Three for One Scouting Report: Mayo, Bayless, and Gordon

In my mind, I always lump O.J. Mayo, Jerryd Bayless, and Eric Gordon together. All are shooting guards, although Mayo and Bayless lay claims to playing the point. All were 20+ point per game scorers as freshmen, with developed perimeter games. Bayless and Gordon also were great at getting to the foul line. All show a lack of versatility that could indicate their overratedness as prospects.

First, the numbers (pace-adjusted, per 40 statistics taken from draftexpress.com):

Bayless: 22.7 pts, 3.1 rbs, 4.6 asts, 40.7% 3P, 1.1 stls, 8.5 FTA, -0.85 PPR
Mayo: 22.8 pts, 5.0 rbs, 3.6 asts, 40.9% 3P, 1.7 stls, 5.1 FTA, -3.71 PPR
Gordon: 24.0 pts, 3.7 rbs, 2.8 asts, 33.7% 3P, 1.5 stls, 9.9 FTA, -5.72 PPR

Normally, I would say that in particular, Gordon's lack of versatility kills him as a prospect. His and Bayless' low rates of rebounding are usually signs that they are players whose scoring gifts will not translate to the NBA. However, it is very rare for short guards like Bayless and Gordon to get to the foul line so often, and guards who got to the line more often than 8.0 FTA per 40 in college are a fairly successful group. This includes Allen Iverson, Dwyane Wade, Larry Hughes, Jerry Stackhouse, Corey Maggette, Ruben Patterson, and Bonzi Wells. Apart from Iverson, these are all actually bigger guards than Bayless and Gordon, suggesting the uniqueness of the two.

As for Mayo, his more solid all-around game gives him less bust potential in my mind. He is certainly the best rebounder of the three and the best at getting steals. His turnover rate is quite high, but I am willing to chalk this up to being put in the alpha dog role as a freshman. The burning question for me is whether or not Mayo can actually play the point. A look at some other scoring combo guards who could pass might be useful. Stephon Marbury, who came up as a comparable player to Jerryd Bayless under my similarity scores system had a pure point rating of -0.57, but has a career mark of 5.57 in the NBA. Now, Marbury is obviously not a pass-first player himself, but I don't think anyone is expecting Bayless to become the next Paul. As for Mayo, his PPR is probably too low for me to project him gaining more than spot duty at the point, but it is worth noting that a comparable player to him, Chauncey Billups, had a PPR of -2.57 as a freshman before improving to 0.92 as a sophomore.

Ultimately, I rank the three in the following order: Mayo, Bayless, and then Gordon. All are solid prospects who project as NBA starters but carry much more risk than Beasley or Rose. Given their youth, their flaws should be ironed out in time, but I wouldn't necessarily expect any of the three to make an immediate impact on a team next year. It is close between Mayo and Bayless as to which is better, but Mayo's size and rebounding imply to me that he has less chance of being a bust, whereas Bayless' low rebounding and steal numbers are potential red flags. Mayo also should be the superior defender. Eric Gordon is a big risk to me - I do believe that based on his free-throw drawing ability and perimeter shooting, he will be able to score at a high level in the NBA. I should note that I am assuming that he is a better 3-point shooter than his final season numbers show. He was shooting .411 from 3 before a 10 for 62 slump at the end of the year. Considering that this slump coincided with both a wrist injury and team turmoil surrounding the firing of Kelvin Sampson, I am willing to believe that he is closer to a .411 shooter than a .337 shooter from 3. Even so, his upside is as a pure scorer with more or less zero contribution in other facets of the game, and it is possible he could bust altogether. In a stronger draft, Gordon might be better suited as a later lottery pick, but the depth of this draft is questionable.

Final Verdict: Mayo looks like a solid #4 pick in the draft, Bayless #5, and despite my qualms, I would take Gordon at #6 as well.