Scouting Reports: Derrick Rose

Derrick Rose
6'3" 190 lbs
Freshman PG, Memphis

Pace-adjusted, per-40 statistics (from draftexpress.com)

19.5 pts, 5.9 rbs, 6.2 asts, 3.5 TOs, 1.6 stls, 52.3 2FG%, 33.7 3FG%

Although I have cast my lot with Beasley for the #1 pick, Rose is one of three players in the draft who I think is a sure-fire NBA starter and a likely All-Star. The question is whether he will develop more as a scoring point guard, ala Baron Davis, or a superior passer, like Chris Paul and Deron Williams. Based on his statistics, the Baron Davis comparison is particularly apt:

Baron Davis - age 19 (sophomore) (pace-adjusted, per-40)

19.3 pts, 4.4 rbs, 6.2 asts, 4.0 TOs, 3.0 stls, 54.8 2FG%, 34.3 3FG%

The comparison between these two players is an apt one. They are both about the same size, and had very similar college statistics. Rose was the superior rebounder and Davis the superior ball thief, although Davis also committed more personal fouls. I had been concerned about Rose's mediocre 3-point shooting, but Davis, although never becoming a great shooter, has been good enough, as shooting is probably the easiest skill to improve in the NBA.

Ultimately, I think that Rose grades out based on the numbers as a player who may have a similar career to Baron Davis - although Davis took awhile to develop, his career is certainly worth the #2 pick in this draft. Yet some analysts have compared Rose to Chris Paul with Deron Williams' size. At first glance, these comparisons seem off, as Rose's pure point rating was a less than stellar 1.52, while Chris Paul posted PPRs of 3.73 and 4.76 in college, and Deron Williams, whose PPR was above 4.0 all 3 years in college, posted a 4.96 his junior year. DraftExpress has argued that his assist numbers are deflated because Memphis' dribble-drive motion offense is "not conducive to racking up assists." This raises intriguing questions that I unfortunately cannot answer, but may determine how good of a prospect he is. If Rose truly could have averaged 8 assists per 40, as Paul and Williams did, with a different team, then I would consider him a prospect equal to Beasley. His statistics suggest a player who will average about 20 points and 8 assists per game at his peak in the NBA, making him an All-Star, but not a franchise-type player, yet the possibility that he may be a superior passer who was hampered by the Memphis system could make him worthy of the #1 pick. It is up to NBA scouts to answer this question for themselves.

Final Verdict: Whether or not he is truly a franchise PG, it is hard to go wrong with a player who at the very least, looks like the second coming of Baron Davis. You don't find many draft prospects who you can pencil in for ten solid years as a starter in the NBA, but Rose looks like one of them.

Derrick Rose Shot Breakdown:

Dunks/Tip-ins: 5% of shots, 95.0% FG
Layups: 34% of shots, 61.1% FG
2-point jumpers: 38% of shots, 37.1% FG
3-point jumpers: 23% of shots, 33.7% FG