped in and grabbed in.
J: I still don't know what to think about Gordon. His rebound and assist totals are scarily low, and you can't trust his shooting numbers because of his late-season, injury-related slump. He could be a very good, if one-dimensional, scorer but also a flat out bust.

10.) New Jersey Nets: Brook Lopez
J: I see Lopez as a nice big man off the bench. He has a solid Hollinger projection, and is big and skilled. He shoots a low percentage but will be able to get his jump shots off with impunity thanks to his height. Not a lot of upside, but seems like a pretty safe bet to make a contribution.

11.) Indiana Pacers: Anthony Randolph
H: The third pick I don't enjoy making. I'm not a big fan of Randolph but the Pacers are set for the next four years at PG with Tinsley, ruling out Augustin. The main justification for taking Randolph is the Pacers' lack of a defined need and the fact they are just starting to rebuild and Randolph is a long-term project. At 18 he's the youngest player in the draft and though Hollinger has made special note of Randolph's potential shortcomings the Pacers might as well take the gamble given that they don't really have anything to lose.
J: Randolph was quite inefficient this season but is at least 18 and athletic. Gerald Wallace is an example of a similar player who after his freshman season was if anything, even rawer than Randolph at the same age, yet has gone on to be a pretty good player in the NBA.

12.) Sacramento Kings: D.J. Augustin
J: Augustin's pure point rating is more solid than spectacular (in truth, I prefer Ty Lawson, but he withdrew), and thus I see him more as a very good backup point who will score and distribute. For the Kings, that's enough to take the starting job.
H: This ordering worked out perfect for the Kings who just dealt Mike Bibby and immediately get a chance to begin finding his replacement.

13.) Portland Trailblazers: Mario Chalmers
H: I have been salivating over Chalmers' numbers for sometime now and John Hollinger corroborated my admiration of Chalmers with his PER regression study. Chalmers is undersized at 6'1" but a tremendous defender for his stature and a PG whose distributing ability continues to improve as his turnovers/40 numbers have plummeted each year (4.1/3.1/2.5). He plays off the ball well too, nailing over 45% of his 3pt FG attempts last year and this'll allow Brandon Roy to remain as a primary ball-handler on the offensive end. This pick would also allow the Trailblazers to move Steve Blake to the bench where he rightfully belongs.

14.) Golden State Warriors: Marreese Speights
J: Speights is an underrated scorer and rebounder. I perhaps should have taken Darrell Arthur here as Speights will need to improve his conditioning to fit in with Golden State (he only played about 25 minutes a game at Florida) but what can I say, I've been enamored with Speights ever since he posted a PER of 41 in limited minutes as a freshman. A classic 20-10 college power forward.
H: A reach in some people's minds but I really think people are underrating his numbers. I like Speights's potential and only qualm with him is the horrific spelling of his first name.

15.) Phoenix Suns: Brandon Rush
H: At 22 Rush may have limited upside but the Suns are in a win now mentality and Rush fits their system perfectly as a big wing who can shoot from range and also is a top-notch defender. He'll be there Raja Bell 2.0 presuming they don't sell this pick, which is always a possibility.

16.) Philadelphia 76ers: Darrell Arthur
J: I have to admit, I was not big on Arthur but his strong Hollinger projection has gone a long way to soothe some of my fears. Additionally, he was one of the key players on an absolutely loaded Kansas team, and it seems a good bet that on a team that was so dominant, there are bound to be some solid pros. The concern is his motor, but he would solidify Philadelphia's frontcourt rotation.
H: What I said for Speights goes for Arthur too. I think he'll fit nicely alongside Dalembert or as a role player off the bench.

17.) Toronto Raptors: Kosta Koufos
H: Koufos suits the Raptors' deficiency at the 5 spot and makes Radoslav Nesterovic and his $8 million expiring contract more expendable. I prefer Koufos over some of the other mid-late 1st round centers like DeAndre Jordan, Robin Lopez, and JaVale McGee because of his ability to get a decent number of blocks per 40 (2.8) without drawing too many fouls (3.3) and more importantly turned the ball over only 2.3 times per 40 while handling the rock far more often than all of the players mentioned above.

18.) Washington Wizards: DeAndre Jordan
J: I've never been a fan of Jordan, as he fits the stereotype of the classic bust center (then again, so did Andrew Bynum). Yet with his stock falling, it's worth mentioning that a similarly raw and young center, Sam Dalembert, turned out to be a useful player for Philadelphia after a few years. I don't see Jordan as a future star but at #18, he is good value.

19.) Cleveland Cavaliers: Chris Douglas-Roberts
H: The Cavs are really in need of better players at any position and ones who don't mimic the skill sets of others (ie: Pavlovic and Szczerbiak, Varajao and Wallace). CDR provides a scoring threat off the bench that isn't based around sitting and waiting for a teammate to draw a double-team and then dish them the ball. CDR will hopefully providing a slashing and driving attack that'll diversify the Cavs' offensive threat and ease the load on Lebron.
J: Don't forget that Chris Douglas-Roberts has apparently never lost a game of one-on-one. His numbers compare to a litany of bench shooting guards, but watching him play, he's anything but generic. Don't rule out the possibility that his unorthodox scoring abilities will serve him very well with the right team.

20.) Denver Nuggets: Alexis Ajinca
J: Okay I admit that I drafted Ajinca because I didn't really see any pressing needs for the Nuggets. Consider it my 'what the hell' pick. From what I've read about Ajinca, and after seeing Chad Ford's surprising condemnation of him, he probably isn't worth drafting this high.
H: I just started laughing when I saw this pick because I immediately knew Jeremiah's motives and concurred with them.

21.) New Jersey Nets: Richard Hendrix
H: This pick along with the 10th selection give the Nets two shots at strengthening their frontline. I reached for Hendrix over the other big men projected to go in the latter half of the first round but I feel it's justified. He mounted a grueling scoring record at 22.3 pts/40 while shooting 60% from the field. He rebounds at a strong rate (12.7), gets a decent number of blocks relative to fouls (2.5/3.7), doesn't turn the ball over (2.2), and grabs a surprising number of steals given his position (2.5). Overall, he's much more well-rounded than the any of the alternatives. Also props to Jeremiah for finding this sleeper, I couldn't pass up the opportunity to pick him though I'm sure Jeremiah would've preferred to, hehe.
J: Richard Hendrix is my boy! Unfortunately, he had a surprisingly low projected PER or I might have recommended that he go higher. It does seem odd to me that scouts are not higher on a player who is both athletic and productive, so this may be a sign that they know something I don't.

22.) Orlando Magic: Robin Lopez
J: Neither of the Lopez twins really get me excited, but Robin even less so. Supposedly he'll be an energy guy, but I feel that GMs are forgetting that players who were stars in college become energy guys in the pros and players who were energy guys in college head overseas in three years. The comparison to Joakim Noah is thus misguided, because Noah was a dominant and far more productive college player. Nonetheless, he's one of the best big men remaining at the board at this point. Also, I forgot about Roy Hibbert.
H: If you're noticing a big men trend, you're not the only one. This pick marks the 6th frontcourt player in the last seven picks, and the trend's not gonna stop yet.

23.) Utah Jazz. Roy Hibbert
H: I was initially looking in other directions (a better backup for Deron Williams would be nice) but reconsidered when I realized that Jarron Collins is the first man off the bench backing up Mehmet Okur. Hibbert hasn't always been the most aggressive player and he's pretty much already reached his peak, but the Jazz won't be demanding a whole lot from this selection. Hibbert should easily provide the defense and finishing ability (two of his best traits) the Jazz need from a big man off the bench.

24.) Seattle Supersonics: Donte Greene
J: Young enough to get better, but was a very inefficient player at Syracuse. Nonetheless, he should be able to create his own shot in the NBA, being a tall jump-shooter, and that's a first-round type of skill.
H: I really believe he's overrated given his numbers and I think his falling to the Sonics sufficiently illustrates our assessment of his skill set.

25.) Houston Rockets: Jason Thompson
H: They need a big guy to backup Yao, Jason Thompson's a big guy. He's also very good at rebounding.

26.) San Antonio Spurs: J.J. Hickson
J: Hickson's numbers are pretty good for a freshman, yet there is a certain stigma attached to him for playing on an awful team. I don't want to rely too much on team success, but it is a factor, and Hickson couldn't even bring NC State to a .500 level. Still, he's got some upside and would be a nice pick this late in the first round.

27.) New Orleans Hornets: JaVale McGee
H: Take word for word what I said about the Rockets' pick of Thompson, except replace "Yao" with "Chandler" and "rebounding" with "shot blocking".
J: The thing is, if centers aren't dominant in college, they usually don't amount to much in the NBA, where there are many more players who are their size. And it's worse if they're in a small conference. A Jason Thompson has fantastic numbers, but history says that it doesn't mean much playing for Rider. McGee played for Nevada, which is a little higher up the food chain, but was anything but dominant. A scary proposition when he couldn't really do much in a non-power conference.

28.) Memphis Grizzlies: Ryan Anderson
J: A couple years ago, I would have been all over Ryan Anderson as a sleeper, as he was a very productive scorer and rebounder at Cal. However, time has taught me that productivity does not always translate to NBA success (although lack of productivity generally translates to NBA failure), and in the case of Anderson, his woefully low steal and block totals imply that he doesn't have the athleticism to score at the same rates in the pros. Nonetheless, he's a nice pick at #28. Being tall and a very good shooter, he ought to be able to play a role off the bench.


29.) Detroit Pistons: Bill Walker
H: The forgotten sidekick of Michael Beasley. I actually think he's good enough to warrant a pick 6-7 slots higher but given the lack of star talent in this draft I felt team needs should play a larger role than small differences in skills. I'm a little perturbed by his complete lack of outside shooting but he rebounds very well for his size and is a very efficient and potent scorer inside the arc.
J: Walker is the kind of player who could be a huge steal in the late first or early second round. His numbers aren't overwhelming, but he's had a lot of injury problems and has shown some talent. It's not out of the question that he could turn out to be very good, although he would be a big risk with a higher pick, which makes him great for Detroit at 29.

30.) Boston Celtics: George Hill
J: Yeah, George Hill is a 6'2" shooting guard from a small conference. History has not been kind to these types of players. But goddamn, averaging 21.5 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 4.3 assists while shooting 45% from 3 is worth some major props. He showcased a versatile and flat-out dominant game at IUPUI, and apart from scoring 30 plus points a night, did everything possible to earn a long look at the end of the first round. Thanks to Hugh for the suggestion to take him here.
H: My big sleeper of the 2008 draft. Throughout the season I'll be routing heavily for Hill and Chalmers to validate my praise for them.